Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Report 2025

By Kolby Phillip

Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia on March 24. Photo: Serbian Presidency.

Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) is facing a grave political crisis because of threats from President Milorad Dodik of the Republika Srpska (RS) to secede from Bosnia and merge with neighboring Serbia. Dodik’s threats have reignited fear of a return to the civil war that tore apart Bosnia in 1992 – 1995. It was an ethnic civil war caused by the breakup of the former Yugoslavia in 1991-1992. The war was marked by the Srebrenica genocide, forced deportation of hundreds of thousands of Bosnian Muslims and Croatians from Serb controlled areas, and Serb-run concentration and rape camps reminiscent of the Holocaust.

Dodik’s secessionist and anti-Western rhetoric began after a joint conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in 2023. Dodik called for the “unification” of Serbs in Bosnia and Serbia. In 2024, while speaking at the “Srpska is calling you” rally protesting UN Resolution 78/282, which designated July 11 as an International Day of Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica, Dodik said “We do not want to live in the same state with you (Bosniaks) and we will not live in the same state with you […] We will do it (split) when the conditions are right.” 

Dodik denies the Srebrenica Genocide, which he calls a “fabricated myth.” Genocide denial is outlawed as incitement to genocide in Bosnia. On May 22, 2025, a Bosnian court sentenced Vojin Pavlovic, head of a Bosnian Serb NGO, to two-and-a-half years in prison for inciting hatred by denying the Srebrenica genocide and glorifying Ratko Mladic.

On February 26, 2025, Dodik was convicted of defying prohibitions on calling for separation from Bosnia by High Representative Christian Schmidt, a position created by the Dayton peace agreement to oversee its implementation. He was given a one-year prison sentence and a six-year ban from holding public office. Dodik dismissed the case as “purely political,” driven by “racial and national hatred [against Serbs].” Dodik has vowed to defy the sentence. Dodik has the support of Serbia’s Vucic, Russia’s Putin, and Hungarian President Viktor Orban

The trial and subsequent conviction of Dodik led to secessionist legislation in the RS parliament. The day after Dodik’s conviction, Republika Srpska’s parliament passed laws rejecting the authority of BiH’s prosecutors, judiciary, and other Bosnian agencies. On March 7, 2025, Bosnia-Herzegovina’s national police service was asked to leave Banja Luka, RS’s administrative center. On March 12, 2025, The Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia-Herzegovina issued an arrest warrant for Dodik. He has defied it. On March 14, 2025, Republika Srpska’s parliament adopted a new draft constitution that would give RS a standing army and a separate judiciary. The new constitution includes provisions for self-determination to permit RS to secede from Bosnia. Dodik has ordered RS to form its own border patrol.

Dodik has a deep hatred for Bosniak Muslims. In June 2024, The Jerusalem Post interviewed Dodik. He said that Israel can never live with Muslims. He said, “If we look back at history, there has never been a peaceful coexistence between Palestinians and Jews, in the same way that coexistence is not possible here, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, between Muslims and Serbs.” 

After a meeting with Vucic in April 2025, Dodik blamed Bosniaks for the escalation of tensions in Bosnia-Herzegovina, stating, “Bosniaks from Sarajevo want an armed conflict in BiH. Their motivation comes from their decades-long efforts to take revenge on Serbs, believing they must eliminate every Serb who does not fit into their projections.” Such genocidal “mirroring” – accusing the adversary of planning genocide – is a significant early warning sign of intent to commit genocide in “self-defense.”

Dodik denies Bosniaks' ethnic and religious identity. In April 2025 , he claimed that the only way Bosnia-Herzegovina could function is if Bosniaks “return to the Orthodox faith.”  He predicted, “BiH is not what it claims to be. It will disintegrate. I am also glad about that.”

Genocide Watch considers Bosnia-Herzegovina to be at Stage 1: Classification, Stage 3: Discrimination, Stage 4: Dehumanization, Stage 5: Organization, Stage 6: Polarization, Stage 7: Preparation, and Stage 10: Denial.

Genocide Watch Recommends:

·       Dodic must be imprisoned and replaced as President of Republika Srpska.

·       The new President of Republika Srpska must support remaining part of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

·       Republika Srpska must accept the decisions of The Constitutional Court of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

·       NATO should prepare for renewed civil war in Bosnia and offer full support to the Bosnian government.