(c) 2018 USC Institute of Armenian Studies

While the eyes of the world are on Myanmar's northern Rakhine and Cox's Bazaar, Bangladesh, more than 60,000 Rohingya children remain nearly forgotten, trapped in appalling camps in central Rakhine where the shelters teeter on stilts above garbage and excrement, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) reported Tuesday. “Partners have identified about 20 children separated from their families during the violence but estimate the total number to be at least 100 – most of whom are in parts of northern Rakhine state that they still cannot access,” Marixie Mercado, UNICEF spokesperson told journalists in Geneva today during a briefing on her visit to Myanmar from 6 December 2017 through 3 January. She painted a harrowing picture of the situation in Rakhine, noting that prior to 25 August, when the most recent outbreak of violence occurred, UNICEF had been treating 4,800 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition; these children are no longer receiving this life-saving treatment. “All 12 of the outpatient therapeutic treatment centres run by our partners are closed because they were either looted, destroyed or staff can't access them,” she underscored. Ms. Mercado called the inability of UN agencies to access vulnerable Rohingya children who remain in northern Myanmar “troubling,” saying that while “the eyes of the world” are focused on the 655,000 refugees who have fled across the border into Bangladesh, 60,000 Rohingya children remain “almost forgotten,” trapped in squalid camps in central Rakhine. “The Rohingya children who do remain in rural areas are almost totally isolated. We hear of high levels of toxic fear in children from both Rohingya and Rakhine communities,” she said. She stressed that UNICEF stood ready to work with the Myanmar Government and Rakhine state authorities to provide humanitarian relief to all children – regardless of ethnicity, religion, or status – but needed unlimited access. The spokesperson described two of the worst camps that she visited, in Pauktaw Township – reachable only by a four-to-five-hour boat ride. “The first thing you notice when you reach the camps is the stomach-churning stench. Parts of the camps are literally cesspools. Shelters teeter on stilts above garbage and excrement,” she recounted. “Children walk barefoot through the muck. One camp manager reported four deaths among children ages 3-10 within the first 18 days of December.” Ms. Mercado also pointed to “an acute level of fear between the Rakhine and Rohingya communities,” recalling a story that parents in one Rohingya village said they hadn't had their children vaccinated against Japanese Encephalitis because the government vaccinators were accompanied by security officers – while Government workers said they dared not go to Rohingya communities without security. “Rohingya children need a political solution to the issue of legal identity and citizenship. In the interim they need to be recognized first and foremost as children, she said, stressing that the Convention on the Rights of the Child guarantees rights to health, education and opportunities to learn and grow to all children, irrespective of their ethnicity or status or the circumstances in which they find themselves. Ms. Mercado said that the Annan Commission [a report led by the former UN Secretary-General on the situation in Rakhine state]has provided a roadmap for a durable political solution so all children's rights can be protected in a sustainable, open and fair manner in the longer term. “UNICEF stands ready to support this crucial work. And we call on the global community, especially regional organizations and countries, to leverage their influence so children have better lives today and a future they can look forward to,” she said. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=58397#.Wl0aP6inGM- (c) 2018 UN News Centre

“I spent 6 December through 3 January in Myanmar, almost half of that time in Rakhine State. I traveled to the northern part of the state – where the violence broke out last August, driving 655,000 people, the vast majority of them Rohingya, across the border into Bangladesh. I also went to central Rakhine, where over 120,000 Rohingya have been stranded in squalid camps since 2012, and about 200,000 more live in villages where their freedom of movement and access to basic services are also increasingly restricted. “UNICEF and our partners still don’t know what the true picture is of the children who remain in northern Rakhine because we don’t have enough access. What we do know is deeply troubling. Prior to 25 August, we were treating 4,800 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition; these children are no longer receiving this life-saving treatment. All 12 of the outpatient therapeutic treatment centres run by our partners are closed because they were either looted, destroyed or staff can’t access them. None of the five primary health care centres that we were supporting are functioning and there is nowhere near enough clean water or food aid being distributed. Partners have identified about 20 children separated from their families during the violence but estimate the total number to be at least 100, most of whom are in parts of northern Rakhine State that they still cannot access. "Maungdow town clearly bears the scars of the recent violence – large areas have been razed and flattened by bulldozers, most stores are shuttered, few people are on the streets, very few women and even fewer children. Our best estimates indicate that only about 60,000 Rohingya remain in Maungdaw, out of a pre-August 25 population of about 440,000. The Rohingya children who do remain in rural areas are almost totally isolated. We hear of high levels of toxic fear in children from both Rohingya and Rakhine communities. “UNICEF stands ready to work with the Government of Myanmar and with the State Government of Rakhine to reach out to all children, irrespective of their ethnicity, religion, status or circumstance, to bring them the protection and assistance they need. For this, we urgently need regular and unlimited access across Rakhine State. “While the eyes of the world are on the situation in northern Rakhine and in Cox’s Bazaar, over 60,000 Rohingya children remain almost forgotten, trapped in 23 camps in central Rakhine they were driven into by violence in 2012. Pre-existing restrictions on movement of people into and out of the camps were tightened first after the October 2016 outbreak of violence and again after August 2017, making it even harder for humanitarian workers to deliver aid to children, and making already poor conditions in the camps even worse. “The worst camps are in appalling condition. Nget Chaung 1 and 2 in Pauktaw Township are only reachable by boat, a four-to-five-hour ride on the local boats used to deliver supplies. The camps are below sea level, with almost no tree cover. The first thing you notice when you reach the camps is the stomach-churning stench. Parts of the camps are literally cesspools. Shelters teeter on stilts above garbage and excrement. In one camp, the pond where people draw water from is separated by a low mud wall from the sewage. You can easily see how a little bit of rainfall would wash that filth over into the pond. Children walk barefoot through the muck. One camp manager reported four deaths among children ages 3-10 within the first 18 days of December. His only ask was for proper pathways so they wouldn’t have to walk through their own waste. “The restrictions also mean it is extremely difficult for Rohingya to leave their camps for medical treatment. Permission to travel to seek medical assistance is only granted where there is a justification certified by a doctor. Checkpoints and curfews mean delays. The travel authorization costs money, which most people in the camps can’t afford. Relatives are often not permitted to accompany the patient. Once they are at a hospital, Rohingya are confined to a restricted area and not allowed outside contact. As a result, people are turning to traditional healers, untrained physicians or self-medicating. One UNICEF-supported caseworker told me that his daughter had committed suicide because she was unable to bear a pain in her abdomen that existing camp health services were unable to treat. Basic living conditions and access to lifesaving services need to be improved urgently. “There’s an acute level of fear between the Rakhine and Rohingya communities. I was told by parents in one Rohingya village that they hadn’t had their children vaccinated against Japanese Encephalitis because the government vaccinators were accompanied by security officers – and I was told by government workers that they dared not go to Rohingya communities without security. “The movement restrictions are shrinking horizons for children in the camps – nowhere more so than in terms of education. Most of the learning takes place in poorly-resourced temporary learning classrooms, with determined volunteer teachers who have little formal training. There are nowhere near enough classrooms to accommodate students and there is only one high school in the capital, Sittwe, where most camps are located, that caters to Rohingya students between 10th and 12th grades. “Before, the more fortunate students from other camps would come to Sittwe for high school. This year however, one teacher told me that because of the movement restrictions, no student would make it out of the more remote camps. I met a 17-year-old high school graduate in a Sittwe camp whose only chance of going to university is through distance learning – with an institution that is less than a dozen kilometers from where he lives. No Muslim has been able to attend university in Rakhine state since 2012. “What’s the point of learning?” one mother asked me. “Rohingya children desperately need education if they are to have any kind of prospects for a better future. Temporary solutions need to be improved immediately and more durable arrangements providing children with access to formal education, provided by properly trained teachers and recognized by the education system, must be set in place quickly. Otherwise this generation’s future prospects will be permanently damaged. “The Government of Myanmar has established a ministerial committee tasked with implementing the recommendations of the final report of the Rakhine Advisory Commission chaired by Kofi Annan, which include addressing the stateless status of the Rohingya population and meeting priority needs. “Rohingya children need a political solution to the issue of legal identity and citizenship. In the interim they need to be recognized first and foremost as children. The Convention on the Rights of the Child guarantees rights to health, education and opportunities to learn and grow to all children, irrespective of their ethnicity or status or the circumstances in which they find themselves. Ways and means must be found to deliver these rights to Rohingya children in Rakhine State today. “Ethnic Rakhine children have also been deeply affected by years of communal violence and division. We have long worked to promote more equitable and inclusive access for all children across Rakhine and Myanmnar, and we stand by our principle that a child is a child and every child in need deserves help. “The Annan Commission has provided a roadmap for a durable political solution so all children’s rights can be protected in a sustainable, open and fair manner in the longer term. UNICEF stands ready to support this crucial work. And we call on the global community, especially regional organizations and countries, to leverage their influence so children have better lives today and a future they can look forward to. https://www.unicef.org/media/media_102378.html (c) 2018 UNICEF

