Lebanon Country Report 2026
August 2026
By Aiden Carlton
Genocide Watch
![A man waves a Lebanese flag as he stands amid the rubble of a building destroyed in Israeli strikes, in Tyre, Lebanon, November 27, 2024 [Adnan Abidi/Reuters]](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b74bf7_1b47be851e824560af99ae167697212f~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_770,h_513,al_c,q_90,enc_avif,quality_auto/b74bf7_1b47be851e824560af99ae167697212f~mv2.png)
On April 16, 2026, a United States (US)-brokered ceasefire took effect in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, who have been engaged in a multi-staged armed conflict since October 8, 2024, following Hamas’ invasion of Israel the day prior, in which it committed genocidal attacks on Israeli civilians, killing over 1,200 and kidnapping 150. The two sides have made progress in talks, but violence has continued since then, threatening the tenuous agreement. Most of this continued violence has come from Israeli strikes and incursions into southern Lebanon, with Lebanese officials and UN monitors documenting far more violations attributed to Israel than to Hezbollah, which has largely refrained from retaliating militarily. Hezbollah has strongly rejected the negotiations in Rome, arguing that being asked to disarm while Israeli strikes continue amounts to a one-sided concession, and has threatened that forcing its disarmament or allowing Israel to strengthen its hold on southern Lebanon could lead to a civil war.
Lebanon endured a disastrous civil war between 1975 and 1990, which was resolved largely under the Ta’if Agreement, reached with Saudi mediation. The war saw widespread and horrific human rights violations, including indiscriminate and summary killings and executions of civilians. Lebanese politics today remains heavily fragmented by religious sects, and another war would certainly result in renewed mass human rights violations, potentially including genocide.
Hezbollah’s threats come at a time when fears of renewed civil war in Lebanon are worryingly high and when the Hezbollah party has lost significant power over the government with the appointment of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. This is not the first time Hezbollah has made such threats, as it has consistently done so in response to challenges to its hold on power. It has shown willingness to follow through with such threats, as in 2008 when Hezbollah and the March 8th coalition rebelled against the ruling March 14 coalition and quickly seized West Beirut.
Since the political process in Lebanon is so heavily polarized around sectarian issues, with so little room for compromise that the country has frequently undergone periods without a head of state, Genocide Watch recognizes that Lebanon has reached Stage 6: Polarization. Additionally, while Hezbollah claims that its weapons are meant to resist Israel, in line with the Ta’if Agreement, its extensive arsenal and non-existent governmental oversight could cause an outbreak of domestic violence against the group’s political opponents. As a result, Genocide Watch recognizes that Lebanon has reached Stage 7: Preparation.
Genocide Watch recommends:
A negotiated settlement between Hezbollah and Beirut for the surrender of the former’s weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in accordance with established agreements including United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) 1559 and 1701.
A combined effort between Lebanon and Israel for the resumption of the LAF’s control over all areas of Lebanon south of the Litani River, in line with the same agreements as listed above.
Amendment of the National Pact and Ta’if Agreement to reduce the sectarian forces on the Lebanese political process.
Report:
