Al-Shabab remains stronger than ever after two decades
The al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabab has regained significant territory in Somalia despite two decades of African Union-led military interventions and billions of dollars in international support, Foreign Policy reported.
The magazine said the United States has provided an estimated $3.6 billion since 2007 to support successive African Union peacekeeping missions in Somalia, including nearly $2 billion through United Nations support offices and about $1.6 billion in bilateral assistance to troop-contributing countries.
The report comes after the US announced in July that it would end support for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) by 31 December, effectively ending its financial backing for the current African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM).
According to Foreign Policy, AU forces have pushed Al-Shabab out of major urban centres, including Mogadishu, but the group continues to control or influence large areas of rural southern and central Somalia, where it has established parallel judicial and taxation systems.
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, told the magazine that Al-Shabab raises an estimated $100 million to $150 million annually through taxation, while Somalia’s government collects slightly more than $250 million.
The report also examined Ethiopia’s December 2006 military intervention in Somalia, which was backed diplomatically and through intelligence support by the United States. According to Norman, the intervention and subsequent US airstrikes helped Al-Shabab portray itself as a resistance movement against foreign forces.
Foreign Policy reported that Al-Shabab has since retaken much of the territory it lost during Somalia’s 2022–2023 military campaign. During a 2025 counteroffensive, the group advanced to within about 45 kilometres of Mogadishu.
As foreign forces begin withdrawing, analysts cited by the magazine have warned that Al-Shabab could exploit security vacuums, while uncertainty remains over whether Somali forces are prepared to assume full responsibility for national security.
In May 2026, Addis Standard reported that multilateral peacekeeping operations were facing an unprecedented crisis driven by geopolitical rivalries, political deadlock and severe funding shortages. The assessment, based on a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), warned that declining international support was threatening conflict-management efforts globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
The SIPRI analysis, published ahead of the International Day of United Nations Peacekeepers on 29 May, found that personnel deployed in multilateral peace operations worldwide had fallen to 78,633 by the end of 2025, a 17% decline from the previous year and the lowest level recorded in at least 25 years. SIPRI warned that continued deterioration could leave institutions such as the United Nations increasingly sidelined in global conflict management.
Sub-Saharan Africa remained a major theater for multilateral peace operations in 2025, hosting 18 missions. Nearly three-quarters of all peacekeeping personnel were deployed across five missions, four of them in Africa.
Among the key developments was the launch of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and included a 16-member Egyptian Armed Forces contingent. The mission emerged amid diplomatic tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia following Ethiopia’s 2024 memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on port access, although the two countries moved to restore security cooperation in 2025.
In February 2025, Ethiopia and Somalia announced an agreement on the deployment framework for Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) troops under AUSSOM, following talks in Mogadishu between senior military and intelligence officials. The agreement came shortly after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met in Addis Abeba to discuss regional security and stability in the Horn of Africa.
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