How much is a child worth? Before you say "priceless" without a second thought, ask yourself again — only this time imagine you are starving and you haven't eaten in weeks. You are sick from drinking the only contaminated water off the ground that you could find. You are drenched from sleeping under trees and tarps. Your spouse is missing and possibly dead. You are having flashbacks to the brutal violence that made you flee your home and everything you ever knew, and walk for 10 days straight just to find help. And you have three children in your arms, each looking to you through teary, traumatized eyes, in desperate need of safety, protection and answers. In the case of the Rohingya — Muslim refugees who have been forced to leave their lives and livelihoods behind in Myanmar after being caught in what some have called "a textbook case of ethnic cleansing" — that desperation is leading to danger for many children. In these circumstances, parents with little source of income may become willing to take on whatever opportunities they are promised, even those that are dangerous and that involve their children. They seek safety — and a means of survival — in Bangladesh. Ask yourself again: how much would you pay for your child to have a way out? This is the excruciating dilemma faced by the Rohingya. I have been witness to this crisis for the past three months. As a Canadian, this is far from the life I have ever known. Since August 2017, more than 655,000 Rohingya refugees have sought refuge in Bangladesh, and more than half of them children. Humanitarian agencies like UNICEF have been rushing to meet the immediate needs — food, shelter, safe water — but the demand is far outpacing the response. This is the fastest growing humanitarian emergency in the world today. In the chaos of the crisis and the shadows of the problems we see are those we don't; the invisible plight of children who are at risk of being trafficked in order to make ends meet. The world's collective failure to broker peace is costing Rohingya children their childhoods, their futures and in some cases, their lives. But even once peace comes, this exploitation is setting them down a dangerous path — one that may not be reversible. A recent report by the International Organization for Migration confirms what we on the front lines have seen since the start of the crisis. Living in overcrowded and squalid conditions with little chance of finding work, Rohingya refugees are doing whatever they can to survive. Unfortunately that can mean falling prey to human traffickers along the way. The report indicates that young girls, lured by the promise of a good marriage, ended up being forced into prostitution. Parents, who believed they're sending their children off to a successful job are being misled. This is a human tragedy but one that we can put an end to. We can stop child trafficking by ensuring families have the means they need to support their children. By ensuring their basic needs are met, and that their children have access to education, health services and community child protection systems. Families won't continue to expose themselves or their children to danger if they don't see the immediate need. Canada has already taken great measures to support these vulnerable children. In 2017, Canada committed more than $37.5 million in humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh and Myanmar. This included $12.5 million for the Myanmar Crisis Relief Fund, which matched individual donations made between Aug. 25 and Nov. 28, 2017. Without sufficient funding and greater access and resources to ensure protection for every Rohingya child at risk, children will always have a price tag and remain exposed to exploitation and trafficking. Only a long term solution will put an end to this gruesome violence — one that supports the safe, voluntary and dignified return of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar. Because the answer to the question of how much a child is worth should be "priceless." Every time. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/unicef-canada/inaction-has-put-a-price-on-the-lives-of-rohingya-children_a_23327285/ (c) 2018 The Huffington Post

For several years I have chronicled the slow demise of the Sudanese economy, a task necessary because there is no international reporting of significance and the IMF has essentially abandoned all oversight responsibility. Indeed, no international actor has been more irresponsible than the IMF in failing to warn about Sudan’s economic collapse. Here the most telling revelation is a statement by IMF Mission Chief for Sudan, Edward Gemayel: Mr. Edward Gemayel, the IMF’s Mission Chief for Sudan noted that “Sudan has a long track record of implementing sustainable economic policies.” (IMF press release | http://www.4-traders.com/news/IMF-International-Monetary-Fund-Press-Release-Sudan-Meeting-of-the-Technical-Working-Group-on-E–17345158/ It is impossible to imagine a more foolishly destructive assessment of an economy whose present collapse has become increasingly inevitable—and was well on its way before Gemayel’s preposterous statement. The present, rapidly accelerating economic and political crisis has been clear to those who would only look, although this viewership has been perversely small, and includes primarily Sudanese economists, mainly in the diaspora and whose views are reported almost exclusively by Radio Dabanga and Sudan Tribune. For my own assessments going back to 2014 (and earlier) see especially: “Watching the Bubble Burst: Political Implications of Sudan’s Economic Implosion,” Enough Project Forum publication, 17 September 2014 | http://www.enoughproject.org/reports/enough-forum-watching-bubble-burst • “Kleptocracy in Khartoum: Self-enrichment by the National Islamic Front/National Congress Party,” December 2015 | https://enoughproject.org/files/EnoughForum_KleptocracyInKhartoum_Reeves_Dec2015.pdf Economic collapse is accelerating rapidly, with the catastrophic 2018 national budget the catalyst, having already produced inflation in prices of some critical consumer commodities by 300%. Protests are now rippling across Sudan, and the first casualty in a protest demonstration has now been reported; there have also been many injuries, most from the grossly disproportionate and excessive use of teargas, including security forces hurling tear-gas grenades in residences where children are present. Half of Sudan’s 18 states have now been put under “stage of emergency” orders. The regime is in no position to rescue the economy or to reverse the surging inflation—coming on top of what was already been for 2017 a year-over-year inflation rate in excess of 50%. The Central Bank of Sudan is estimated to have only enough exchange currency (Forex) for a month and a half of imports—including wheat, which is now imported rather than grown domestically, this despite the abundant tracts of fertile land in Sudan. Radio Dabanga reported on January 7, 2018 that Sudan “imported more than two million tons of wheat at a cost on $1.5 billion in 2015,” the last year for which there are records available. The immensely burdensome increase in the costs of flour, and thus bread, has produced acute shortages and long lines—and fantastic prices increases. As I’ve said, popular anger can be traced readily in the days following the announcement of the 2018 budget that has served as catalyst for explosive anger. Will popular anger be enough to overcome fear of the willingness of the regime to use methods as brutal as issuing “shoot to kill” orders? That question is being answered on a daily basis; here a survey of dispatches going back to December 21, 2017—the time at which the budget was announced: [1] Intensifying Censorship is Key Part of Khartoum Regime’s Response to Popular Uprising Eric Reeves | January 9, 2018 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2bx As protests increase throughout Sudan, news reporting of popular outrage over catastrophic price hikes for basic commodities also increases; the National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime is determined to continue with its present policy of ever-greater censorship. “Red lines” are becoming more restrictive, more crushing of news reporting: • More newspapers seized for covering Sudan price protests | Radio Dabanga, January 9, 2018 | KHARTOUM More newspapers have also been confiscated for neglecting directives of the security apparatus to the press not to report on the demonstrations against Sudan’s price hikes. Print-runs of El Jareeda and El Baath newspapers were seized from the printing press, Mohamed Widaa, editor-in-chief of Baath and also spokesman for the political Arab Baath party, told Radio Dabanga. This brings the total number of seized newspapers that went against the security service’s directives and covered the street protests in the past two days to eight. “The reason was that Baath dealt with the news of the demonstrations and the surge of prices,” Widaa said. “But there is no respected newspaper to be issued without this news.” He stressed their commitment to moral principles and respect for the reader the Sudanese people. “This makes it imperative for us to publish the news, even if we see that it would make [the security service] want to confiscate the newspaper.” Widaa added that the newspaper will not stop nor falsify the facts and publish them. “The security apparatus is acting above the law. The government is the one that is making the current news but wants to prevent publication about it.” [This is the crucial point: the very regime policies that have led to the protests are now the focus of press censorship and repression in the streets—ER] Objective reporting Majid El Goni, the editor-in-chief of the independent daily El Jareeda, said that the security apparatus did not provide an explanation when officers confiscated the print-runs from the printing press on Monday. “The newspaper’s dealing with the protests rejecting the new budget could be the reason for the confiscation.” In the past days El Jareeda had also dealt with protests in El Gezira, Darfur and Sennar states, however, “not only did the leaders of the opposition talk about the budget, but also the leaders of the National Congress Party did. “Every day the red lines set by the security service for the Sudanese press are gaining territory, preventing any publication on a news subject.” [And this is the other crucial point: as demonstrations accelerate, so censorship and security repression in the streets will only become more intense—something has to give. So far the regime gives no signs of backing away from its catastrophic 2018 budget, in part because it simply can’t: the economy has been too fully destroyed and there are no means of revival at hand—ER] On Sunday morning, officers of the NISS halted the distribution of six newspapers, including Akhbar El Watan, El Midan, El Sayha, El Mustagilla, El Garar, and El Tayyar. [2] First person killed in demonstrations sweeping Sudan, protesting outrageous price hikes in basic food commodities Eric Reeves | January 8, 2018 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2bv The first person—a high school student—has been killed in the demonstrations that are now sweeping across Sudan, protesting outrageous price hikes in basic food commodities. Others injured have been injured, including by the indiscriminate use of large volumes of tear gas. As Radio Dabanga and Sudan Tribune report, new parts of the country are protesting the inevitable results of catastrophic economic policies, and decades of kleptocracy, by an utterly ruthless and self-enriching regime: • Darfuri student killed in Sudan protests against price hikes | Radio Dabanga | January 8, 2018 | EL GENEINA / NYALA / ED DAMAZIN / KHARTOUM On Sunday, the third day of demonstrations against the 300%price increases that hit the country last week, a student was killed in the West Darfur capital of El Geneina. Other parts of the country witnessed protests as well. When demonstrators in El Geneina set fire to the local headquarters of the ruling National Congress Party in the city, government forces opened fire on the crowd. Secondary school student El Zubeir Ibrahim Sikiran was killed instantly. Eight others were wounded. Dozens were detained… Sudan imports many food items and most of the medicines needed. In 2015, Sudan imported more than two million tons of wheat at a cost of $1.5 billion. [This vast expenditure on food that should be grown in Sudan is the ultimate cause of the Forex shortage—ER] The recurrent flour crises during the past few years have been attributed to the scarcity of foreign currency. In a bid to fight the steadily increasing hard currency rate at the black market, the government in end December decided to raise the customs rate of the Dollar from SDG 6.7 to SDG 18. After this measure came into effect on Tuesday, the prices of the main consumer goods doubled or even tripled. [Prices appear poised to rise further, as inflation begins to feed on itself in a highly inflationary environment—ER] Rapid Support Forces On Sunday morning, secondary school students demonstrated also in Nyala, capital of South Darfur. They chanted slogans against the doubling of the bread price. Others blocked the main three streets in the city with burning tyres for several hours. The South Darfur authorities deployed large numbers of militiamen belonging to the Rapid Support Forces in the centre of the capital to support the state police. In Ed Damazin, people took to the streets on Saturday morning. The security forces used tear gas and excessive force to break up the demonstrations that moved from various neighbourhoods of the Blue Nile State capital to the city market. A student reported to this station that two houses in El Zuhour district burned down during the violence. Dozens of demonstrators, among them a number of students of the Blue Nile University, were held, and have been taken to an unknown destination. On Friday and Saturday, Khartoum, Atbara, and Sennar witnessed small protests in a number of neighbourhoods as well. A demonstration of students of the University of Khartoum on Sunday afternoon was immediately halted by police forces who closed the nearby