The Ten Stages of the Russian Genocide in Ukraine

The Ten Stages of the Russian Genocide in Ukraine

By Emily Mullin

And the Genocide Watch Ukraine Team

Talks about a negotiated settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine have dominated international headlines. As many hope that President Trump can talk Mr. Putin into ending the Russian invasion, we must never forget the incalculable suffering Russia has inflicted on the Ukrainian people.

Russia has committed every war crime and crime against humanity, including relentless, indiscriminate attacks against civilians, systematic torture, mass rape, and the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.

The war in Ukraine is a genocide. The Russian government has set out to intentionally destroy the Ukrainian nation. Russia has committed every act of genocide listed in Article 2 of the Genocide Convention:

“In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:(a) Killing members of the group;(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

In analyzing the phenomenon of genocide, Genocide Watch, a non-governmental organization founded by Gregory Stanton in 1999, uses “The Ten Stages of Genocide.” The model is not linear.[1] The processes of genocide don’t occur in a fixed order. Many occur simultaneously. The “Ten Stages of Genocide” is an early warning model that that breaks down the development of genocide into ten predictable processes: Classification, Symbolization, Discrimination, Dehumanization, Organization, Polarization, Preparation, Persecution, Extermination, and Denial. A powerful feature of the model is that it suggests tactics to slow or stop each of the genocidal processes.

Mass killing does not occur out of the blue. It is a product of years of discrimination and dehumanization by the perpetrator. As societies exhibit more and more genocidal processes, they get nearer to genocide. The model isn’t linear, but it is logical like a Matrioshka doll. Each stage has within it other stages. At each stage, societies at risk can take measures to stop or prevent genocide from developing.

This analysis breaks down Russia’s genocide against Ukraine using the Ten Stage Model.

All stages are present in Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine.

For centuries, Russia has laid the groundwork for carrying out its current genocide against the Ukrainian nation. Since 1793, the Russian Empire ruled Ukraine. Putin’s aggression is an attempt to reimpose Russia’s domination. Russia’s new imperialism began with its invasion of Crimea in 2014. In 2022, Russia’s full-scale invasion began its merciless attempt to reimpose the systematic repression of Ukraine’s national identity under the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.

1. Classification: At this stage, social groups are classified into “us versus them.” Classification lays the groundwork for genocide by denying the legitimate citizenship of the targeted group.

Russia systematically classifies Ukrainians as inferior to Russians. The Kremlin denies Ukraine’s independent identity, sovereignty, and legitimacy, portraying Ukraine as an artificial or illegitimate nation and Ukrainians as “Little Russians”.

Putin even claims that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people.” Russian propaganda labels those who consider themselves Ukrainians, especially their leaders, as “Nazis” and “Western puppets” to depict them as a hostile enemy, like the Germans who invaded Russia and Ukraine in World War II.

2. Symbolization: The classifications are symbolized. Groups are distinguished by their language, dress, names, religion, and customs. In some cases, symbols are imposed on the targeted group (e.g. yellow stars). New identity cards may be issued in the language of the perpetrator, and the targeted group is required to carry them.

Symbolization in the war against Ukraine is present in Russia’s prohibition of the Ukrainian language, Russification of place names, revision of historical references in educational curricula, prohibition of the display of Ukrainian national emblems, and imposition of Russian names on individual identification documents

Ukrainian national symbols, like the flag and trident, are demonized and banned. Ukrainian signage is removed, street names are replaced with Russian names. Russian is the only language permitted on public signs. Russian is the only language permitted in public places.

Russian authorities in occupied areas issue new Russian passports and birth certificates to Ukrainians, a denial of their Ukrainian identity and proof of the Russian intent to destroy the Ukrainian nation. Ukrainian identity is forcibly altered – residents are pressured to obtain Russian passports.

Discrimination: Perpetrators use legal or cultural power to exclude groups from full civil rights (e.g. the German Nuremberg Laws, American segregation, or South African apartheid laws).

Russia systematically oppresses and discriminates against Ukrainians. Ukrainians in occupied territories face severe legal and political discrimination. The process of forced Russification includes the banning of the Ukrainian language, culture, and education, closing Ukrainian churches, and dismantling local governance.

Ukrainians are denied the right to Ukrainian personal identities. They are pressured to accept Russian passports, with refusal leading to economic penalties, restrictions, or arrest. Simply identifying oneself as Ukrainian in occupied areas carries significant risk of arrest, exclusion from commercial dealings, and suppression of Ukrainian Orthodox religious worship.

Resistance to Russian occupation is met with detention, torture, or forced disappearance. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian children have been forcibly taken to Russia, subjected to ideological reprogramming, and placed in Russian families through forced adoptions.

Many Ukrainian Orthodox churches have been closed, with Russia promoting the Moscow-affiliated Russian Orthodox church, eliminating religious freedom.

The full extent of human rights abuses in occupied territories is not yet well documented, with many atrocities only coming to light when areas have been retaken by Ukrainian forces. Genocide Watch is working with Ukrainian NGOs, Truth Hounds and a Luhansk NGO, to document Russian oppression in occupied territories.

3. Dehumanization: This stage is where the genocidal vortex pulls entire societies into its depths. The victim group is portrayed as subhuman. The targeted group is called animals or likened to disease, vermin, rats, cancer or plague (e.g. referring to Tutsis in Rwanda as “cockroaches”).

In preparation for its invasion of Ukraine, Russian propaganda fed Russians dehumanizing rhetoric about Ukrainians. Russian leaders refer to Ukrainians as “Nazis,” “Nazi filth,” “Nazi scum,” “Nazi tumors” “brain cancers,” “bestial,” “zombified,” “subordinate elements of an alien civilization,” “diseased or contaminated,” and the “epitome of evil.” Such language is designed to strip Ukrainians of their humanity. Ukrainian leaders are classified as “drug addicts” to delegitimize them and justify their replacement in areas conquered by Russia.

Putin and the Russian Army deny the value of Ukrainian human life. They characterize Ukrainian men as criminals and Ukrainian women as prostitutes. Dehumanizing language conditions Russian soldiers to believe that their murders, torture, rape, sadism and war crimes are justified.

A stark example of Russia’s genocidal intent is in a 2022 article published by Russian state news that called for the “de-Ukrainianization” of the country, arguing that Ukrainians who resist occupation should be “re-educated” or “eliminated.” Such slur-laden rhetoric is in social media platforms like X and Telegram. which reach international audiences.

4. Organization: At this stage, hate groups are organized, militias are trained and armed, convicted murderers are recruited into the army, and the armed forces are purged of officers, recruits, and any others who might oppose genocide.

Russia’s actions against Ukraine are highly organized by Russian federal and regional authorities, locally hired occupation officials, the Russian military, and non-state militias like the former Wagner Group, and local proxies.

These organizations enforce Russian control, suppress resistance, and perpetrate systematic human rights abuses through military operations, police terror, and oppressive administrative rule, particularly in occupied territories and filtration camps.

Russian filtration camps in occupied territories serve as a centers of repression, subjecting Ukraine to a system of security checks and personal data collection, including body searches, interrogations about personal background, family ties, and political views and allegiances. Interrogations are marked by physical and psychological abuse.

Ukrainians identified as having any ties to Ukrainian forces or State institutions or possessing pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian views face arbitrary detention, torture, disappearances, and

deportation to exile in Russian and Siberian prisons. Ukrainians who fail filtration interrogations are often tortured, in a Russian strategy to eliminate Ukrainian resistance to subjugation.

Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) endure systematic abuse, including torture, sexual assault, and psychological torment. Russian authorities subject many POWs – including officers, specialized personnel, and those affiliated with particular battalions - to especially harsh conditions, including freezing cold, overcrowding in tiny cells infected with typhus and antibiotic resistant tuberculosis, starvation, sleep deprivation, and total lack of medical care.

Brutal interrogations and torture of POWs, including beatings, electrocution, hard labor, and psychological terror, are used to extract confessions and break prisoners’ will. POWs are forced to memorize the Russian anthem and propaganda and are denied any contact with the International Red Cross and other humanitarian organizations.

These coordinated, state-backed measures reveal a deliberate, organized effort to dismantle Ukraine’s cultural, national, and ethnic identity. Russia’s organized filtration and detention systems that target Ukrainians are strong evidence of Russia’s genocidal intent to destroy the Ukrainian nation. They are proof of the genocidal nature of Russia's aggression.

5. Polarization: At this stage, moderates are targeted, arrested, and assassinated. Hate propaganda emphasizes the “us versus them” ideology that drives genocide. “If you are not with us, you are against us.” There is no middle ground. Moderates who attempt to negotiate peace are denounced as traitors.

The rhetoric used in Russia by the government and media against Ukrainians treats dissenters like Navalny as traitors. They are arrested and murdered. Terror is used to create such fear of arrest that dissenters are afraid to speak out. Independent news sources are silenced. Journalists censor themselves so that everything they write or broadcast adheres to the line of Putin’s ruling party. The Russian population is convinced that the only acceptable way to think or talk is to conform to Putin’s party line. Categorizing ideas and practices as “non-Russian” and calling Ukrainians “Nazis” are intentional ways of othering them.

