Country report: Myanmar October 2026
By H. H. Hlaing
Since gaining independence in 1948, Myanmar has experienced prolonged conflict between the Bamar-dominated government and ethnic minority groups, including the Rohingya. The persecution of the Rohingya intensified under the military rule of General Ne Win, who seized power in 1962. His regime promoted Burmanisation and Buddhification, which marginalized ethnic and religious minorities, including the Rohingya in Rakhine State. In 1978, Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and immigration authorities carried out Operation Nagamin (Dragon King), officially presented as an effort to identify citizens and noncitizens before a national census. The campaign involved the confiscation of identity documents, destruction of homes, and other abuses against Rohingya communities, forcing an estimated 200,000–250,000 people to flee across the Naf River to Bangladesh by May 1978. The Rohingya who remained in Myanmar faced further exclusion under the 1982 Citizenship Law, which left most effectively stateless.
In 2016 and 2017, Tatmadaw launched genocidal operations in northern Rakhine State involving mass killings, rape, and village burning. At least 6,700 Rohingya, including at least 730 children under five, were estimated to have been killed in the first month of the 2017 crackdown, while hundreds of villages were destroyed. The violence forced more than 700,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh, where many settled in refugee camps around Cox’s Bazar.
The Feb.1, 2021 military coup expanded the conflict beyond Rakhine State into a nationwide civil war. The military removed the elected government, arrested political opponents, and violently suppressed protests, while People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) expanded their armed resistance. Since the coup, the military has carried out airstrikes on civilian areas, artillery attacks, arbitrary detention, torture, sexual violence, and village destruction. Meanwhile, the Arakan Army (AA) has gained control of much of Rakhine State, but it has not recognized the ethnic identity of Rohingya or offered equal protection. Instead, Rohingya have faced mistreatment and restrictions on work and detention. In addition, the Tatmadaw has forcibly recruited more than 1,000 Rohingya men and boys since February 2024, offering some payments or citizenship documents and deploying them near the front lines. Facing threats and abuses from both the Tatmadaw and the AA, as many as 200,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh since late 2023, many remain unregistered and face barriers to humanitarian assistance.
Civilians across Myanmar continue to face military violence and a severe humanitarian crisis. The United Nations verified at least 702 civilian deaths attributed to the military between August 2025 and January 2026, including 224 women and 153 children. As of July 2026, nearly 3.8 million people were internally displaced, while 16.2 million needed humanitarian assistance. By the end of September 2026, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) had recorded 32,046 political arrests and 8,477 people killed by the junta since the 2021 coup.
The junta has sought to legitimize military rule through unfair and illegitimate elections in December 2025 and January 2026. It coerced civilians to vote through threats of conscription and the denial of humanitarian aid and essential services. Moreover, at the January 2026 hearings in The Gambia’s genocide case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Myanmar rejected allegations of genocide against the Rohingya, describing the 2016–2017 military operations as counterterrorism measures to combat the armed groups. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor has sought an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s former commander-in-chief and president, for alleged crimes against humanity against the Rohingya, including deportation and persecution.
Due to the denial of citizenship and restrictions on movement, education, health care, livelihoods, and political participation, Myanmar is at Stage 3: Discrimination. Due to forced displacement, forced recruitment, arbitrary detention, restrictions on humanitarian aid, and other abuses against Rohingya civilians, Myanmar is at Stage 8: Persecution. Due to killings, sexual violence, village destruction, and the life-threatening deprivation of food and medical care, Myanmar is at Stage 9: Extermination. Myanmar is also at Stage 10: Denial as its authorities have rejected genocide allegations before the ICJ and portrayed the 2016–2017 operations as counter-terrorism measures.
Genocide Watch recommends:
The Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army cease attacks on civilians, forced recruitment, arbitrary detention, and forced labor, and lift restrictions on civilian movement and humanitarian access, including Rohingya communities.
States with universal jurisdiction prosecute Myanmar officials responsible for genocide and other crimes against the Rohingya and other ethnic groups.
ICC States Parties cooperate with the Court’s investigation and execute arrest warrants against Senior General Min Aung Hlaing once it is issued.
Myanmar’s neighboring states provide safe passage and protection for Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution and ensure that any returns to Myanmar are voluntary, safe, and dignified.
UN agencies, including UNHCR, OCHA, OHCHR, and the IIMM, should increase humanitarian assistance to Rohingya and other displaced civilians and support efforts to document international crimes.