streets, and used tear gas to disperse the protesters. Students told this station that many of them suffered from breathing problems because of the excessive use of tear gas. An unknown number of students were wounded. Dozens were detained. ‘Sabotage’ On Sunday, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Interior Affairs, Babikir Digna, told the press in Khartoum that his Ministry “will not hesitate to crack down on any subversive demonstration against the price hikes.” “We will suppress any sabotage attempts,” he stressed… • Student killed in protests over price rising in West Darfur | Sudan Tribune |January 7, 2018 (EL-GENEINA) A student was killed and others wounded Sunday in a wave of mass protests that swept through West Darfur State capital, El-Geneina over commodity price hikes. An official at West Darfur government told Sudan Tribune under the condition of anonymity that hundreds of students took to the streets of El-Geneina… “The police and the Rapid Support Forces intervened to disperse the demonstration. There were casualties among the protesters. A high school student named Al-Zubayr Ibrahim Sekeran was killed and the authorities would investigate the incident.” In the same context, the minister of education in West Darfur State Bashir Adam Idris issued a decision to suspend primary and high schools study for one week. [3] Protests Continue in Sudan Amidst Catastrophic Inflation for Basic Commodities Eric Reeves | January 7, 2018 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2bt Protests continue in Sudan and seemed destined to grow rapidly; only the most severe repressive measures can stop demonstrations against catastrophic inflation let loose by 2018 budget. Calls for demonstrations are coming from an increasing number of political quarters. Notably, the budget was proposed by the regime, but accepted by the slavish Parliament: it has no real power on issues of importance. Injuries have already been reported, including to children. • Sudan: Sporadic protests against 300% price increases | Radio Dabanga | January 7, 2018 | KHARTOUM / EL GEZIRA / KASSALA On Friday, Khartoum, El Gezira, and Kassala witnessed spontaneous protests against the new increases in the prices of basic commodities and the fuel and electricity tariffs.Opposition parties are calling for mass demonstrations. Flour and fuel shortages continue in various states. As the production of food in Sudan is poor, the country has to import many food items, wheat, and also medicines from abroad. In 2015, Sudan imported more than two million tons of wheat at a cost of $1.5 billion. The recurrent flour crises during the past few years have been attributed to the scarcity of foreign currency… The budget was approved by the Sudanese Parliament on 31 December. After the increase of the customs price came into effect on Tuesday, the prices of the main consumer goods doubled or even tripled. [The fact that this outrageously unfair and misguided budget was approved by the Parliament makes clear that there is no independent check on the dictates of the NIF/NCP regime—Parliament is a sham on real issues—ER] “We don’t know what to do any more,” a housewife told Radio Dabanga from Khartoum North. “The increases concern everything, fuel, bread, cooking oil, medicines, you name it. The price of a quarter of a kg of lentils, that has become important staple food, rose from 5 to 9 Pounds, a plate of 24 eggs from 30 to 60 Pound, and a kg of chicken from 33 to 45 Pound.” Amidst ongoing flour shortages, prices of this basic commodity tripled on Thursday. The price of a 50 kg sack of flour went up from SDG 165 ($23.40*) to SDG 550 ($78) in several states of the country, an increase by 333 per cent. Bakeries closed their doors, or sold one piece of bread for one Sudanese Pound instead of two. [These wild surges in prices, on top of massive previous inflation, are crushing the purchasing power of most Sudanese—and the future for prices looks even more grim—ER] Protests In the Khartoum districts of Burri, El Jereif, and Jabra, people took to the streets in protest against the soaring prices. Dozens of protesters blocked the main streets with burning tyres, listeners reported. In El Hilla El Jedida, El Mazad, El Dibagha, El Asheer, and Banat in El Gezira, south of Khartoum, large numbers of people participated in demonstrations. Some of them set fire to tyres to close the roads. Members of the security apparatus, the police and the paramilitary Central Reserve Police used tear gas and batons to disperse the demonstrators. [NB] The government forces also threw tear gas canisters inside houses, which caused breathing problems to the residents, in particular the children and the elderly. In El Hilla El Jedida, two children had to be taken to the hospital. “They almost could not breathe any more,” their mother told this station. Multiple sources reported that a number of demonstrators sustained injuries. Others were held by security forces and taken to an unknown destination. In eastern Sudan’s Kassala, people as well protested against the shortage of bread and the sky-rocketing prices. Dozens of demonstrators gathered spontaneously in front of the vegetable market in Halfa El Jedida after Friday prayers, and chanted slogans against the government policies. One of the protesters told this station most of the bakeries in Halfa El Jedida kept their doors closed on Friday for the lack of flour. The price of a 50 kg sack of flour rose to nearly SDG 500. “The soaring bread prices have become a great burden on us, especially because most of the people are surviving on low incomes already.” Complaints People in northern Sudan as well complained about the price hikes to Radio Dabanga. “Apart from rise of the price of a tiny piece of bread from half a Pound to one Pound, the price of a kilo of meat has risen from SDG 70 ($10*) to SDG 140,” a listener in Dongola complained… A resident of eastern Sudan’s El Gedaref reported an acute bread crisis in the town. He complained that “The new bread price represents a new challenge as our daily wages and salaries have not increased.” ‘Stability’ According to the official Sudanese Press Agency, President Omar Al Bashir received his Assistant, Gen. Abdelrahman El Mahdi, on Thursday and directed him to take action to halt the price hikes and improve the living conditions of the people. Al Bashir said that the outcomes of the National Dialogue are to be fully implemented, in order to realise sustained security and stability in the country. [This is pure propaganda by al-Bashir: there never was a “National Dialogue,” and the 2018 budget only makes the people of Sudan less secure, and ensures that instability will only grow as prices continue to rise—ER] A new alliance of members of the federal Parliament plans to start a protest action against the approval of the new budget. The budget has been criticised as well by Sudanese financial experts and opposition parties for again allocating a high percentage to the army, security service, and paramilitary forces. Similar to previous years, the budget relies on direct and indirect taxes to cover its deficit. The budget includes plans to reduce the inflation rate from 34 per cent to 19 per cent. But according to a Sudanese economist, the inflation rate in the country “exceeds 50 per cent” in reality. [This estimate of the inflation rate is certainly accurate, as opposed to statements from the corrupt Central Bureau of Statistics [inflation is currently “only” 34%], which is simply a propaganda extension of the regime, with no independence—ER] Call for more demonstrations Opposition parties urged the Sudanese people to take to the streets in peaceful demonstrations against Khartoum’s economic policies. “By enforcing the recent price increases, the regime has publicly declared its defiance of the will of the people”, the Sudanese Congress Party said in a press statement on Friday. The activist opposition party called on “the political parties, civil society organisations, youth organisations, students and all the Sudanese to rise up and face the challenge of change by peaceful means, through a popular revolution whose main demand is the ousting of the [current] Salvation regime.” [The NCP/NIF regime will not tolerate demonstrations, peaceful or otherwise: once people see how many feel as they do about the hardships the regime is imposing, solidarity will grow. Will violence by the police, security forces, and perhaps even the military succeed in crushing the demonstrations? We will learn much in the days and weeks ahead. Injuries, including to children, have already been reported. There will be blood…ER] The National Umma Party said in a statement on Friday as well that the recent price increases have crossed a red line. The party called on “the Sudanese people and all forces interested in change to oppose the budget by all peaceful means in order to halt the regime’s absurd measures, its disregard for the people, its failure, corruption, and tyranny.” The Communist Party of Sudan warned for “a growing sense of injustice and marginalisation in the country,” and criticised the allocation of most of the resources to “the centre and the security establishment.” The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North faction headed by Malik Agar, called on all Sudanese to resist the new “impoverishment budget” by forming “ the widest front possible.” Ali Mahmoud Hassanein, the head of Sudan’s National Front, called for “a peaceful and decisive uprising to bring down the regime as it cannot longer provide a basic necessity like bread.” [4] Sudan’s Economic Crisis Reaches the Tipping Point Eric Reeves | January 6, 2018 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2bo These sudden, massive increases in the price of flour—and thus of bread—will inevitably lead to additional civil society outrage and unrest in Sudan; the protests of yesterday are only the first of what will likely exceed those of September 2013, during which more than 200 people were killed after the NIF/NCP regime ordered “shoot to kill orders,” a fact confirmed by Amnesty International and the African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies. An extremely violent response by regime to current protests against the regime’s catastrophic economic policies—crystallized in the new 2018 budget—is inevitable. When the bloody tyranny that has ruled Sudan ruthlessly since its military coup of June 1989 finally goes, the means will be civil society actions, including demonstrations of the sort reported today by Sudan Tribune. The failure of the international community to warn the regime off its brutally repressive measures constitutes passive acceptance, a de facto “green light” to what we will see in the coming days and weeks. • Scattered protests erupt in Sudan over economic woes | Sudan Tribune | January 5, 2018 (KHARTOUM) – Sporadic protests have erupted on Friday in Khartoum and the Gazira State in central Sudan against the recent government decision to increase the bread price. On Friday, bakeries raised the price of a loaf of bread from 50 cents to 1 Sudanese pound following a government decision to increase the price of flour sack from 167 pounds to 450 pounds. The government decision was part of tough economic measures contained in the 2018 budget which also saw the lifting of electricity subsidies as well as increasing the U.S. dollar exchange rate to 18.00 pounds from the official rate of 6.7. [Given the new, dramatic, and overnight increases in flour prices—and thus bread prices—civil society outrage will spread quickly throughout Sudan—the potential for an even more massive popular uprising than that of September 2013 is clearly present. These demonstrations are certain to spread—ER] Several neighbourhoods in the Sudanese capital including Al-Sahafa, Al-Kalakla, Al-Giraif and Burri on Friday witnessed limited demonstrations where the protesters burned car tires to block some streets. Also, police on Friday used tear gas and batons cautiously to disperse protesters in the neighbourhoods of Al-Mazad, Shendi Foug, Al-Hilla Al-Jadida and Al-Dibaga in Wad Medani, capital of the Gezira State. There were reports that several protesters have been injured and unknown numbers were captured by the security forces. To quell anti-austerity protests in Khartoum, Sudanese security forces in September 2013 carried out a brutal crackdown on the peaceful demonstration, killing nearly two hundred protesters say human rights groups or 86 people according to government figures. On Thursday, the opposition called on the Sudanese people to take to streets to protests against the unprecedented rise in the cost of living and commodity price. Opposition forces attribute the deteriorating living condition and economic meltdown to corruption, lack of production policies, and lack of economic reform vision following the secession of South Sudan. • Sudan’s bread price through the roof as of today | Radio Dabanga | January 5, 2018 | SUDAN Khartoum has increased the price of flour, and it more