Aung San Suu Kyi, one of the contemporary world's most celebrated icons of human rights, non-violence and reconciliation, crossed the line into Myanmar's world of "Buddhist" Islamophobia. Disturbingly, on BBC Radio Four's flagship programme, "Today", she characterised the waves of organised violence and Nazi-like hate campaigns currently being committed by her fellow Buddhists - the lay public and clergy alike - as violence of two equal sides, claiming that Burmese Buddhists live in the perceived fear of the rise of great Muslim power worldwide. As a revered dissident, Aung San Suu Kyi's idea of 'freedom from fear' inspired millions both in Myanmar and world-wide. I think she herself has succumbed to a different type of fear, namely Islamophobia. Far from recent waves of violence being horizontal communal violence, the truth is that the country's Rohingya Muslims - numbering 1.3 million out of the country's 60 million people - have been the subject of a slowly unfolding genocide. This is the conclusion I have drawn from a three-year study that I have just completed with a researcher colleague at the London-based Equal Rights Trust. A history of ethnic cleansing In February 1978, the military-controlled state launched its first large-scale operation in Arakan State (now known as Rakhine) in western Myanmar. This first exodus of an estimated 240,000 into neighbouring Bangladesh, took place long before the West's "war on terror" against "radical Islam." The Oxford-educated Nobel Peace Prize laureate whom the majority of Burmese, including Muslims, call "Mother Suu" can only be using what she calls the "great rise of Muslim power" as a convenient excuse. When Aung San Suu Kyi observed that Myanmar's Buddhists and Muslims, of diverse ethnic backgrounds, fear one another, she was falsely putting them on a moral parity. Worryingly, she displays deep ignorance of the empirical facts: It is the Muslims that have borne the brunt of death, destruction and displacement. The Rohingya and other Muslims make up more than 70 percent of the victims of violence, which has displaced more than 140,000 in Rakhine State. Anti-Muslim violence spread to 11 different towns elsewhere in the country, resulting in 100 Muslim deaths, displacing 12,000 Muslims, and destroying 1,300 Muslim homes and 32 Mosques. Since the 1990s, Rohingya Muslims of northern Arakan state have been confined within a web of security grids where they are subject to extreme restrictions of movement, preventing them from accessing adequate healthcare, education and jobs. Summary executions, rape, extortions, forced labour and other human rights atrocities, mostly at the hands of state security forces, are rampant. Restrictions on marriages and births have resulted in over 60,000 Rohingya children who are not registered or recognised by the Burmese government, in violation of the Rights of Child, hence depriving them of access to basic schooling. In a country that has one of the highest adult literacy rates in Asia, a staggering 80 percent of Rohingya adults are illiterate. The doctor-patient ratio among the Rohingya Muslims is 1 to 75,000 and 1 to 83,000 in the two major ancestral pockets of the Rohingya respectively, as compared with the national average of 1 to 375. Suu Kyi's denial of what Human Rights Watch report has called "ethnic cleansing" and "crimes against humanity", deserves international scrutiny. Her wilful silence on the racially-motivated violence against a Muslim minority, that only makes up about 4 percent of the total population, has led to a growing chorus of international criticism. However, the details of this slow-burning genocide of the Rohingya which has been set in motion as a matter of state policy since 1978, and the more recent anti-Muslim mass violence, again with state impunity, generally play second fiddle in the media, to Suu Kyi's failure to condemn it. Media's silence The patterns of the systematic elimination of the Rohingya have been largely over-looked by the media over the decades. Even now, it is Suu Kyi, not the ethnic cleansing itself, that the media finds worthy of a headline. Since Myanmar's military rulers opened up the country - along the Chinese model of capitalism without democratisation - the media and international policy hype has been about Myanmar's emergence as one of the last remaining lucrative, virgin economic markets. Everything else is secondary to this narrative of Myanmar's Golden Promise. The Rohingya and other Burmese Muslims are confronted with threats to their very existence. They are already in a weak position as a very small minority, without leverage in the Burmese economy, polity or society. They pose no existential threat to the Buddhist way of life, national security or sovereignty. Still they are in deep trouble, not only because the country's "Mother Suu" has, in effect, chosen to side with their societal oppressor, namely well-organised, anti-Muslim racists, at every level of society, but also because governments such as the US and the UK have chosen, out of their own strategic needs and commercial pursuits, to embrace the military leadership that has reportedly backed the Islamophobic perpetrators and hate-preachers. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (c) 2017 Aljazeera

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s presidential and parliamentary vote went ahead on 28-30 November, after a campaign marred by violence and amid allegations of rigging and mismanagement. Political rallies were banned in the wake of election-related clashes in Kinshasa on the eve of polls, and sporadic reports of violence emerged, including from Lubumbashi and West Kasai, during voting. Four opposition candidates have already called for results to be invalidated, aggravating fears that violence may escalate as results come in – especially if the presidential contest is close. CrisisWatch identifies a conflict risk alert for the Democratic Republic of Congo for December. Trends and Outlook In Burundi state troops clashed with the recently formed Forces for the Restoration of Democracy; the government reported 18 rebels killed. A civil society coalition group claimed 300 National Liberation Forces (FNL) members had been killed since July by government-backed death squads. Signs of media repression increased. Relations between Sudan and South Sudan deteriorated further this month. On 9 November the Sudanese Armed Forces reportedly launched cross-border airstrikes on Maban County in South Sudan’s Upper Nile State, and a day later bombed Yida refugee camp in Unity state, killing 12. Late-month negotiations between the two sides failed to achieve a settlement on contentious oil and transitional financial arrangements. Both Sudan and South Sudan also grappled with internal instability. In Sudan, government forces repeatedly clashed with rebels in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. In South Sudan, South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) rebels continued to attack towns in Unity State, and rebel leader George Athor vowed to continue attacks in Jonglei after negotiations with President Kiir failed. In Syria violence continued, with the regime’s brutal crackdown ongoing, elements of the protest movement increasingly militarised, the conflict internationalised and the Arab League’s attempt to end the bloodshed running aground. A United Nations report accused President Bashar Assad’s regime of crimes against humanity in its eight-month repression of anti-regime protests, which it says has left at least 3,500 people dead. Assad looked increasingly isolated as his refusal to implement measures agreed with the Arab League led the League to suspend Syria and introduce economic sanctions. CrisisWatch identifies a conflict risk alert for Syria amid signs that violence may escalate in the coming month. NATO airstrikes on two Pakistan military border outposts left 24 Pakistani soldiers dead and U.S.