The Russian state uses social media to spread disinformation and anti-Ukraine propaganda. TikTok has removed over 12,000 fake accounts originating from Russia. Disinformation campaigns on Meta platforms target European support for Ukraine.

Russian propaganda falsely accuses Ukraine of discrimination against Russia and claims that Ukraine is responsible for the war by refusing to “surrender.” Despite Putin’s expressed intent to wholly absorb Ukraine, US President Trump has perpetuated this Russian disinformation by portraying Ukraine as the aggressor.

6. Preparation: During the preparation stage, plans are made for the genocide. Death lists are compiled. Trial massacres are conducted, both as training for the genocidists and to test whether there will be any international response. If there is no international denunciation or sanctions, genocidists know they can get away with their crimes. If there are no credible threats of armed international intervention, genocidists learn that they have a green light to invade and commit genocide with impunity.

In the months prior to the Russian invasion, Western intelligence agencies warned that the Russian attack was imminent. By March 31, 2022, Putin was physically prepared for invasion through the deployment of over 100,000 Russian troops along the border with Ukraine and within Crimea. The Kremlin also deployed naval forces in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. They assembled supply lines, including medical units to support the invasion. These preparations demonstrated a well-thought-out plan to invade Ukraine and sustain the war of conquest of all of Ukraine.

For over two decades under Putin’s dictatorship, dissenting voices within Russia were systematically silenced. Russia’s media companies were forced to submit to state control.

Today, Putin rules Russia virtually unchallenged. In April 2023, Russian lawmakers passed a bill requiring life sentences for those convicted of treason. The Russian government has threatened to imprison all protestors and anyone who shares information that contradicts the official Russian narrative on the war.

For centuries, Russia has viewed Ukraine as critical to its empire. For years, Putin has been vocal and transparent about his desire to retake Ukraine and absorb it into a Russian dominated state.

Putin illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and suffered only weak financial sanctions. Putin outlined his plans to reestablish Russian rule in Ukraine in his 2021 essay "On the Unity of Russians and Ukrainians," in which he openly questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine’s borders and reiterated the idea of Ukrainians and Russians as “one people.”

Russian rhetoric, ideology, and military coordination with foreign allies (North Korea, Iran, China, and others) have made Russia’s intent clear: to wholly absorb or completely destroy Ukraine, with the intent to destroy any independent Ukrainian national identity.

7. Persecution – In this stage, the victim group’s most basic human rights are systematically violated through extrajudicial killings, torture, forced displacement, and expropriation.

Russia has committed extensive war crimes in Ukraine, including mass executions and the relentless bombardment of civilian dwellings, power plants, and dams. Russia has used incendiary weapons prohibited by international law. It has targeted and killed both soldiers and civilians in areas it captures.

Rape and sexual assault by Russian troops is widespread in areas Russia invades and in occupied territories. War crimes are inflicted upon Ukrainian civilians of all genders and ages with the deliberate aim of destroying existing and future generations. These crimes include forced pregnancies resulting from rape by Russian soldiers and genital mutilation to hinder and prevent procreation, direct violations of Article 2(d) of the Genocide Convention.

In addition to torture and rape, Russia has abducted tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, forcibly placing them in Russian “re-education camps” with the intention of erasing their Ukrainian identities. These kidnappings and other war crimes violate the Geneva Conventions as interpreted in the UN Security Council’s six grave violations against children in times of war.

The systematic forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia is an act of genocide directly prohibited by Article 2(e) of the Genocide Convention.

Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russian commissioner for children's rights, who are responsible for this kidnapping have been charged by the International Criminal Court for these abductions and deportations.

Children are separated from their families at filtration camps and placed in “re-education” camps or Russian forced adoption processes - an effort to erase their Ukrainian identity. Russia has fast-tracked these processes through targeted legislation and propaganda.

Russia’s persecution extends to the eradication of all cultures that are considered non-Russian, including the culture of Crimean Tatars. The persecution of this ethnic minority dates back to the eighteenth century, and was at its apex when Stalin deported all Tatars to Siberia. Russia has intensified its oppression of Tatars since its 2014 invasion of Crimea. Since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has intensified its widespread arrests, imprisonment, and torture of Crimean Tatars.