than tripled in several states of the country which has been hit by the bread shortage. Bakeries closed their doors or will sell one bread instead of two for the same price, starting today. Bakeries reported that sacks of flour of 50 kilograms went up from 165 ($23.40) a piece to 550 Sudanese pounds ($78), an increase of 333 per cent. The new price increase coincides with the flour crisis that hit large areas of the capital Khartoum and other Sudanese cities, including Wad Madani, Port Sudan and areas of the states River Nile, Kassala, Darfur, Kordofan, and Northern State. Mohamed Awad El Saeed is a member of the bakeries’ union in Khartoum state. Yesterday he confirmed that the bakeries have received flour at the new price. “We have to start selling one bread instead of two for a Pound as of Friday.” On Thursday residents in Omdurman city told Radio Dabanga about the long lines in front of the bakeries throughout the day. “The city has witnessed a scarcity of bread for days and reached its peak on Wednesday evening.” A number of bakeries was closed during that day and evening because of the depletion of the quotas of flour that are allocated to them by the state and flour distributors. People in El Gezira state reported that “the severe bread crisis” entered its fifth day without seeing a solution from the authorities. A resident of Wad Madani told this station: “We have to stand in long queues to get bread, but not more than 20 breads per person.” Also here, a number of bakeries closed their doors because of the lack of flour. “The price of bread sold by street vendors has amounted to one Pound a piece.” Port Sudan bakeries close Most of the bakeries in Port Sudan closed on Thursday because of the price hike.Sources told Radio Dabanga that on Wednesday, bakery owners in Port Sudan refused to receive the flour quotas which came at the new price of SDG 452 ($64) for a sack of flour instead of SDG 178 ($25). Residents of El Duweim, White Nile state, also complained of the general rise of consumer good prices and the scarcity of bread. Reporting closed bakeries Some bakeries in Khartoum, Wad Madani and Atbara placed posters noting that the price of bread would rise because of the increase in flour prices. The Ministry of Finance, Economy and Consumer Affairs of Khartoum called on the popular committees in all state districts and residents to report any bakery that is closed. [This is yet another example of the Khartoum regime not addressing a critical economic issue, but “shooting the messenger” who carries information about catastrophic results of this neglect: the bakeries are the “messenger,” and the closings are dictate by the high prices and shortages of flour, a direct result of regime policies—ER] Medicine prices Meanwhile the Sudanese Communist Party has warned of a health disaster in Sudan because of the rise of medicine prices and the state’s low spending on the health sector in the 2018 budget. The party called upon Sudanese people to object to the government policies “that lead to the further deterioration of the health sector.” A pharmaceutical expert said that the next half-year will see the absence of new medicines in Sudan coupled with an emergence of fake medicines on the market.Khalid Wadelnur also said that there are approximately 400 companies and institutions in the country that sell medicines imported from abroad, instead of pharmaceutical companies which have been unable to import them. Parliament expects an “impending disaster in the pharmaceutical sector” and announced that foreign companies have stopped supplying medical supplies and lifesaving and chronic disease medicines because of the accumulation of debts. [This is also soon to be a source of growing civil society outrage, as members of the regime and its cronies continue to enjoy full access to any and all pharmaceuticals—ER] [5] The Khartoum Regime Declares “States of Emergency” as 2018 Budget Is Released Eric Reeves | December 31, 2017 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2bc The Khartoum regime is now declaring “state of emergency” as a way of preparing the for massive protests that will follow promulgation of the disastrous 2018 budget, with its crushing effects on ordinary Sudanese. Politicians throughout Sudan see clearly the real reasons for regime declaring of “states of emergency”—and they understand that the same measures will likely spread soon to other regions beyond those reported today by Radio Dabanga and Sudan Tribune: • Khartoum imposes State of Emergency in Kassala, North Kordofan | Radio Dabanga | December 31, 2017 | EL OBEID / KASSALA | https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/sudan-state-of-emergency-imposed-in-kassala-north-kordofan The disarmament campaign has been extended to North Kordofan and Kassala. On Saturday, Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir imposed the State of Emergency in these two states. Activists and politicians doubt the reasons for the measure. Politicians and activists in North Kordofan wonder why the State of Emergency has to be imposed for the arms collection. “In reality, Khartoum wants to further restrict our fundamental rights and freedoms under the pretext of collecting weapons,” an activist told Radio Dabanga from the capital of El Obeid. “They just need the State of Emergency to suppress renewed protests against the sky-rocketing prices. Lawyer Osman Saleh also rejected the idea. “The Sudanese Constitution conditions a declaration of a State of Emergency with disasters and epidemics or foreign intervention.” He expects as well that the government will use the State of Emergency “to tighten its suppression on the currently developing public unrest because of the scarcity of bread and fuel and the crazy price rises.” In Kassala, protests were also heard. Mohamed El Hassan Iheimir, Head of the Unified National Unionist Party in Kassala state told this station that the declaration of the State of Emergency “constitutes an attempt to curtail freedoms under the guise of arms collection. “Implementing such a measure aims to cut the way for any possible street protests from against the passage of the 2018 budget, the repeated sharp rise of basic consumer prices, and the escalating fuel and wheat shortages,” he said. “Moreover, the State of Emergency will lead to a complete paralysis of the political life in Kassala.” The party leader stated that the authorities do not need the State of Emergency for its disarmament campaign. “Khartoum has been distributing weapons to its loyal tribes and militias, so they know exactly where and from whom they collect the weapons.” Iheimir also reported that the police has prohibited the Unified National Unionist Party from organising an event celebrating Sudan’s Independence Day [1 January 1956] at a public square in Kassala… “The party met all the required conditions as we have informed the police eight days before the event would take place – although the law provides for only three-day prior notification,” he said. “The prohibition is clearly an attempt to suppress dissenting opinions.” • Sudan’s president declares state of emergency in North Kordofan and Kassala | Sudan Tribune, Khartoum | December 31, 2017 | http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64379 Excerpts: Also, there were reports that the state of emergency will be imposed in some of the central states including the capital, Khartoum not for the purpose of supporting the disarmament campaign but to counter possible protests that could erupt against the tough economic measures in the 2018 budget that was deposited to the parliament last week. It is noteworthy that demonstrations broke out in several Sudanese states in September 2013 following the government’s decision to lift fuel subsidies. Rights groups said that at least 200 people were killed but the government put the death toll at 85. [6] Economic Collapse is Accelerating in Sudan—and so is the potential for explosive civil unrest, and equally massive, violent repression by Khartoum regime Eric Reeves | December 27, 2017 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2b1 The collapse of the Sudanese economy continues to accelerate—yet there is no international reporting on developments that could spark massive civil unrest and equally massive, violent repression by regime. IMF silence is particularly disgraceful. All the warning signs are here, and the explosion could dwarf that of September 2013 when the regiome precipitously lifted subsidies on fuel. • Economist: “Sudan’s real inflation rate tops 50%” | Radio Dabanga | December 27, 2017 | CAIRO / KHARTOUM | https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/economist-sudan-s-real-inflation-rate-tops-50 The Sudanese government’s official increase in the US Dollar price from SDG 6.6 to SDG 18 is as a step towards floating the Sudanese Pound and liberalising the US Dollar price, according to a leading expert on Sudan’s Economy. “The real inflation rate in Sudan now exceeds 50 per cent,” says Prof Hamid Eltigani, head of the Department of Public Policy and Administration at the American University in Cairo. In an interview with Radio Dabanga, Prof Eltigani attributed the Sudanese government’s official Dollar price to controlling the four billion US Dollars in reserves in the banks. “The budget of 2018 as a real disaster,” he said, pointing out that “68 per cent of the revenues depend on taxes and 32 per cent on borrowing; whether from the banking sector or from countries. Oil and gold will exit the budget altogether.” Prof Eltigani doubts the government’s ability to collect taxes covering 68 per cent of the budget and pointed to the steady decrease in the tax base due to the recession, the weakness of purchasing power, the high inflation rates, and the continuous increase in commodity prices. He highlights the absence of development from the budget of 2018 as “the Sudanese government has officially abandoned spending on services, especially education and health, with emphasis on the first item of wages, government spending, and increased spending on security and the army.” Prof Eltigani ridiculed statements by Finance Minister Dr Mohamed Osman El Rikabi that the aim of the budget is to reduce inflation rates from 34.1 percent to 19.5 percent. He said it is impossible to lower the inflation rates while the government is continues to borrow from the banking sector by printing more currency. He questions the official government figures for inflation rates and pointed out that the real inflation rates in Sudan exceed 50 per cent. “The new budget will lead to a continuous increase in the prices of commodities including flour and fuel. The only way out of the current situation is structural changes in the governance and the way the economy is managed. Ibrahim El Sheikh, the former President of Sudanese Congress Party, described the economic situation as “very grim” and considered that [NB] “all the vital indicators indicate that Sudan is about to collapse.” • Most fuel stations closed in Port Sudan, bakeries shut | Radio Dabanga | December 27, 2017 | SUDAN | https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/most-fuel-stations-closed-in-port-sudan-bakeries-shut The ongoing severe fuel and cooking gas shortage in Port Sudan resulted in most fuel stations in Port Sudan shutting down on Tuesday. Gas-fired bakeries have also stopped operating. Journalist Osman Hashim told Radio Dabanga that long queues of vehicles wait at the fuel stations all day long. Gas-fired bakeries have also stopped working because of the cooking gas crisis. According to Hashim, the station agents attributed the crisis to the delay in the discharge of the fuel tankers in Port Sudan. West Darfur The residents of three villages in Jebel Moon in West Darfur have complained of a severe drinking water crisis. One of the residents told Radio Dabanga that the villages of Manjoura, Jamal Arseif and Fareeda have no water engines or hand pumps. He said they rely on underground wells whose water has dried up prompting them to travel long distances to fetch water from the surrounding areas. He appealed to the authorities to establish water engines and provide hand pumps… Prices surge The Red Sea state in eastern Sudan is witnessing a surge in prices and an unprecedented rise in the prices of basic commodities. A number of farmers from the Northern state have complained of the sudden and large increase in electricity tariffs for agricultural projects amounting to 1,000 per cent. They have expected failure of the winter season of growing wheat, Egyptian beans and a number of cash crops. Some factory owners have threatened to stop working if electricity tariffs are increased. The secretary-general of the union of chambers of industry, Abbas Ali El Sayed, told a news conference that the price of a ton of iron will rise from SDG 15,000 to SDG 20,000 and an iron bar from SDG 100 to SDG 300. Last week, petrol stations in Khartoum witnessed long queues for the third day in a row. On Tuesday and Wednesday, hundreds of