-Pakistani relations in tatters. Islamabad swiftly condemned the attacks, requesting NATO vacate its airbase in Balochistan and shutting down its supply routes. The incident also damaged already strained Pakistani relations with Afghanistan, with the Pakistani government threatening to boycott forthcoming Bonn talks on Afghanistan. Tensions continued to rise in Kosovo. Late month violence in the north between international KFOR troops and ethnic Serbs who are barricading customs gates with Serbia left dozens injured. Earlier in the month three ethnic Serbs including a Kosovo Police officer were wounded, one fatally, in a clash with ethnic Albanians in North Mitrovica. Myanmar saw further positive developments this month. The announcement by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD party that they will contest seats in forthcoming by-elections marked their return to the political process. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s arrival in Myanmar at the end of the month – the first such visit for over 50 years – capped a flurry of other diplomatic visits. On 18 November, ASEAN leaders confirmed that Myanmar will chair the group in 2014. On 1 November leaders of Nepal’s four main political parties signed a landmark deal to integrate one third of former Maoist rebels into the national army and give others financial rehabilitation packages, removing a major stumbling block to the drafting of a new constitution. Morocco held the first elections under its new constitution, approved by referendum in July, which devolved some power from the monarch. The moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) won 107 of the 395 seats in parliament. King Mohamed VI appointed as new prime minister the party’s secretary general Abdelilah Benkirane, who will now hold talks on forming a coalition government. Following the official announcement of last months’ historic election results, Tunisia’s new Constituent Assembly held its first session on 22 November. The main parties quickly agreed to form a new government, with Hamadi Jebali, the leader of the moderate Islamist An-Nahda party which took over 41% of the vote, assuming the post of prime minister. The first stage of parliamentary elections in Egypt took place at the end of November. The polls, the first since President Hosni Mubarak was toppled in February, were mostly peaceful despite deadly protests earlier in the month against the interim military leaders who replaced Mubarak. At least 41 people were killed and over 2,000 injured in clashes between security forces and activists. Crisiswatch maintains a close watching brief on developments in that country. Latest Updates Africa Burundi Troops 21 Nov clashed with recently-formed Forces for the Restoration of Democracy (FRD-Abanyagihugu) in Cancuzo; govt said 18 rebels killed. Civil society coalition Government Action Observatory 22 Nov said govt-backed death squads covertly killed over 300 FNL members since July. Reporters Without Borders 16 Nov called on govt to halt intimidation campaign after 9 radio journalists repeatedly summoned to prosecutor’s office early Nov over allegations of endangering public order related to Sept Gatumba massacre reportage; radio reporter arrested 28 Nov for allegedly helping FRD-Abanyagihugu. Cameroon Security forces early-Nov arrested Cameroonian People’s Liberation Army leader Rev Bertin Kisob, suspected of ordering 9 Oct killing of 2 gendarmes in Bakassi Peninsula and 29 Sept attack on Douala bridge. National anti-corruption commission 13 Nov issued report accusing several ministries of mismanagement, embezzlement. UNSG Ban praised Cameroon, Nigeria for implementation of ICJ ruling on Bakassi peninsula border dispute. Central African Republic Gunmen 9 Nov killed 2 soldiers in attack on Ubangui river 30km SW of Bangui. Police tried to evict traders in Bangui 15 Nov; fighting left 2 dead, 6 wounded. Chadian rebels under Baba Laddé reported 19 Nov forcefully recruiting, raiding cattle near Bambari. Border with Cameroon closed for 3 days 24 Nov when govt troops opened fire in clash with policeman and Cameroonian military rapid intervention force. Democratic Republic of Congo Fears violence will escalate following 28-30 presidential elections marred by disorganisation, allegations of fraud and violence, and subsequent call by 4 opposition candidates for results to be invalidated. SADC, AU observers 30 Nov said polls success, no basis for annulment. Political rallies banned 26 Nov following violence in Kinshasa; police 28 Nov fired tear gas on crowd gathered at Kinshasa polling station. 7 killed 28 Nov in 2 separate clashes in Lubumbashi and West Kasai, SE. Opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) leader Tshisekedi 7 Nov proclaimed himself president, told followers to jailbreak political prisoners, provoking national, international condemnation. Opposition Movement for the Liberation of the Congo (MLC) candidate Marcus Gangale shot dead 22 Nov in Kinshasa. UNSC 29 Nov added Mai Mai Shka leader and parliamentary candidate Ntabo Sheka to UN sanctions list. UN Joint Human Rights Office report 9 Nov documented 188 rights violations Nov 2010 -Sept 2011, most involving police or National Intelligence Services. Rwanda Dutch Ambassador 14 Nov, provided Rwandan prosecutor with documents to be used in trial of opposition United Democratic Forces (UDF)-INKINGI leader Victoire Ingabire; UDF-INKINGI 16 Nov protested in Brussels, denounced “political” trial. Eritrea Govt 2 Nov denied reports it supplied weapons to Somalia’s al-Shabaab; 21 Nov complained to UNSC over Kenyan allegations it sent weapons, called for independent investigation, urged UN take action (see Kenya). Ethiopia IGAD 25 Nov said Ethiopia had agreed to back efforts to defeat Somalia’s al-Shabaab; heavily armed troop convoys reported crossing into Somalia. 25 people, including senior Unite for Democracy and Justice Party politicians and 6 journalists, charged 10 Nov with terrorism; Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International 21 Nov called on govt to stop using anti-terrorism laws to stifle dissent. Teacher died after 11 Nov self-immolation at public meeting to protest repression. Court 3 Nov dropped participating in terrorism charges against 2 Swedish journalists; still charged with supporting terrorist group, entering Ethiopia illegally. Kenya Series of al-Shabaab retaliatory attacks in northern border region. 2 killed, 3 injured 5 Nov in grenade attack on church in Garissa town, bomb planted at power transformer in central Garissa failed to detonate; attack blamed on al-Shabaab sympathizer. Al-Shabaab 6 Nov attacked police camp in Mandera district, left 1 dead; bomb targeting police exploded 15 Nov at Dadaab refugee camp wounding 4. UN aid convoy 5 Nov struck landmine which failed to detonate in Dadaab camp. Garissa leaders 19 Nov accused military of excessive force to flush out suspected al-Shabaab. Police 13 Nov reported 30 Kenya-based al-Shabaab militants accepted police amnesty; 26 Nov arrested 5 suspected al-Shabaab fighters in Lamu, 29 Nov arrested 4 suspects in Kiunga. Govt 1 Nov claimed aircraft delivering weapons to al-Shabaab landed in Baidoa, southern Somalia; FM Wetangula suggested arms supplied by Eritrea; govt 27 Nov filed case before UNSC sanctions committee calling for investigation, sparking diplomatic row. Series of public worker strikes mid-Nov over cost of Somalia military operation, low wages. Sudan 29 Nov expelled Kenya’s ambassador to Khartoum, day after Kenya court ruling ordered execution of ICC arrest warrant for Sudan President Bashir if he enters Kenya; Nairobi called ruling “unhelpful”, plans to appeal. Supreme Court 15 Nov refused to rule on date for elections, prompting increased concern over govt attempt to amend polling timeline. Somalia At least 2 killed 8 Nov in Mogadishu grenade attack as al-Shabaab warned of increased assaults, claimed to have killed 15 govt soldiers in separate attacks. Al-Shabaab 2 Nov claimed 10 Kenyan soldiers killed in ambush on convoy near Dhobley; Kenya denied. At least 6 soldiers killed 12 Nov in grenade attack in Mogadishu’s Dharkenley district; landmine 12 Nov killed at least 9 al-Shabaab fighters in Bula Burde district, Hiran. Transitional Federal Govt (TFG), al-Shabaab 15 Nov both claimed victory in clashes in Hawin town, south. Kenyan troops backed by warships 20 Nov destroyed 2 al-Shabaab training camps in Badade district, Lower Juba. 10 killed by roadside bomb in Wagajir, Mogadishu 22 Nov; at least 7 killed 28 Nov in bomb attack on Mogadishu hospital. Suicide bomber killed 4 in 30 Nov attack on Mogadishu army headquarters. TFG President Sharif 16 Nov met with Kenyan, Ugandan counterparts, agreed to coordinated approach. Ethiopian troops 26 Nov reportedly reached Hiran. 3 al-Shabaab leaders, including former head of Union of Islamic Courts Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys targeted 13 Nov in missile strike on camp in Afgoye, U.S. denied involvement; 17 killed, 67 wounded 15 Nov in reported drone strike in Dhobley. Head of UN OCHA in Mogadishu 17 Nov said looting of aid major problem; 1 killed 11 Nov when soldiers fired on crowd at Mogadishu food distribution point; 6 killed, 25 wounded 17 Nov when govt forces reportedly opened fire, aid in Mogadishu camp. Al-Shabaab 28 Nov banned 16 aid groups, stole UN agencies from territory. Somaliland 2 police officers killed 3 Nov in clash with gunmen in Erigavo town, Sanaag, area claimed by both Somaliland and Puntland. Puntland govt 9 Nov accused Somaliland security forces of killing 4, wounding 13 in Erigavo district, Sanaag 5-6 Nov. South Sudan North-South relations further deteriorated when Sudanese Armed Forces reportedly launched cross-border air-strikes on Maban County, Upper Nile State, and 10 Nov bombed  Yida refugee camp, Unity state, killing 12; Khartoum denied. Negotiations with Sudan 25-30 Nov made no progress on oil and outstanding issues (See Sudan). Clashes between South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) rebels and govt forces continued. SSLA 24 Nov claimed govt soldiers and officer captured, urged civilians and aid workers to evacuate Mayom, Unity State, ahead of planned attack. Militia with suspected ties to rebel George Athor 16 Nov attacked 3 villages in Jonglei killing 4; Athor 20 Nov said further violence likely after talks with President Kiir failed. 2 journalists released 19 Nov after 2 week illegal detention by security forces allegedly for publishing article criticising marriage of President Kiir’s daughter to Ethiopian national. Sudan Increased tension with S Sudan after SAF airstrikes in Upper Nile State and on Yida refugee camp, Unity State (see South Sudan); govt denies. Defence Minister Hussein 13 Nov claimed SAF seized heavy armoury belonging to S Sudan during clashes with SPLM-N in Blue Nile, S Kordofan; accused S Sudan of attempting to destabilise country. Govt 5 Nov lodged complaint with UNSC detailing alleged S Sudan support for rebels in S Kordofan, Blue Nile. Rebel JEM 23 Nov denied reports that S Sudan aiding leader Khalil Ibrahim. Talks between Khartoum and Juba reconvened 25 Nov; failed to reach agreement on critical issues of oil and financial arrangements. Petroleum Minister Ali Ahmed Osman 28 Nov announced S Sudan oil exports blocked until transit fee agreed; Foreign Ministry 29 Nov denied decision, following criticism by China. Clashes between SAF and rebels continued in S Kordofan, Blue Nile; SAF 3 Nov captured rebel stronghold Kurmuk, 22 Nov announced capture of Deim Mansour, Blue Nile. Amnesty International 12 Nov accused govt of arresting over 100 opposition activists, torturing many. Attack on Darfur peacekeepers near Nyala 8 Nov killed 1, wounded 2. Khartoum expelled Kenyan ambassador 29 Nov amid diplomatic row (see Kenya). Request to join EAC rejected 30 Nov due to objections over lack of democracy, women’s rights. Uganda Amnesty International 1 Nov documented increased govt harassment, repression of critics; govt denied. Opposition leader Besigye’s supporters, bodyguards 1 Nov fought crowd at his home where he is under house arrest; party officials said mob hired by local police. Parliament 9 Nov discussed motion to suspend PM and internal affairs being investigated for corruption; Attorney Gen Nyombi 22 Nov said Parliament cannot force them to leave. Madagascar New PM Omer Beriziky 2 Nov took office as part of Sept political roadmap. Opposition 21 Nov split over new unity govt as 3 of 5 opposition party members rejected cabinet posts; 23 Nov accepted participation in govt, requested further SADC intervention in govt composition. Former President Ratsikara 24 Nov returned after 9 year exile. Zimbabwe Police 1 Nov allegedly fired tear gas into PM Tsvangirai’s MDC Harare HQ, blocked off building, attacked nearby street vendors; Tsvangirai 2 Nov expressed concern at rising political violence, accused police of being partisan. Tsvangirai 7 Nov blamed Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri for not intervening to protect MDC supporters from ZANU-PF attackers at 6 Nov rally in Chitungwiza, near Harare; Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) co-chair 9 Nov said investigating incident. Côte d’Ivoire Former President Gbagbo transferred to ICC 29 Nov to face 4 counts of crimes against humanity. 