OCHA Warns Baidoa Violence Deepens Humanitarian Crisis
By: Facility for Talo and Leadership
October 11, 2026
MOGADISHU — The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has expressed deep concern over the escalating conflict in Baidoa, warning that repeated violence is worsening an already severe humanitarian crisis for civilians in the South West State capital.
In a statement issued on 9 October 2026, George Conway, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia, said the violence was taking a heavy toll on communities already struggling with recurrent shocks and prolonged displacement. He singled out internally displaced persons, women, children, older persons and people with disabilities as facing disproportionate risks.
“Repeated outbreaks of violence are compounding the suffering of vulnerable families, forcing people to flee their homes and further undermining their access to safety, essential services and humanitarian assistance,” Conway said.
A Cycle of Displacement
The latest clashes, which began on 28 September and continued through early October, marked the second major outbreak of violence in Baidoa in less than two weeks. According to UNHCR monitoring, approximately 934 households, comprising an estimated 5,604 individuals, fled their homes and displacement sites in the Wadajir and Berdale neighbourhoods, with others fleeing to Diinsoor, Qansaxdhere, Burhakaba, Hudur and Wajid.
Women and children accounted for approximately 81 percent of those displaced. Of the 699 displaced children, 319 were enrolled in school before the clashes and experienced interruptions to their education, while 380 were already out of school.
The violence also caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure. Bay Regional Hospital and Bayhaw Hospital reportedly recorded 11 deaths and 86 injuries, including eight deaths caused by stray bullets near RP Hotel. Southwest University, two mosques, and three primary and secondary schools reportedly sustained significant damage. As detailed in FTL Somalia’s coverage of the Baidoa clashes, the security mobilization that followed saw South West State authorities place their forces on high alert and deploy troops outside the city to prevent further fighting from spilling into residential areas.
Health facilities have not been spared. Médecins Sans Frontières reported that a health facility was severely damaged, an ambulance was looted, and a healthcare worker was killed. UNICEF expressed deep concern that children had been killed and injured in the violence.
Famine Risk in Baidoa
The renewed fighting comes at a time when Baidoa is already facing some of the most severe food-security conditions in Somalia. As reported in FTL Somalia’s coverage of the UN’s famine warning, the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment projects that about 26,000 internally displaced people in Baidoa could face catastrophic levels of hunger between October and December 2026. Under a worst-case scenario involving severe flooding, displacement and reduced humanitarian assistance, those communities face a risk of famine.
Across Somalia, approximately 5.4 million people are projected to face crisis levels of hunger or worse during the final three months of 2026, including nearly 1.5 million at emergency levels. About 1.92 million children under five are expected to require treatment for acute malnutrition between July 2026 and June 2027, including 433,000 children with severe acute malnutrition. As detailed in FTL Somalia’s coverage of the WFP funding crisis, the World Food Programme has warned that it has only a tenth of the resources it had in 2022, when it helped avert famine in Somalia.
Baidoa has long been one of Somalia’s largest centres for internally displaced people, many of whom have fled conflict and repeated droughts elsewhere in southern Somalia. The city hosts hundreds of thousands of displaced people, and one in four children at displacement sites are severely malnourished.
Compounding Threats: El Niño and Funding Shortfalls
The humanitarian situation could worsen further during the October-to-December Deyr rainy season. As reported in FTL Somalia’s coverage of SoDMA’s El Niño warning, the Somali Disaster Management Agency has identified 29 districts across 14 regions for heightened preparedness, including Baidoa. The agency has urged communities in vulnerable areas to clear drainage channels and prepare for possible displacement.
The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could bring above-normal rainfall to large parts of central and southern Somalia, with some areas facing as much as a 90 percent probability of wetter-than-normal conditions. According to SoDMA, 2.5 to 3.5 million people could be exposed to flooding, with 1 million likely to be displaced. As detailed in FTL Somalia’s coverage of the national preparedness plan, the government has approved a National El Niño Preparedness Plan, but the gap between planning and implementation remains wide.
Humanitarian funding shortfalls are already severely constraining the response. As reported in FTL Somalia’s coverage of SoDMA-UN coordination, the World Food Programme, which previously reached more than 4 million people monthly, can currently support just over 670,000. The Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for 2026 is only 31 percent funded.
“In 2022, when Somalia was experiencing its longest drought in 40 years, timely and generous funding helped scale up assistance to avert famine,” said Hameed Nuru, WFP Country Director in Somalia. “Today, severe funding shortfalls mean we are only reaching a fraction of those in need, forcing us to make painful choices about who receives assistance and who does not.”
Calls for Protection of Civilians
Conway called on all parties to immediately de-escalate tensions, exercise maximum restraint and take all necessary measures to prevent further violence and protect civilians from harm. He emphasised that hospitals, health facilities, schools and other civilian infrastructure must be respected and protected at all times.
“Attacks on medical facilities are prohibited under international humanitarian law,” he said. “It is equally critical that humanitarian organizations can operate safely and effectively to reach people in need.”
OCHA also called for safe, rapid and unimpeded humanitarian access throughout Baidoa, and for affected and displaced communities to be able to access life-saving assistance without discrimination or obstruction.
Critical Note
The OCHA warning is not a new alarm; it is the latest in a series of increasingly urgent appeals that have gone unheeded. Baidoa has now experienced repeated outbreaks of violence since August 2026, each one displacing thousands, damaging infrastructure, and deepening the vulnerability of communities that have already endured years of drought, conflict and displacement.
The famine risk facing 26,000 displaced people in Baidoa is not a distant possibility. It is a projection based on current data, and it exists alongside a humanitarian response that is being scaled back due to funding shortfalls. The WFP’s ability to reach only 670,000 people compared with 4 million in previous crises is a stark measure of how much the system has been stretched.
The convergence of conflict, climate shock and funding cuts is creating the conditions for catastrophe. The El Niño floods forecast for October to December could cut off roads, destroy crops and livestock, and trigger new waves of displacement precisely when humanitarian access is most needed. If the fighting continues and funding does not materialise, Baidoa’s displaced population could face a famine that the international community has been warned about for months.
The parties to the conflict bear primary responsibility for the violence, but the international community also bears responsibility for the funding shortfalls that have left humanitarian agencies unable to respond at scale. Warnings without action are insufficient. The window for anticipatory action is closing.
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