people waited in vain for transport at bus stations in Omdurman, Khartoum North, and Khartoum. A government source has attributed the scarcity of fuel to delays in shipments through Port Sudan. NISS officers have warned the Sudanese media by telephone not to report about the scarcity of bread and fuel in the country. [The regime’s response to the economic crisis is to continue with its policy of “shooting the messenger,” rather than addressing the problems. Repression has always been the tool of first resort for the regime–ER] • Sudan: new measures against Forex speculation | Radio Dabanga | December 27 – 2017 KHARTOUM / OMDURMAN | https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/sudan-new-measures-against-forex-speculation On Tuesday the Sudanese Finance Ministry revealed new security and administrative measures to prevent speculation in foreign currency. In a press statement at the Houses of Parliament in Omdurman on Tuesday, the State Minister at the Ministry of Finance Abdelrahman Dirar said that “there will be new security and administrative measures to prevent speculation in foreign currency.” Dirar also declared that “the government will stop buying the US Dollar from the parallel market.” Parallel [black market] price In a press statement of Tuesday, the Director of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS), Hazim Abdelgadir, announced an agreement between the bank and the Ministry of Finance that the Ministry will buy foreign currency, especially the US Dollar from the bank at the parallel market price instead of the official price. He stressed willingness to provide the amounts needed by the Finance Ministry. “The Ministry is used to buying the US Dollar from the Central Bank at the official price which was creating problems.” Forex dealers fear arrest Foreign currency dealers said there is great fear when dealing directly with their customers after the penalties and security measures adopted by the authorities in November, in an attempt to stem the unofficial foreign exchange market. The measures have seen currency dealers being arrested, while others fled abroad. In early December, the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) ordered banks to freeze the assets of dozens of Sudanese people and companies. The State Security Prosecution charged them for trading currencies, against the instructions of the CBoS. In an attempt to boost foreign currency reserves, the CBoS has also instructed all banks in Sudan to hand over remittances by Sudanese expatriates abroad in the same currency as the transfer. Responsibility No international actor has been more irresponsible than the IMF in warning about Sudan’s economic collapse: “Mr. Edward Gemayel, the IMF’s Mission Chief for Sudan noted that ‘Sudan has a long track record of implementing sustainable economic policies.'” | http://www.4-traders.com/news/IMF-International-Monetary-Fund-Press-Release-Sudan-Meeting-of-the-Technical-Working-Group-on-E–17345158/ From Radio Dabanga (December 2017) Prices soar, bakeries shut in Sudan bread, fuel crisis | December 29, 2017 | SUDAN The knock-on effect of the steady rise in the price of the US Dollar on Sudan’s currency market continues to impact on prices of consumer goods on markets in Khartoum and the other states. Bread, fuel, and cooking gas prices have soared due to short supply. Analyst: Sudan’s draft 2018 budget “tragic and catastrophic,” December 28, 2017 | KHARTOUM Sudan’s draft general budget for 2018 represents “as a siege on citizens’ livelihood as a result of rising prices, high inflation rate, increasing cash mass, and demand for goods and commodities for the privileged segment,” says respected Sudanese economist Prof Sidgi Kaballo. Economist: “Sudan’s real inflation rate tops 50%,” December 27, 2017 | CAIRO / KHARTOUM The Sudanese government’s official increase in the US Dollar price from SDG 6.6 to SDG 18 is as a step towards floating the Sudanese Pound and liberalising the US Dollar price, according to a leading expert on Sudan’s Economy. Most fuel stations closed in Port Sudan, bakeries shut,| December 27, 2017 | SUDAN The ongoing severe fuel and cooking gas shortage in Port Sudan resulted in most fuel stations in Port Sudan shutting down on Tuesday. Gas-fired bakeries have also stopped operating. Large spending on army: Economists criticise 2018 budget, December 26, 2017 | KHARTOUM The draft annual budget for 2018 for Sudan allocates a high percentage of revenue to the army, security service and paramilitary forces similarly to in 2017. Just three per cent of the budget is allocated to education. Long queues at Sudan’s bakeries, fuel stations, December 22, 2017 | SUDAN The severe bread and fuel crisis is still being reported from various states in Sudan. Widespread bread shortages, Sudan fuel crisis halts transport, December 21, 2017 | SUDAN Khartoum and a number of Sudanese states are experiencing a severe bread and fuel crisis. Transport has ground to a halt leaving many stranded. Short rations deepen food shortage in Darfur camps, December 20, 2017 | DARFUR The Darfur Displaced and Refugees Association complains that little food aid has reached the displaced camps in Darfur for more than four months. The Association has warned of the consequences of this and its impact on the displaced people in the light of the failure of the agricultural season this year. MPs warn parliament for looming food gap in Sudan, December 19, 2017 | KHARTOUM Sudanese members of parliament have warned for a looming food gap in Sudan as a result of the low production of sorghum in the current agricultural season. Sudan Parliamentary Health Committee predicts ‘impending disaster’ as medicine prices soar, December 18, 2017 | KHARTOUM The health committee of the Sudanese Parliament expects an ‘impending disaster in the pharmaceutical sector’ and announced that foreign companies have stopped supplying medical supplies and lifesaving and chronic disease medicines because of the accumulation of debts. The committee chair, Imtithal El Rayah El Tireif, acknowledged that medicine prices have increased threefold, putting them beyond people’s affordability. Flour shortage sees long queues at bakeries in Sudan, December 17, 2017 | SAWAKIN / ATBARA / EL OBEYED The residents of Sawakin in Sudan’s Red Sea State have complained of a severe bread crisis that has lasted for more than a month. People must queue at bakeries for many hours in the hope of buying some bread. Some bakeries have shut-down altogether. Sudan’s currency traders fearful as US Dollar tops SDG 26.20, December 17, 2017 | KHARTOUM The value of the Sudanese Pound (SDG) continues to fall against the US Dollar, with the greenback now trading at SDG 26.20 on the Khartoum parallel market. Foreign currency dealers said there is great fear when dealing directly with their customers after the penalties and security measures adopted by the authorities in November, in an attempt to stem the unofficial foreign exchange market. “Trade monopoly” pushes-up grain prices in eastern Sudan, December 17, 2017 | EL GEDAREF The prices for sorghum and sesame have risen sharply in Sudan’s El Gedaref – a hike attributed to a limited number of traders controlling the market. Refinery shutdown: Fuel crisis looms in Sudan, December 13, 2017 | OMDURMAN Economists have predicted the Sudan will face a serious fuel crisis in the coming months following the scheduled shutdown of the Khartoum refinery in early March for maintenance and the final decommissioning of the Port Sudan refinery. Chairman of the Economic Affairs Committee of the Sudan Parliament, Ali Mahmoud, has attributed the economic problems experienced by the country to “the government buying US Dollars from the black market for the purpose of buying oil. This led to the decrease of the Sudanese Pound and the rise in prices of consumer goods.” Thousands of wheat fields dry up in Sudan agricultural scheme, December 12, 2017 | EL GEZIRA A lack of irrigation water has caused at least 60,000 acres of wheat fields in El Gezira Agricultural Scheme to dry up. Member of Parliament Adlan Mahmoud reported the lack of irrigation water in El Gezira scheme, located between the Blue and White Niles south of Khartoum, which used to be one of the world’s largest irrigation project. Medicine shortage a risk for patients in Sudan hospitals, December 11, 2017 | KHARTOUM The prevalence of expired medicines in hospitals in Khartoum has reportedly led to direct health risks for patients. The current medicine crisis is exacerbating, with hospitals being unable to purchase medicines. Medical sources in Khartoum reported that the available dialysis solutions will be depleted within a week from now, which they think will pose a direct risk to kidney patients. They told Radio Dabanga that large quantities of expired injections have been withdrawn from the hospitals recently. North Darfur drivers call for action against high transit fees, December 11, 2017 | UM KEDDADA Passenger and commercial vehicles have complained about the levies imposed on them on the road between El Kuma and Um Keddada in North Darfur. El Ingaz road connects the two localities. Passing the toll gates, bus and vehicle drivers have to pay transit fees to security or militia forces. Pharmacists warn of medicine scarcity in Sudan, December 8, 2017 | KHARTOUM While medicine prices increase, some life-saving medicines have become scarce in Khartoum and other states. Patients and their attendants complained that medicines have become unaffordable. Some medicines prices have exceeded the price issued that the board of medicines issues in 2016, pharmacist Awad Mohamed said. “The price of Atakat tablets for blood pressure has risen from SDG 280 ($41.70) to SDG 418 ($62.30). The price for one of the categories of diabetes drugs has risen from SDG 550 ($82) to SDG 1037 ($154.60).” Sudan food prices soar, December 3, 2017 | KHARTOUM / EL FASHER / SAWAKIN The prices of foodstuffs and consumer goods, especially meat and sugar, have soared in various Sudanese states, as demand exceeds supply. Last week the price of a kilogramme of beef in Khartoum rose from SDG 70 ($10,50) to SDG 100 ($15) and lamb from SDG 130 ($20) to SDG 150 ($22,50). [7] Sudan’s economy has entered a melt-down phase Eric Reeves | December 21, 2017 | https://wp.me/p45rOG-2aK Sudan’s economy has entered a melt-down phase, and civil unrest is bound to follow; it will be met with ferocious repression, already evident in seizure of newspapers publishing economic data and NISS surveillance of fuel stations and bakeries. These are the consequences of decades of gross mismanagement: • Widespread bread shortages, Sudan fuel crisis halts transport | Radio Dabanga | December 21, 2017 | SUDAN Khartoum and a number of Sudanese states are experiencing a severe bread and fuel crisis. Transport has ground to a halt leaving many stranded. On Tuesday and Wednesday the main stations of El Shuhada in Omdurman, the central station in Khartoum North (Bahri), the stadium and Jackson in Khartoum were crowded with hundreds of people after the vehicles stopped because of lack of fuel. Northern State Witnesses from Karma in the Northern State said the security services are monitoring the fuel stations and allowing each person to take no more than three gallons. They explained that any quantities more than that must be certified by the security services. El Gezira State El Gezira state is experiencing a severe fuel and bread crisis. Residents of Wad Madani told Radio Dabanga about the lack of fuel at most of the city’s fuel stations except for three. They said the vehicles line up in long queues in front of the fuel stations since early morning. Wad Madani is daily witnessing a lack of bread during the evening and the price of a loaf of bread rises outside the bakeries to one Pound by the evening. Sennar State Residents of Senga in Sennar have complained of lack of fuel in the stations as a result of the lack of access to the state’s fuel quota. They also complain of the deepening bread crisis in the city during the past two days. They said that the security services limit people from taking more than a few of bread for a family without permission. South Kordofan State Abu Jubeiha in South Kordofan is experiencing a severe bread crisis. People said that there is no bread to be found in the bakeries after 10 am. The owners of bakeries attributed the crisis to the fact that the quota of flour given to them by economic security is only three sacks a day. El Gedaref State The bread crisis in El Gedaref has entered its second month without finding a solution from the authorities. The residents said they stand in long lines in front of bakeries for hours without getting enough bread. They say that a number of bakeries are closed during day and evening periods because of the reduction of the daily quota of flour. North Kordofan State Residents of El Obeid in North Kordofan have renewed their complaint about the worsening of bread crisis. They said they there are no looming signs for resolving the crisis. The press leaders have received instructions by telephone from the security services not to publish any press material on the bread and fuel crisis in many cities of the country. [This is a portrait of an economy in melt-down: two critical commodities—bread and fuel—are unavailable because the Khartoum regime has so badly mismanaged the economy, including the agricultural sector, that there is no enough hard currency, foreign exchange currency (Forex), to purchase imports of flour and refined petroleum products, including diesel fuel. The regime made developed no significant domestic refining capacity during the years it was flush with petro-dollars (1999 – 2011); it has allowed the agricultural sector of the economy to decay so that instead of being a net exporter of agricultural products, Sudan is a net importer especially of wheat for flour to make into bread, now in such short supply. Mismanagement, misplaced priorities, and fantastically gross self-enrichment have left ordinary people of Sudan without a critical food item or the ability to move within and between cities. Essential medicines are unavailable as well. The absurdity of blaming U.S. economic sanctions for the crisis is coming fully into focus, despite the foolish and ignorant pronouncements by the UN, IMF, and others. And yet if the U.S. State Department lifts the designation of Khartoum as a “state sponsor of terrorism” this May, Khartoum will become eligible for international debt relief: Sudan’s external debt now exceeds $50 billion and cannot be serviced, let alone repaid, by the regime amidst its current self-inflicted economic crisis. Past history makes clear that debt relief will be little more than a tool for accelerated self-enrichment by the regime and its cronies–ER] http://sudanreeves.org/2018/01/09/sudans-economic-catastrophe-a-compendium-of-very-recent-reports/ (c) 2018 SUDAN Research, Analysis, and Advocacy