2 killed 3 Nov in clashes between opposing ethnic groups in Pelezi and Bahe Sebon towns in West. 1 killed, 11 wounded 9 Nov in clash between Dozo traditional hunters supporting President Ouattara and Gouro ethnic group members. UN SRSG Bert Koenders 16 Nov said security, logistical challenges remain ahead of 11 Dec polls. Parliamentary vote list closed 21 Nov: 4 parties supporting Gbagbo put forward 20 candidates; Gbagbo’s Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) continued boycott, said some former members had registered as independents. Govt 23 Nov announced deployment of 25,000 security forces ahead of polls. Appeal court 9 Nov released 12 Gbagbo aides; 45 remain in jail. Gambia President Jammeh secured 4th 5-year term in 24 Nov election with 72% of votes, extending 17-year rule. Opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) rejected results; AU, Commonwealth observers hailed poll as transparent; ECOWAS declined to send observers, citing control of media, voter intimidation. 3 killed 22 Nov in Banjul clashes between Jammeh supporters and UDP demonstrators. Guinea President Condé 15 Nov met opposition leaders, agreed to set up ad hoc commission to guide poll preparation, mentioned possible election postponement; overall little progress on dialogue following opposition’s creation of common front, reiteration of demands 22 Nov. Condé 17 Nov pardoned protesters condemned for participation in 27 Sept demonstration. Guinea Bar Association (GBA) filed complaint against Conakry governor Sékou Camara after 3 Nov arrest of president of rights NGO Foromo Frédéric Loua. Camara appeared in court 16 Nov following demonstration by GBA, 30 Nov declared guilty, fined. Govt 8 Nov issued decree banning all political demonstrations without prior official permission; 12 Nov revoked decree, allowing GBA march to go ahead. Guinea-Bissau UNSG Ban 3 Nov presented G-B periodical review to UNSC, insisted steps must be taken on SSR and impunity. Following Social Renewal Party’s Oct announcement of boycott of Jan National Peace and Reconciliation Conference, Republican Party for Independence and Development 26 Nov also announced intention to boycott. Govt 3 Nov said it was considering signing ICC Statute in attempt to open way for international investigation of recent criminal cases. Angolan FM Manuel Augusto 8 Nov said Angola’s military assistance mission in Guinea-Bissau (MISSANG/ GB) will stay for as long as needed; President Dos Santos 17 Nov admitted difficulties with ECOWAS regarding support for SSR in G-B. At late Nov meeting of Community of Portuguese language countries (CPLP) defence ministers in Cape Verde, G-B Defence Minister called for more financial support to SSR. Liberia President Johnson-Sirleaf secured second 6-year term in 8 Nov run-off election with 90% of votes; turnout only 38%, vote boycotted by main opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC). At least 2 killed, several injured during clashes between CDC supporters and police on eve of election; Johnson-Sirleaf 14 Nov announced investigation into violence; national police chief sacked 26 Nov. Govt order to close 3 media outlets for broadcasting hate messages overturned 15 Nov by court. CDC leader Tubman 11 Nov said willing to work with President but 12 Nov called for annulment of election results, fresh elections. Unauthorised march by CDC supporters took place 21 Nov without violence despite govt warning and declaration by CDC chairperson Doe-Sheriff that protest not approved by party; Doe-Sheriff and 4 other CDC officials expelled from party 27 Nov, Doe-Sheriff home hit by petrol bombs 29 Nov. U.S. Congressmen Christopher Smith and Jesse Jackson 19-20 Nov warned of possible sanctions against political leaders seeking to undermine peace process; head of Reconciliation Commission Leymah Gboweeh 24 Nov criticised move. Mali Army Chief Pousiougou 21 Nov insisted on need for joint Mali, Algeria, Mauritania and Niger action against Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) at meeting of country chiefs of staff. EU aid commissioner Piebalgs 23 Nov promised govt €62mn aid to improve security in north. 2 French citizens abducted 24 Nov by suspected AQIM gunmen in Hombori, first such kidnapping south of Niger river; 3 tourists kidnapped, 1 killed 25 Nov in Timbuktu. Niger At least 13 killed in 6 Nov clash between govt troops and armed group including Malian Tuaregs travelling from Libya to Mali; authorities claimed assault rifles, automatic weapons, RPGs recovered from group. Nigeria Over 150 people killed in series of attacks across Borno and Yobe states 4 Nov in Boko Haram’s most deadly operation since 2009; targeted churches, Yobe security services HQ. Further bomb attacks 26-27 Nov protesting arrest of sect members killed 4 policemen in Geidam, Yobe, also targeted churches, commerce, local govt. Police inspector killed 6 Nov by Boko Haram in Maiduguri, Borno. Media reported group recruiting students, minors after 8 youths arrested in north. People’s Democratic Party Borno senator Ali Ndume charged 22 Nov with connections to Boko Haram following 3 Nov arrest of group spokesman Konduga; president of Civil Rights Congress Shehu Sani said arrest political ploy to justify govt spending on State Security Service, Kondunga no longer Boko Haram member. Boko Haram 15 Nov bombed convoy of Borno state governor Shettima in Maiduguri, day after Defence Minister Bello Mohammed claimed new security measures would end group’s activities. Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa 24 Nov said group had links with al-Qaeda; Algerian FM 13 Nov said intelligence reports show coordination between group and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. At least 45 killed in Plateau State in Fulani herdsmen attacks over alleged cattle theft. Senegal Separatist rebels 21 Nov killed 10 civilians in Casamance. President Wade 9 Nov offered opposition rivals Dieng and Niasse cabinet positions in exchange for cooperation in Feb 2012 elections; both rejected offer. Asia Korean Peninsula ROK 23 Nov conducted large air and sea drills near Yŏnp’yŏng Island, attacked by DPRK Nov 2010; DPRK Supreme Command 24 Nov threatened to turn Seoul’s presidential palace into “sea of fire”. ROK taking some steps to improve inter-Korean relations: approved resumption of medical assistance to North via WHO, delivered children’s vaccines to North, announced suspension of balloon-drops of propaganda leaflets; unification minister Yu U-ik 5 Nov told UNSG Ban Seoul would consider resumption of humanitarian aid through UN. U.S. expressed concern after DPRK 10 Nov announced it would soon start operating new nuclear reactor. Foreign Ministry 30 Nov said DPRK making rapid progress on work to enrich uranium and build light-water nuclear power plant. ROK’s top nuclear envoy 15 Nov held talks with new U.S. envoy Glyn Davies in Vienna to discuss efforts to re-open 6-party talks; Seoul, Japan and U.S. demanding Pyongyang suspend uranium enrichment before talks can resume. Media mid-Nov reported DPRK conducting missile engine static tests, tested new anti-ship missile; has assisted Iran in developing nuclear bomb. Taiwan Strait During first ministerial-level official visit to China by Taiwanese delegation 23 Nov, led by chairman of Financial Supervisory Commission, officials reached agreement on banking issues. Afghanistan Setback for forthcoming Bonn talks on Afghanistan as Pakistan threatened to boycott after NATO/ISAF airstrikes (see Pakistan); attacks marked further deterioration in Afghan and U.S relations with Pakistan. Over 2,000 political elite attended loya jirga 16-20 Nov to discuss support for proposed U.S.-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership, negotiations with Taliban; meeting derided by Northern Alliance-dominated opposition and Taliban. Delegates 20 Nov endorsed negotiation of long-term security pact with U.S.; hundreds protested in streets 20 Nov against pact. Suspected suicide bomber shot dead, 2 arrested 14 Nov near site of loya jirga, hours after Taliban claimed to have published secret security plan for meeting, threatened to target participants. Deputy commander of NATO Training Mission resigned 4 Nov following comment that Afghan leaders “isolated from reality”. President Karzai 12 Nov met with Pakistani counterpart as part of ongoing efforts to repair relations. Suicide bomber targeting local tribal elder killed 7, wounded 15 in Baghlan province 6 Nov; roadside bomb 6 Nov killed district police chief and 2 bodyguards in Helmand province. At least 11 killed 7 Nov by roadside bomb in Badghis, NW. 12 personnel killed, 9 injured in Taliban attack on security firm in Farah province. 7 civilians including 6 children killed 23 Nov in NATO airstrike, and at least 10 Taliban militants reportedly killed 28 Nov in joint Afghan-NATO military operation in Kandahar. 3 policemen killed 30 Nov by roadside bomb in Baghlan; 7 Pakistani workers kidnapped 30 Nov near Kabul. Bangladesh Trial began 20 Nov of Delwar Sayedee, lead Jamaat-e-Islami politician, marking first trial for war crimes during 1971 war; similar charges filed 14 Nov against senior opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Chowdhury. Court 15 Nov charged rebel United Liberation Front of Assam military wing leader Paresh Baruah and 10 others including 2 former BNP govt ministers and 2 former senior intelligence officials with involvement in 2004 arms haul. India (non-Kashmir) Govt said senior Maoist rebel Koteshwar Rao killed 24 Nov in gunfight in W Midnapore; Communist Party leader Gurudas Dasgupta and rights group said Rao assassinated. Suicide bomber died 30 Nov in Manipur blast, Kangleipak Communist Party militants suspected. Court 9 Nov convicted 31 people of killing dozens of Muslims during 2002 Gujarat riots, sentenced to life prison. Kashmir Dispute between Kashmir state govt and army over partial revocation of Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which gives army wide law-enforcement powers and shields soldiers from prosecution, continued; India Kashmir chief minister Abdullah 2 Nov said he will consult with army, top ministers before making decision. Hurriyat Conference chairman Geelani 17 Nov said India showing “traditional inflexibility” over revocation of AFSPA. Several injured 7 Nov in clashes between police and demonstrators in Anantnag and Sopore. Following protests and police intervention, Army 22 Nov released 3 civilians arrested during crackdown in Anantnag district. Strike 25 Nov to protest continued detention and torture of political prisoners, minors, resulted in clashes in Srinagar and Maraj. Nepal Leaders of 4 main parties 1 Nov agreed to integrate one third of former Maoist rebels into army, give money to others, removing major stumbling block to constitution writing. Constituent Assembly term extended 29 Nov; state restructuring commission formed, though decisions expected to be politically motivated. Supreme Court 23 Nov opposed Cabinet recommendation for pardon for Maoist MP Bal Krishna Dhungel. 22 Nov bomb attack on Christian NGO United Mission to Nepal and 28 Nov bomb attempt on Kathmandu church by Hindu fundamentalist group sparked fears for security of religious minorities. Pakistan Pakistan-U.S. relations severely damaged by NATO/ ISAF attack on 2 Pakistan military border outposts 26 Nov that killed 24 soldiers; govt condemned attack, protested use of Afghan base, shut down key NATO supply routes, asked NATO to vacate airbase in Balochistan, 29 Nov decided to boycott 5 Dec Bonn conference. Attack prompted protests 28 Nov; director general of military operations 30 Nov said attack deliberate, blatant act of aggression. Ambassador to U.S. Haqqani 22 Nov resigned after alleged involvement in memo accusing Pakistani military of plotting coup in May; denies involvement. N Waziristan-based militant commander Hafiz Gul Bahdur 12 Nov threatened to abandon 2007 unofficial peace deal with military, citing drone strikes and Pakistani army shelling, prompting fears of escalated violence in region. Drone strike on suspected militant base in Waziristan near Afghan border 16 Nov reportedly killed at least 16; 7 killed 17 Nov in drone strike in Shawal valley, N Waziristan. Senior Pakistani Taliban commander 21 Nov said group declared ceasefire, halted attacks around country in support of govt peace talks; refuted by Taliban spokesman 23 Nov. At least 14 soldiers killed, 10 injured 21 Nov in ambush by separatist rebels in Balochistan. Attack on police station 23 Nov killed 2, wounded 7 in Darbaan Kalan near sectarian flashpoint Dera Ismail Kahn. Over 19 militants reportedly killed 23 Nov in Central Kurram Agency in govt helicopter attack on hideouts; over 90 reportedly killed in preceding days. Antiterrorism court 5 Nov indicted 5 militants, 2 police in 2007 assassination of PM Bhutto. PM Gilani 11 Nov met with Afghanistan President Karzai, agreed to cooperate further on regional security and stability, but peace prospects undermined by NATO/ISAF attack. Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa 20 Nov received final report of govt’s Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission, promised eventual publication. Sec Defence Gotabaya Rajapaksa 24 Nov announced unpublished govt count of civilian dead in final months of civil war, claiming very few killed by govt forces; acknowledged for first time some soldiers may have committed crimes, promised investigation. Former army chief and presidential candidate Sarath Fonseka, in prison following two courts martial convictions, sentenced 18 Nov to additional 3 years for making “false statement” that Sec Defence Rajapaksa ordered May 2009 execution of surrendering LTTE leaders. UN committee against torture 25 Nov published conclusions expressing concern over “consistent allegations of widespread use of torture” and “prevailing climate of impunity”. Govt 5 Nov announced new regulations requiring all news website to register; followed action blocking widely-read websites critical of govt. Indonesia Violence continued in Papua. President Yudhoyono 9 Nov installed head of long-awaited Papua policy unit UP4B; said open to dialogue if Papuans accept republic of Indonesia special autonomy as defined in 2001 law, and focus on accelerated development. Large pro-independence march in Jayapura 14 Nov. Continued violence along road leading to Freeport mine in Timika, with 7 deaths in 8 shooting incidents targeting soldiers, police and Freeport contractors since 14 Oct. Strike by miners entered 3rd month, amid major sabotage of mine pipeline in full view of unresponsive police. Aceh elections scheduled for 10 Nov postponed until 16 Feb 2012; Partai Aceh still planning to boycott polls. Several more members of Darul Islam faction Abu Umar group arrested 12-15 Nov, involved in smuggling arms from Mindanao. Brief flare-up of violence in Ambon, with explosion of small pipe bomb 19 Nov, and several police posts attacked 20 Nov after funeral of man reportedly tortured to death in police custody. Ongoing local disputes between palm plantations and local farmers in West Sumatra and Lampung, where 1 resident killed 10 Nov by police gunfire. Myanmar Major political development marked by return of Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) to political process, decision by ASSK and other NLD leaders to contest seats in upcoming by-elections; 18 Nov confirmation that Myanmar to chair ASEAN in 2014 also reflection of positive changes in recent months, amid hopes it will drive further reform. Flurry of diplomatic visits to Myanmar, including U.S. Myanmar envoy Derek Mitchell in 3rd visit 2-4 Nov, UN Special Envoy Vijay Nambiar, Norwegian and UK development ministers, German Deputy FM. U.S. Sec State Clinton commenced visit to Myanmar 30 Nov, first such visit for over 50 years; UNSG Ban announced intention to visit as soon as possible. Chinese VP Xi Jinping 28 Nov called for increased military ties. President Thein Sein 4 Nov signed amendments to political party registration law, addressing concerns of opposition NLD. NLD 18 Nov announced intention to register as legal political party, submitted application 25 Nov. Parliament 24 Nov passed bill allowing peaceful protests. Situation surrounding ethnic conflict remains tense, however some progress in president’s peace initiative. Karen armed group Kloh Htoo Baw 3 Nov announced it had signed ceasefire with govt. Series of meetings in Thailand between presidential envoy and several armed groups; Shan State Army-South 19 Nov said agreement on ceasefire reached, said envoy conveyed commitment to holding national conference on political solutions to ethnic divisions. Some other armed groups agreed to sign ceasefires in near future. Fighting continued in Kachin areas between KIO, govt forces. KIO delegation met with presidential envoy, held further talks in China 29 Nov. Philippines Govt and MILF 3 Nov held one-day session in Kuala Lampur, in first meeting since MILF rejected govt draft proposal in Aug. No joint statement, but sides committed to meeting again soon, tentatively in early Dec. Clashes between military and MILF in Basilan and Zamboanga Sibugay in Oct being investigated by Malaysian-led international monitoring team. 3 Nov clash left at least 2 MILF members dead, 3 govt militiamen injured in Tulunan town, North Cotabato. Breakaway MILF commander Kato rumoured to have suffered a stroke 24 Nov; conflicting reports as to whether he is alive. Govt troops 6 Nov clashed with suspected NPA rebels in south, 1 soldier dead, 4 wounded; 6 soldiers wounded 7 Nov by suspected Abu Sayyaf landmine in Basilan. Tensions with China over disputed Spratly Islands in South China Sea increased as Philippines promoted plan for oil, gas exploration in region. U.S. Sec State Clinton 15-16 Nov visited Philippines prior to East Asia Summit, declared commitment to rules-based approach to resolving competing maritime claims, freedom of navigation; pledged to provide second warship to Philippines navy. Timor-Leste Parliament 25 Nov passed $1.7bn 2012 budget, almost half intended for Infrastructure Fund in line with strategic development plan; state budget has increased 381% over 4 years. Hopes for quick ASEAN accession dimmed 17 Nov with announcement that ASEAN FMs had agreed to refer issue to new working group to examine country’s readiness. Thailand Death toll from recent flooding reached 666 people; cabinet 8 Nov approved 2 committees for post-flood recovery. Cabinet 15 Nov held secret discussion on draft royal decree to give pardons for some prisoners for King’s birthday; move seen to benefit former PM Thaksin, sentenced in absentia to 2 years prison for corruption; Justice Minister 20 Nov denied possibility of pardon for exiled leader. Implementation of ICJ’s July order for Thailand and Cambodia to withdraw troops from disputed border area delayed by flooding and legal debate over need for parliamentary approval. In south, suspected insurgents in uniform 17 Nov opened fire at military-escorted convoy of govt school teachers in Ruesoh district, Narathiwat, injuring 4. 21 Nov bomb in Pattani’s Muang district injured 9 people. Europe & Central Asia Albania Adoption of cross-party consensus in Parliament 17 Nov as lawmakers approved creation of parliamentary commission for electoral reform and passed 2 laws. Followed agreement by ruling DP party and opposition SP 15 Nov on pact addressing major European Commission progress priorities. Move welcomed by EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele as bringing end to 2-year political stalemate, however several issues remain unresolved. Follows Oct European Commission assessment that Albania failed to meet political criteria needed to attain EU candidate status. Bosnia And Herzegovina 13 months after general elections, leaders of 6 main parties again failed to agree on formation of state govt at 17 Nov meeting in Sarajevo and 27 Nov constitutional reform meeting in Italy; main obstacle still dispute between Federation of BiH parties over seats in Council of Ministers. Republika Srpska president Dodik called for future constitution to include mechanism for “peaceful disassociation”. Prospects of meeting Dec deadline to adopt key laws and reforms for progress on EU membership deemed increasingly unlikely, while failure to adopt budget and fiscal framework raising concerns. High Representative Valentin Inzko 15 Nov told UNSC country stagnating due to failure to form govt, adopt budget. 