Recent discussions between Putin and President Trump about ending the war have included proposals by Putin and Trump for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, specifically Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Trump tries to justify this appeasement by claiming that he wants to stop the heavy losses of Russian forces that have resulted from Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. The parallel is the appeasement by Neville Chamberlain of Hitler at Munich, where the Nazi dictator won territory without military action by making a false promise of peace. The result was the Nazi invasion of Europe and the Holocaust.

8. Extermination: At this stage, the killing legally defined as genocide begins. Those who commit genocide often justify their mass murder by asserting that they are “purifying” their society by “exterminating” those who are less than human and are a threat to them.

Russian forces are engaged in acts of genocide by intentionally murdering Ukrainian civilians in areas they conquer. Russia’s relentless missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, its destruction of dams and power plants, its kidnapping of Ukrainian children, its mass murders and rapes prove that Russia’s policy is to deliberately inflict on Ukrainians conditions of life calculated to bring about Ukraine’s physical destruction.

Reliable estimates of deaths of Ukrainian troops stand at over 100,000 since the beginning of the war. The UN estimates that at least 153,000 Ukrainians have been killed by Russia, including both soldiers and civilians. 60,000 Ukrainians remain missing.

Russia also is also violating Article 13 of the Third Geneva Convention by executing prisoners of war (POWs).

Russia controls nearly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. According to the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 10.6 million Ukrainians have been displaced, with over 6.9 million spread across Europe. Ten percent of Ukrainian homes have been destroyed, and a quarter of the population is impoverished.

9. Denial: Denial runs from the beginning of the genocidal process and lasts long after the killing is over. Unless trials prove that genocide occurred and punish those who committed it, denial may last for over a hundred years, as it has in Turkey about the Armenian Genocide.

Perpetrators refuse to acknowledge their crimes. They destroy evidence, downplay victim numbers, and shift blame, even claiming that victims provoked the genocide. Killings are framed as spontaneous outbreaks rather than deliberate state policy, while eyewitnesses and critics are discredited.

Denial with impunity is the best predictor of future genocide. Countries that do not face their past crimes are over three times as likely to repeat them.

Russia continues to deny its past genocides against Ukraine. Russia refuses to acknowledge the Holodomor genocide of 1932 -1933, when over four million Ukrainians starved in Stalin’s man-made famine.

In March 2022, Russia passed censorship laws that criminalize calling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war.” Criticizing the war is a crime punishable by up to fifteen years in prison.

As the world reeled in shock from the Bucha massacre in March 2022, Russian officials dismissed the killings as a staged provocation by Ukrainian forces, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling it a "fake attack." Putin even awarded medals to the Russian troops who committed the Bucha atrocities.

Ahead of Ukraine’s full-scale invasion, Russia’s Supreme Court banned Memorial, a human rights group documenting Soviet political crimes. Russia denies all of its current crimes in Ukraine. Putin denies the mass rapes committed by Russian troops. Russia disguises its forced transfer of Ukrainian children as “rescue missions” and vacations to “summer camps”.

Conclusion

Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces continue to expand control over Ukrainian territory. They systematically commit widespread crimes against humanity, war crimes, and acts of genocide. In Russian occupied territories, the Ukrainian language, culture, and education are banned.

All over Ukraine, Russian missiles and drones indiscriminately target civilian apartment buildings, schools, and hospitals. Russia destroys Ukrainian power plants to freeze Ukrainians in winter. Russian troops rape, torture, and execute civilians. Russia has forcibly transferred tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.

The evidence is undeniable. Every stage of the Ten Stages of Genocide is present in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russia has committed every act of genocide in the Genocide Convention.

Since 2022, Putin’s rhetoric and policies have made it clear that this war is not just about territorial control but is aimed at the eradication of Ukrainian identity and destruction of the Ukrainian nation. Putin’s goal is Russian supremacy. He seeks to rip Ukrainian culture out of the multicolored tapestry of humanity.

This is genocide. The destruction of a culture impoverishes the whole human race. The US and all other nations must give Ukraine all the long range missiles and missile defences to defeat Putin’s aggression. We must reaffirm our commitment to justice and hold Putin and Russia accountable for their crimes. The time to stop this genocide is now.

[1] Dr. Stanton believes he should have simply used the word “Processes” rather than “Stages,” which wrongly implies a linear order. But his model is now so widely used that dropping “stages” would only confuse people.

This article is under Creative Commons copyright. It may be freely republished with full credit to its author, in its entirety and without alteration by non-profit entities. Profit making republishers must obtain a license.

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The Ten Stages of the Russian Genocide in Ukraine

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