Myanmar is set to put two reporters from the Reuters news agency on trial this week after they were charged under a colonial-era state secrets act, in a case that highlights growing concerns about press freedom in the country. Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo were arrested Dec. 12 for allegedly acquiring “important secret papers” from two police officers. The officers had worked in Rakhine state, where abuses widely blamed on Myanmar’s military have driven hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims to flee into neighboring Bangladesh. The charges against the two are punishable by up to 14 years in prison. Rights and media groups have criticized Myanmar’s new civilian government led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi for continuing to use colonial-era laws to threaten and imprison journalists. Such laws were widely used by the military junta that previously ruled the country to muzzle critics and the media. Under the current government, at least 32 journalists have been charged, mostly under colonial-era laws, according to the local group We Support Journalists. “Such arrests and laws were widely used by the military junta to shut us down,” the group’s founder, Maung Saungkha, said by phone. “But it’s sad to see media freedom is even worse under the so-called democratically elected government.” The arrest of the two Myanmar journalists, whose trial begins Wednesday, caused an international outcry. After they were detained, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the arrests showed how press freedom was deteriorating in Myanmar, while U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for their immediate release. “A free press is critical to a free society_the detention of journalists anywhere is unacceptable,” former President Bill Clinton tweeted Monday. “The Reuters journalists being held in Myanmar should be released immediately.” Reuters President and Editor-in-Chief Stephen J. Adler also has called on Myanmar to free the journalists. “Their arrest and continued incarceration represent an egregious attack on press freedom — preventing them, and deterring other journalists, from reporting independently in Myanmar,” Adler said in a statement Monday. Critics and rights groups say that in some respects, press freedom in Myanmar is more restrictive now than it was during the previous quasi-civilian administration, which bridged the former military government to the current civilian one. Suu Kyi’s government, which has been in power for two years, has done nothing to change laws that create barriers to a free press. “Nearly two years later, we have been gravely disappointed by the lack of progress on legal reform and the new clampdown on journalists under Suu Kyi’s rule,” said Shawn Crispin, senior Southeast Asia representative for the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists. In November, Myanmar authorities sentenced two foreign journalists working for Turkish state broadcaster TRT, along with their local interpreter and driver, to two months in prison for flying a drone over the parliament building. All four were released in late December. A few days after the Reuters journalists were arrested, Myanmar President Htin Kyaw, a close ally and confidant of Suu Kyi, the country’s de facto leader, authorized police to proceed with the charges against them. Despite facing heavy criticism for the move, the government said it was simply implementing the rule of law. “It’s up to the court to decide whether the journalists are guilty or not because as a government, we don’t interfere in the country’s judicial system,” said government spokesman Zaw Htay. Wa Lone, who joined Reuters in June 2016, has covered a range of stories related to the Rohingya crisis, while Kyaw Soe Oo began working for the news agency in September. Since their arrest, they’ve been held in the country’s notorious Insein prison. More than 650,000 Rohingya have fled from Myanmar into Bangladesh since Aug. 25, when Myanmar’s army began what it called “clearance operations” following an attack on police posts by Rohingya insurgents. The aid group Doctors Without Borders estimates at least 6,700 Rohingya civilians were killed in the first month of the crackdown. Since the crisis in northern Rakhine state began, new restrictions on press access have made it nearly impossible for journalists to cover independently in the region. “Suu Kyi’s government clearly feels foreign media coverage of the Rohingya crisis has damaged its international image and now it’s fighting back through bogus legal threats and jailing of journalists,” Crispin said. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/myanmar-trial-set-to-begin-for-2-reuters-journalists/2018/01/08/3b74bb90-f4d5-11e7-9af7-a50bc3300042_story.html?utm_term=.ec1183eb0c4d (c) 2018 The Washington Post

(c) 2018 STAND

As the Chinese government tries to project the image of a modern, powerful nation with a great future for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) points out that China is one of the world’s worst countries as regards respect for the freedom to inform. President Xi Jinping is receiving Macron with great fanfare, and hopes that little attention will be paid to the delicate issue of the systematic human rights violations on which his rule is based. RSF nonetheless reminds all concerned that China is ranked very near the bottom of the RSF World Press Freedom Index – 176th out of 180 countries. At least 15 professional journalists and 39 citizen-journalists are currently detained in China, according to RSF’s latest tally. The government no longer sentences press freedom defenders to death but it gives them long jail terms and has a deliberate policy of mistreating them and denying them medical care while they are detained. Both Liu Xiaobo, the 2010 Nobel peace laureate, and Yang Tongyan, a blogger, died last year from cancers that were left untreated while they were detained. The artist Liu Xia (Liu Xiaobo’s widow) and the journalist Huang Qi, a 2004 RSF Press Freedom laureate and founder of the 64 Tianwang website (which was awarded the RSF prize in 2016), are currently detained in isolation and in such appalling conditions that colleagues fear for their lives. “While France can justify developing its relations with China, it cannot ignore the massive violations of the freedom to inform,” said Cédric Alviani, the head of RSF’s East Asia desk. “We count on President Macron to firmly remind the Chinese of France’s commitment to the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and to press for the release of prominent detainees such as Liu Xia and Huang Qi.” New world information order Under President Xi, Internet surveillance has come to be practiced on an industrial scale and the Great Firewall keeps 750 million Internet users away from foreign news websites. At least 2 million people are employed to censor and spy on them, that is to say, one censor for every 375 Internet users. Several people received jail sentences last year for comments posted online or made during private chats on messaging services. In a recent opinion piece published in seven languages, RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire urged the world’s parliamentary democracies to take a stand against the danger of contamination by China’s repressive model. It is no longer just a question of Chinese “internal policy,” as the government claims. In practice, China is doing more and more to project its “new information order” internationally, an order based on censorship and surveillance, one that leaves no room for journalistic ethics and the public’s right to information. https://rsf.org/en/news/chinese-regimes-true-face-one-worst-free-speech-predators (c) 2018 Reporters without Borders

Call for Applications Summer Institute for Genocide Studies and Prevention (Deadline: March 2, 2018) The 2nd biennial Summer Institute for Genocide Studies and Prevention will be held June 4-8, 2018 at Keene State College in Keene, New Hampshire (US). Keene State, a public liberal arts institution, is home to the Cohen Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies, one of the nation’s oldest Holocaust resource centers, and also offers the only undergraduate major in Holocaust and Genocide Studies in the United States. The College’s specialized library collection and related campus resources provide unique facilities for teaching and research in genocide studies. Objectives: The 2018 institute, hosted by the Department of Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Keene State, an interdisciplinary department in the School of Arts & Humanities, follows on the success of the inaugural 2016 institute in supporting the following objectives: (1) Promote study, research and teaching in the growing field of genocide studies and prevention as a self-standing scholarly discipline that is distinct and independent from the existing schools of academic inquiry. (2) Encourage participating institutions to develop courses, academic modules and foreign study programs incorporating genocide studies and prevention into department teaching. (3) Strengthen institutional capacity in terms of teacher-scholars conducting research in genocide studies and prevention, with an ultimate goal of developing interdisciplinary academic specializations in the field (that is, a major, minor, or area of concentration) at participating institutions. Program: Drawing on a global range of historical case studies, and current crisis spots, the 2018 Summer Institute will focus on the study, research and teaching of genocide prevention across all phases of the conflict cycle: preventing genocide from ever taking place (upstream prevention or the “before” analysis of risk factors and warning signs), preventing further atrocities once genocide has begun (midstream prevention or the immediate, real-time response tools available during crisis), and preventing future atrocities once a society has begun to rebuild after genocide (downstream prevention or the “after” efforts to foster resiliency in a post-atrocity society). The Summer Institute is intended primarily for full-time college or university teachers interested, or already teaching, in the field of genocide studies. Faculty intending to develop new courses or academic programs incorporating genocide studies and prevention into department teaching are particularly encouraged to apply. Current PhD students and post-docs with similar teaching interests also will be considered, as will museum educators. The institute is intentionally interdisciplinary, so encourages applications from across the disciplinary spectrum. Directors and Instructional Team: The institute director is Dr. James Waller, Cohen Professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Keene State and chair of the Department of Holocaust and Genocide Studies. Waller is author of Becoming Evil: How Ordinary People Commit Genocide and Mass Killing (2002, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press) and Confronting Evil: Engaging Our Responsibility to Prevent Genocide (2016, Oxford University Press). He also serves as the Director of Academic Programs for the Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation (http://www.auschwitzinstitute.org/ ), an international NGO devoted to the prevention of genocide and mass atrocity. In 2017, Waller was the inaugural recipient of the Engaged Scholarship Prize from the International Association of Genocide Scholars. Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation www.auschwitzinstitute.org The Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation is building a world that prevents genocide and other mass atrocities. Dr. Waller is joined by associate director, Dr. Ashley Greene, Assistant Professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Keene State College and the Academic Programs Officer for Africa with the Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation. She holds a joint Ph.D. in Peace Studies and History from the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame. Greene’s research and fieldwork focuses on the role of education in post-conflict and transitional societies in East Africa. The Summer Institute’s instructional team also will include internationally-recognized academics and practitioners from the field of genocide studies and prevention. In addition, recognizing the expertise participants will bring to the institute, each participant will have an opportunity to workshop syllabi, course ideas, modules, assignments, etc. with fellow participants. Financial Support: Due to a generous gift from the Charles E. Scheidt Family Foundation, the Summer Institute is funded to provide fellows five nights of single lodging in a recently-opened air-conditioned campus dormitory, food for the entirety of the institute, and a $800 fellowship stipend. Participants may use their fellowship stipend however they see fit, including helping to offset travel costs to and from the institute for those participants who may have difficulty receiving travel funding from their home institutions. There is no tuition fee for the institute. The institute is funded to allow for 18 participants. Participants are expected to be at the institute for its duration (arrival on Sunday afternoon/evening June 3 by 5PM and departure after 1PM on Friday afternoon June 8). Keene State is in the Currier & Ives southwest corner of New Hampshire and enjoys beautiful summers with vibrant recreational and cultural activities. Application: To apply for the 2018 Summer Institute, please send a (a) statement of interest, (b) list of related courses or modules currently taught (or interested in developing), and (c) CV to Dr. Ashley Greene atashley.greene@keene.edu. The application deadline is March 2, 2018 with selection decisions communicated by March 16, 2018. (c) 2018 Keene State College

In a press statement released last week, the State Department announced it has re-designated Burma, China, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as Countries of Particular Concern under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. In a first, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson also announced January 4 that the State Department added Pakistan to the Special Watch List for religious freedom violations. The Special Watch List – created by the Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act of 2016 – seeks to provide a way to monitor countries that do not meet all criteria of the CPC designation, but still commit ongoing religious freedom violations. The press release acknowledged: “In far too many places around the globe, people continue to be persecuted, unjustly prosecuted, or imprisoned for exercising their right to freedom of religion or belief … The protection of religious freedom is vital to peace, stability, and prosperity. These designations are aimed at improving the respect for religious freedom in these countries. The United States remains committed to working with governments, civil society organizations, and religious leaders to advance religious freedom around the world.” The addition of Pakistan to the Special Watch List was encouraging to many in the international religious freedom community. For the past 15 years, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has recommended that the Secretary of State designate Pakistan as a CPC. In its own press release, USCIRF wasn’t as complimentary: “Given the strong stance that President Trump has taken on Pakistan recently, the failure to designate Pakistan as a CPC this year comes as a surprise and disappointment.” Some of Pakistan’s abuses include strict blasphemy laws, anti-Ahmadi Muslim provisions, forced conversions and a climate of impunity for terrorist groups that violate religious freedom laws. Pakistan is also home to Asia Bibi, a Christian woman sentenced to death for blasphemy in 2010. She remains imprisoned in an eight-by-10-foot prison cell. In the fall, Members of both the House and Senate wrote letters to the Administration requesting that Pakistan’s CPC designation be made. 21st Century Wilberforce Initiative President Randel Everett and Distinguished Senior Fellow Frank Wolf also wrote a letter encouraging the same. While the addition of Pakistan to the Special Watch List does not go as far as some may have hoped, it is a step in the right direction after a decade-and-a-half of inaction. Abigail Berg Director of Government Relations Take Action: 1. One of the leading experts on Pakistan in the U.S. is the country’s former parliamentarian, Farahnaz Ispahani. Read her book, “Purifying the Land of the Pure: A History of Pakistan’s Religious Minorities (Oxford University Press, 2017). 2. Write to President Donald Trump, urging him to advocate on behalf of Asia Bibi. 3. Sign the petition to free Asia Bibi: https://beheardproject.com/asia-bibi.

Over the past four months, Myanmar’s armed forces, officially known as the Tatmadaw, have driven over 600,000 Rohingya Muslims into Bangladesh, killing thousands of civilians in the process and prompting the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to label the army’s actions “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing” and possibly genocide. One might expect this situation to fall squarely within the ambit of the International Criminal Court (ICC), but the case remains conspicuously absent from the Court’s docket. The reason the ICC Prosecutor has not opened an investigation is simple: Myanmar is not a party to the Rome Statute, significantly limiting the Court’s jurisdiction over crimes within Myanmar’s territory. The UN Security Council can refer situations to the ICC concerning non-states parties, but China would undoubtedly veto any such resolution. Nor is it likely that Myanmar will accept jurisdiction unilaterally. The only remaining jurisdictional basis requires identifying conduct either on the territory, or perpetrated by a national, of a state party. But the conflict does involve actions by a non-state party – Myanmar – that have carried over onto the territory of a state party to the Rome Statute: Bangladesh. This cross-border activity could provide the basis for territorial jurisdiction, which the ICC lacks over conflicts that take place entirely within countries that are not members of the Court. Asserting this form of territorial jurisdiction would be consistent with the meaning of the Rome Statute and would advance the Court’s purpose of preventing impunity for grave international crimes. Factual Background Within three weeks after the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army’s (ARSA) Aug. 25 attack on Myanmar army and police outposts, satellite imagery indicated at least 200 Rohingya villages in Rakhine State had been burned. Around the same time, reports emerged of Myanmar armed forces raiding Rohingya villages and “murder[ing] scores of people.” Before the ARSA attacks, approximately 300,000 Rohingya lived in refugee camps just over the border from Rakhine State in Bangladesh. Since then, over 600,000 more Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh, totaling over half the Rohingya population believed to have been living in Myanmar. A UN investigation into these events produced “[c]redible information . . . that the Myanmar security forces purposely destroyed the property of the Rohingyas, scorched their dwellings and entire villages in northern Rakhine State, not only to drive the population out in droves but also to prevent . . . [them] from returning to their homes.” The same report found that the Tatmadaw used megaphones during some attacks “to announce: ‘go to Bangladesh. If you do not leave, we will torch your houses and kill you.’” Substantive Grounds for Prosecution These reports provide evidence that the Tatmadaw violated Article 7(1)(d) of the Rome Statute, which prohibits “[d]eportation or forcible transfer of the population” as a crime against humanity. Under the ICC Elements of Crimes (“Elements”), to violate Article 7(1)(d) the perpetrator must (1) unlawfully deport to “another State” by expulsion or coercion (2) persons lawfully present in the area from which they were driven (3) as part of a systematic attack against the civilian population (4) the nature of which the perpetrator was aware. Burning villages, shooting and raping civilians, and explicitly demanding that the population leave Myanmar, followed by the prompt exodus of half the Rohingya population, provides substantial evidence of forceful expulsion “as part of a widespread or systematic attack” orchestrated by Myanmar’s armed forces. Although Myanmar claims the Rohingya’s presence is unlawful, the “reality,” as Human Rights Watch explains, “is that the Rohingya have had a well established presence in the country since the twelfth century.” Deportation need not involve physically transporting individuals across a border. The Article 7(1)(d) Elements make clear that “[t]he term ‘forcibly’ . . . may include threat of force or coercion, such as that caused by fear of violence.” Likewise, the ICC Trial Chamber in Prosecutor v. Ruto held that, in order to establish deportation or forcible transfer, “the Prosecutor has to prove that one or more acts that the perpetrator performed . . . produced the effect to deport or forcibly transfer.” The Tatmadaw’s actions thus provide a textbook example of the indirect form of deportation that Article 7(1)(d) criminalizes. Furthermore, although it is not necessary for a state party’s domestic law to abolish activities prohibited under the Rome Statute in order for the ICC to prosecute those crimes, it is worth noting that Bangladesh explicitly criminalizes deportation as a crime against humanity under the International Crimes (Tribunals) Act (ICTA). Bangladesh enacted the ICTA in response to the 1971 War of Independence, when Pakistani forces drove millions of Bangladeshis into India, reinforcing the ICC’s authority to prosecute such crimes taking place in Bangladesh today. Jurisdiction Unless the UN Security Council refers a situation to the Prosecutor, Article 12(2) of the Rome Statute provides that the Court may exercise jurisdiction in two situations: 1) “the State on the territory of which the conduct in question occurred” is party to the Statute, or, “if the crime was committed on board a vessel or aircraft, the State of registration of that vessel or aircraft;” or 2) “the state of which the person accused of the crime is a national.” Since the UN Security Council has not referred the Myanmar situation to the ICC and no state party national appears to be complicit, territoriality is the Court’s only viable source of jurisdiction. However, the Statute leaves unanswered whether the “territory” on which “the conduct in question occurred” covers the territory of multiple states in which the crimes occur, some of which may not be state parties. No ICC case has addressed this issue either. Thus, there is an open question of whether the Court could assert territorial jurisdiction over unlawful deportation from Myanmar into Bangladesh. One approach would be to treat an element of deportation as crossing a state border. Deportation is an inherently cross-border action that is dependent on – and is not complete until the deportees enter – another state. Thus, in the parlance of the Rome Statute, one could argue that deportation is “conduct” that necessarily occurs on the territory of both the deporting and receiving states. From this perspective, when Myanmar deports Rohingya civilians to Bangladesh, the conduct occurs in both of those states. A possible challenge to this interpretation is that “conduct in question” should be defined more narrowly to include only the underlying actions taken to effectuate a crime, not necessarily the results of those actions. Since the Myanmar armed forces did not cross into Bangladesh themselves in effectuating the deportation, arguably the crime did not occur on Bangladeshi territory. This raises a second possible source of territorial jurisdiction: the state where the direct effects of the crime take place, even if no elements of the crime occur in that state. Traditional principles of international criminal law divide territoriality into two concepts: subjective territoriality refers to the location where the underlying actions of a crime occur, whereas objective territoriality refers to the location where a crime has effects. Based on these principles, even if an element of deportation does not cross a state border, the ICC could assert objective territorial jurisdiction over the situation in Myanmar given that the main effects of the crime have occurred in a state party. Asserting objective territorial jurisdiction would undoubtedly be controversial given that the ICC has not done so before and the Rome Statute does not specify whether “conduct in question” includes the effects of a crime. To be credible, such an assertion would need to be firmly grounded in the sources of law Article 21 instructs consulting in cases of statutory ambiguity: the text of the Statute; the ICC Elements; “applicable treaties and the principles and rules of international law;” and, “failing that, general principles of law” derived from national legal systems, including the laws of “States that would normally exercise jurisdiction over the crime.” In terms of the Statute’s text, one could argue that “conduct” ought to be limited to the physical actions underlying a broader crime. Article 30, for example, distinguishes between conduct and consequences in addressing mens rea requirements. Likewise, Article 20(1) prohibits trying a person based on “conduct which formed the basis of crimes” for which he was previously convicted, indicating that “crimes” may have a broader meaning than “conduct.” But there are other reasons why each of these articles would distinguish between conduct, on the one hand, and consequences or crimes, on the other: in Article 30, to clarify that the perpetrator must intend the consequences as well as the underlying actions; and in Article 20(1) because the same actions and consequences can form the basis of different crimes. Evidently, as Michail Vagias argues in his book, the word “conduct” can mean different things in different contexts within the Rome Statute. In the jurisdictional clause, Article 12(2)(a), the “conduct in question” over which the Court has jurisdiction refers to a crime, which includes both underlying actions and effects. Article 12(2)(a) gives the ICC jurisdiction over the relevant crimes if they are committed in “the State on the territory of which the conduct in question occurred or, if the crime was committed on board a vessel or aircraft, the State of registration of that vessel or aircraft.” The wording of this clause suggests that “conduct in question” and “crime” are synonymous. Affording different meanings to these terms would create the strange result of permitting objective territorial jurisdiction over sea-and air-based crimes, but not over those carried out on land. If the Statute does not fully resolve whether “conduct” encompasses the effects of a crime, the principles and rules of international law are clearer. In the Lotus case, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that Turkey could assert jurisdiction over the criminal actions that led a French ship to collide with a Turkish ship because the effects of the crime occurred on Turkish territory, even though the underlying actions occurred on French territory. Furthermore, states view territorial jurisdiction as encompassing both subjective and objective territoriality as a matter of customary international law (CIL). For example, Restatement (Third) of U.S. Foreign Relations Law Section 402, which the United States views as reflecting CIL, provides that a state has jurisdiction over external conduct that has effects within the state’s territory. The general principles of law derived from national legal systems, including the “laws of states that would normally exercise jurisdiction over the crime,” support this view as well. China (Art. 6), Britain, France (Art. 113-2) (France requires that one of the “constituent elements” is committed on French territory), Germany, and the United States – to name just a few countries – all assert jurisdiction over both the underlying conduct and effects of crimes that occur on their territory. While Myanmar (Art. 179) leaves open to judicial interpretation whether courts can assert jurisdiction over crimes that originate abroad, its internal districts may assert jurisdiction if the crime produces effects in their territory. And although the Bangladeshi Penal Code (Art. 2) covers crimes committed “within Bangladesh” without specifically including or excluding objective territorial jurisdiction, other Bangladeshi laws do incorporate this form of jurisdiction. The Bangladesh Competition Act (Art. 3(m), 19), for example, extends jurisdiction over anti-competitive practices originating abroad that have effects in Bangladesh. Thus, there is no reason to doubt that Bangladesh accepts the general principle of objective territorial jurisdiction. To be sure, there are grounds for caution in applying objective territoriality under Article 12(2)(a). The ICC operates based on the consent of sovereign states, and treating the Court’s territorial jurisdiction as encompassing non-state parties in certain situations pushes the boundaries of that principle. However, the object and purpose of the Statute is “to put an end to impunity for the perpetrators of [grave international] crimes,” which counsels in favor of asserting jurisdiction where non-state parties take advantage of their status to commit international crimes the effects of which occur in state parties. Furthermore, the potential abuse of objective territoriality can be contained. Restatement (Third) Section 403 requires that the exercise of objective territorial jurisdiction be reasonable, which means the activity has a “substantial, direct, and foreseeable effect on the territory.” Such a standard would limit the extent to which the Court could assert territorial jurisdiction based on second-order effects of crimes originating on the territory of a non-state party. Conclusions These principles of territoriality provide a basis for asserting jurisdiction over the Myanmar armed forces’ violations of Article 7(1)(d). The recent UN report provides evidence that the country’s armed forces are systematically attempting to permanently displace the Rohingya into a state party to the Rome Statute. These actions comfortably satisfy the Restatement’s reasonableness test: nearly 650,000 displaced civilians is surely substantial; the Rohingya’s proximity to the Bangladeshi border when they lived in Myanmar makes their flight to Bangladesh a “direct” result of Tatmadaw clearance operations in that area; and Myanmar’s past experience with Rohingya fleeing to Bangladesh due to the regime’s repression makes the result “foreseeable.” The crisis in Myanmar also satisfies the Statute’s other jurisdictional requirements. Article 17(1)(d)’s gravity requirement is likely satisfied given that over half of the Rohingya population in Myanmar – nearly 650,000 civilians – were displaced. Although the Court would not have jurisdiction over the violent acts both the Tatmadaw and ARSA committed in Myanmar, the sheer scale of the Rohingya’s deportation in proportion to Myanmar’s broader conflict is arguably sufficient to constitute a “situation,” as required under Article 13. And with respect to complementarity under Article 17(1)(a), there is no indication any other state is investigating these crimes – Bangladesh’s “Citizens’ Commission” would not qualify since it is not led by the state. Prosecuting crimes against humanity presents immense challenges far beyond meeting jurisdictional requirements, including evidence collection, identifying the correct perpetrators, and summoning the suspects for a hearing. These challenges are only amplified in states not party to the Rome Statute. Nonetheless, as a legal matter, lack of jurisdiction remains a central reason behind the ICC’s failure to formally investigate international crimes in Myanmar. Asserting objective territorial jurisdiction offers a way around that challenge and could help deprive human rights violators of a safe-haven, which they have used to injure nearly a million innocent civilians. https://www.justsecurity.org/50793/icc-jurisdiction-rohingya-crisis-myanmar/ (c) 2018 Just Security

Rohingya people were still arriving here - the New Year bringing no end to the reports of violence and fears, which forced them to flee their homes in Myanmar, says the IOM on Monday. Over 2,400 Rohingyas are estimated to have arrived in Bangladesh during December 2017, with more people continuing to arrive each day as 2018 begins, according to the UN Migration Agency. A major upsurge of violence in Northern Rakhine State of Myanmar, in late August 2017 forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes. While the number of daily arrivals has dropped significantly since the height of the influx, many of those now reaching Bangladesh say they faced additional challenges, which delayed their escape. "We couldn't leave before now because our village was surrounded. A month ago my two sons were slaughtered. They went out fishing and they were killed," said 50-year-old Ahmed, who was one of the first to arrive in Bangladesh in 2018 along with his two daughters, aged 20 and 18, and his 15-year-old son. He said that the family had endured weeks of fear in their village in Rathedaung, Rakhine, unable to leave their house even to collect firewood. Ahmed said that they had to pay a bribe of 150,000 kyat (c.USD $112) to the neighbours, who had been threatening them, to be allowed to leave. On arrival at the Balukhali settlement in Cox's Bazar, Ahmed and his remaining family received medical check-ups and shelter kits of ropes, tarpaulins and basic household goods to enable them to create a place to live in the sprawling camps where 655,000 other refugees have sought safety since August. "I feel safe here," said Ahmed's 18-year-old daughter Raysuana, who said her mother had died years ago and her father had worked hard to bring up his family alone as a widower. As they waited at the arrival point in Balukhali, a puddle of water fell through a section of the tarpaulin roof. The unexpected noise left Ahmed badly shaken. "We continue to see a great deal of distress among Rohingya survivors arriving in Bangladesh," said Olga Rebolledo, IOM's mental health and psycho-social support coordinator in Cox's Bazar. "They have faced a lot of adversity and many are in need of psycho-social support to help restore a sense of safety and further strengthen the resilience they've already shown," added Rebolledo. As an indication of why some of the new arrivals have reached Bangladesh so many weeks after the main influx, out of the 17 families waiting to be led to their new shelter sites by IOM, the UN Migration Agency, on January 4, ten were declared "extremely vulnerable" cases: mostly single mothers, widows or people with disabilities, who will struggle to build their own shelters or even survive without the additional support, which will be provided by IOM and partner organisations. IOM guided the "extremely vulnerable" new arrivals to the less congested part of the site, where they will live, helping carrying their shelter kits. Once they got to the new site, help was given to construct their shelters. "The houses on both sides of ours [in Buthidaung, Rakhine] were burned. Only my house was left," said one of the new arrivals, Asama Begum, 35 years old. Her husband died before the violence, leaving her with a new baby and a son now 15 years old. She said the teenager was attacked a few months earlier leaving him with a badly cut leg, which became infected and swollen, rendering him unable to escape when others fled their village. "I stayed because my son was sick. We were really scared to be alone in the house, but tried just to find the mental strength to stay. But then [people] started burning down the [remaining] empty houses around ours and we could not stay any longer," said Asama. She said she paid someone to carry her son to safety. "After moving from one country to another, at least, we are getting this shelter. It is so peaceful here. We weren't even allowed to stand freely in our own country so getting this means a lot," she said as she stood looking out at the shelter she was about to move into. Nearby, Ahmed was about to become her new neighbour. Initially anxious about how he would clear the ground on which he would build his shelter, he relaxed after IOM partner's site management volunteers put him in touch with the maji camp leader who was able to lend him tools. "It will be peaceful here. No one is chasing or torturing us. No fear of death here. I witnessed my daughter was tortured and my sons were slaughtered. I will never go back. I'd rather die here," said Ahmed. http://www.thedailystar.net/rohingya-crisis/2018-brings-no-end-to-violence-against-rohingya-refugee-problem-in-bangladesh-says-united-nations-1516693 (c) 2018 The Daily Star