3 more arrests following 28 Oct attack on U.S. embassy. Kosovo Increasing fears over tensions and outbreaks of violence in north Kosovo, as Serbs continue to barricade customs gates with Serbia against Kosovo customs officials. 1 Serb shot dead, 2 wounded including 1 Kosovo Police officer, in clash between ethnic Serbs and Albanians in Brdjani, N Mitrovica 9 Nov. KFOR troops 9 Nov used tear gas against 2 trucks trying to drive into checkpoint near Jarinje, 23 Nov clashed with hundreds of Serbs after attempt to dismantle Serb roadblock in Rudare; 21 KFOR soldiers injured before withdrawing, along with unknown number of Serbs. Dozens of Serbs injured 28 Nov as Serbs tried to prevent KFOR dismantling barricade at Jagnjenica; 25 KFOR troops also injured, including 2 by small-arms fire. KFOR commander Gen Erhard Drews 26 Nov warned over possible escalation of violence. Serbian President Tadic 29 Nov called on Serbs to leave barricades. Serbian interior minister Ivica Dacic 24 Nov said Serbia should be ready for war over north, drawing condemnation from EU, Pristina. Belgrade 18 Nov adopted decree putting in force civil registry agreement agreed in Pristina-Belgrade dialogue. EU-facilitated talks aimed at normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina resumed at 7th round 21-22 Nov after 2-month hiatus. Sides agreed to accept each other’s higher education qualifications and agreed to return to issue of Kosovo’s participation in regional fora at next meeting. No deal on EU-proposed compromise solution for control of Kosovo-Serbia border. 8th round opened 30 Nov. Armenia Ahead of May 2012 parliamentary elections and 2013 presidential elections, former president Kocharian indicated possible intent to return to politics. Parliament 1 Nov approved increase in 2012 military budget to $400mn. Armenia signed cooperation plan with Collective Security Treaty Organisation to promote military ties. Armenian and Turkish business leaders meeting in Yeveran 22 Nov called for opening of border. Azerbaijan Parliament 15 Nov passed amendments to criminal and administrative codes increasing state controls on religious activity, including on distribution of unsanctioned religious literature, “forced” religious activity, religious rituals. Amnesty International 16 Nov called for international community pressure on govt over crackdown on activists, opposition figures. Police arrested 5 activists in small protest 15 Nov. Prominent journalist Rafiq Tagi stabbed by unknown attacker 19 Nov, died of injuries. Georgia Flaring tensions in breakaway republic South Ossetia after its Supreme Court 29 Nov annulled 27 Nov second round vote for de facto president, in which opposition candidate Alla Dzhioeva took surprise lead over Kremlin-backed Anatoly Bibilov in unofficial results, citing electoral violations. Parliament barred Dzhioeva from running in rescheduled elections March 2012. Dzhioeva supporters challenged legality of court ruling, hundreds protested outside Central Election Commission 30 Nov; security personnel fired shots into air. Following Georgian and Russian acceptance of proposal unblocking Russia’s entry into WTO, sides signed agreement 9 Nov. In largely symbolic victory for Tbilisi, European Parliament 17 Nov adopted resolution on EU’s Association Agreement with Georgia, referring to Abkhazia and South Ossetia (SO) as “occupied”, calling on EU to formally recognise them as such, calling Russia “occupying force”. Billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, whose citizenship was revoked Oct following his announcement of intention to enter politics ahead of 2012 parliamentary elections, 1 Nov said he would appeal to President Saakashvili for restoration of citizenship. Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) Following deaths of 2 Armenian soldiers in separate clashes with Azerbaijani forces in N-K, Armenian military 21 Nov pledged to respond “disproportionately”; threatened “punitive actions”. Karabakh Defence Army accused Azerbaijan of violating ceasefire to sabotage diplomatic efforts to resolve conflict. Following failure of Russia-brokered June summit between Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents, Baku saying time to look at alternatives to 17-year old OSCE “Minsk Group” process. Armenian FM Minsk Group should remain key international body mediating N-K peace talks; comments follow Azerbaijan’s election to UNSC seat and reported intention to use membership to advance favourable solution to conflict. Russia/North Caucasus Several hundred people protested in Dagestan capital Makhachkala against enforced disappearances 21 Nov; over 2,000 protested 25 Nov. Numerous violent incidents in Dagestan, including 2 military killed and 3 injured, 1 fighter killed; 2 fighters killed in Kaspijsk town 1 Nov; head of Chuvek village killed 2 Nov; 1 fighter killed in Makhachkala 7 Nov; deputy Imam of Mutsaul shot dead by insurgents 12 Nov. Mass arrests of Salafi Muslims in Shamkhal village. FSB lifted counterterror restrictions in Kabardino-Balkaria’s Elbrus and Baksan districts, imposed Feb 2011. In Nalchik 3 militants killed 21 Nov, 2 police killed 14 Nov; 1 police killed in Tyrnyauz 13 Nov. 1 suspected militant killed in Ingushetia 19 Nov, 3 policeman wounded near Chechen border 2 Nov. Chechen businessman and poet shot dead in Moscow 15 Nov by unknown assailant. Warlord Doku Umarov 20 Nov posted online statement threatening Turkey with retaliation over Sept murder of 3 Chechens in Istanbul. Russian nationalists organized biggest “Russian March” protest rallies to mark 4 Nov Unity Day; several thousand joined anti-govt, anti-Caucasus protest in Moscow. Several hundred ethnic Russians also took part in marches in N Caucasus. Belarus Rights activist Ales Byalyatski jailed for 4.5 years 24 Nov for tax evasion. Opposition activist jailed for 10 days 3 Nov for participating in unsanctioned Oct rally. President Lukashenka signed economic union agreement with Russia and Kazakhstan; Russian president Putin 25 Nov said would cut price of Russian gas for Belarus, reportedly in exchange for full ownership of Belarusian gas transport network. UN Committee against Torture 25 Nov expressed concern over “allegations of widespread torture and ill-treatment of detainees”. Moldova Talks between Moldovan and Transdniestran officials, stalled for 5 years, re-opened in Lithuania 30 Nov, under auspices of OSCE; Russian, Ukrainian, U.S, EU officials also involved. Ukraine Prosecutors 11 Nov filed new charges against jailed former PM Tymoshenko, related to tax evasion, theft, concealing foreign currency. Russian and European leaders 8 Nov celebrated opening of Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, allowing transit of Russian gas directly to Western Europe, bypassing Ukraine and Belarus. Basque Country (Spain) Following Oct ceasefire declaration , ETA 10 Nov announced would be willing to discuss giving up weapons. Basque separatist party Amaiur won 7 parliamentary seats in 20 Nov general election. Cyprus UNSG Ban’s end-Oct talks with Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders described as “positive”, though leaders failed to announce any convergences, agreements. Ban said expects internal aspects of Cyprus problem to be solved by Jan, move to multilateral conference soon after. Greek Cypriot media 15 Nov reported leaders agreed to meet once or twice a week until Jan, UN also to hold talks with negotiating teams. Regional tensions over Cyprus’ gas exploration in East Mediterranean remain high: Turkish petroleum corporation (TPAO) 2 Nov signed oil field services and production agreement with Turkish Cypriot administration; Turkish energy minister 15 Nov announced TPAO would also sign deal with Shell to search for reserves off Antalya, said Turkey moving strategic weight from Black Sea to Mediterranean. U.S. firm conducting exploratory drilling off Cyprus coast reported field may yield 3-9 trillion cubic feet of gas, below previous estimates. Turkish PM Erdoğan 11 Nov announced Turkey will be able supply water to Turkish Cypriot north by March 2014; Deputy PM Atalay 15 Nov added Turkey ready to share water with Greek Cypriots following settlement. Turkey Ongoing military operations in SE against PKK militants. Scores arrested for suspected PKK-links throughout month, including 47 lawyers of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and members of pro-Kurdish BDP party. Kurdish militant killed by commandos 11 Nov after hijacking ferry with 18 passengers on Sea of Marmara. Turkish diplomatic missions in Syria attacked 12 Nov by pro-Assad crowds; President Gül 14 Nov called attacks unacceptable, warned of measures. Govt 15 Nov cancelled oil exploration plans with Syria in Mediterranean; threatened then pulled back from cutting off electricity supplies. 2 Turkish pilgrims reported injured 21 Nov by gunmen in northern Syria. PM Erdoğan 22 Nov called for Syrian President Assad to step down; 30 Nov announced sanctions on regime. 15 detained 22 Nov for suspected al-Qaeda links in central Anatolian city of Konya. Second earthquake 9 Nov struck southeastern city of Van , killed around 40, after more than 600 killed in 23 Oct earthquake. Kazakhstan Further concerns over security as terrorist attacks continued. Previously unknown Islamist group Jund al-Khilafah claimed responsibility for 31 Oct bombings in western city Atyrau; Atyrau prosecutor’s office 7 Nov announced detention of 3 Jund al-Khilafah members. 2 police officers shot dead 8 Nov in Almaty by unidentified assailants. Suspected Islamist 12 Nov killed 7 people, including 5 security forces, then shot himself in southern city Taraz. Jund al-Khilafah claimed responsibility; 6 suspected group members including leader arrested 30 Nov. U.S. embassy 18 Nov confirmed Peace Corps volunteers to leave country due to insecurity. President Nazarbaev 16 Nov dissolved lower house of parliament, called early parliamentary elections for mid Jan, after 53 out of 107 MPs called for body to be dissolved, replaced with multiparty legislature. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan 18 Nov signed economic union agreement in Moscow. Kyrgyzstan Central election committee 12 Nov officially declared former PM Atambaev winner of 30 Oct presidential election with 62.5% of vote. Despite threats by opponents Adakhan Madumarov and Kamchybek Tashiev to contest results, 2 Nov rallies in southern cities Jalal-Abad and Osh calling for new vote sparsely attended; Tashiev 4 Nov called on supporters to end protests. Outgoing President Otunbaeva 30 Nov apologised for failure to prevent 2010 deadly ethnic clashes. Fugitive ethnic Uzbek leader Kadyrjan Batyrov sentenced in absentia by Jalal-Abad court 28 Oct to life in prison on charges of separatist propaganda, inciting interethnic hatred, organising clashes between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz. Tajikistan Tensions with Russia rose after Tajik court 8 Nov sentenced 2 pilots working for Russian aviation company to 8.5 years prison for border violations, smuggling; Russian Foreign Ministry said verdict “politically charged”, warned it could harm relations. Russia 14 Nov announced possible ban on Tajik labor migrants in Russia and initiated round-up, deportations; 21 Nov threatened to impose sanctions on vegetable imports from Tajikistan. Tajik court released pilots 22 Nov. Tajik border guards 13 Nov killed Uzbek border guard; Tashkent accused Tajik guards of attempting to assist drug traffickers Uzbeks were trying to detain. Court in northern Sughd province 3 Nov sentenced 3 people to 8-9 years prison for membership in Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Supreme Court 11 Nov sentenced 28 people to jail, including 7 life sentences, for supporting IMU-affiliated terrorist group led by Abdullo Rahimov, killed in April. Turkmenistan German FM Guido Westerwelle 17 Nov visited Turkmenistan, met with President Burdymukhamedov, discussed political, economic issues, regional security, Afghanistan, rights. Gold-plated statue of former President Niyazov, removed in 2010, reinstalled 31 Oct on outskirts of Ashgabat. Uzbekistan 17 Nov explosion on railroad on Afghan border used by U.S. Northern Distribution Network, believed to be terrorist attack. Latin America & Caribbean Bolivia After 3 years of frozen diplomatic relations, Bolivia and U.S. 7 Nov agreed on framework document setting out principles for future relations; does not specify time frame for return of ambassadors; President Morales ruled out return of U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. Colombia Colombian military 4 Nov scored major victory against FARC, killing commander-in-chief Guillermo León Sáenz, alias “Alfonso Cano” in Cauca department. FARC refused govt’s call for guerrillas to demobilise, but indicated possibility of talks still open. FARC appointed Rodrigo Londoño alias “Timochenko”, known to be politically orthodox, as successor. President Santos 21 Nov said he trusted Venezuelan President Chávez to arrest FARC leader if found on Venezuelan soil. Santos 28 Nov met Chávez in Caracas, discussed FARC, trade issues (see Venezuela). Police 30 Nov arrested 3 FARC members believed involved in Sept kidnapping of Fortul mayor’s daughter. Bomb explosion in SE city Toribio 12 Nov injured 10, including mayor; FARC believed responsible. 4 police officers held hostage by FARC for over a decade killed by guerrilla 26 Nov during failed rescue attempt; 1 escaped. Ecuador Andean Community of Nations leaders met in Bogota 8 Nov, committed to revitalize organization, following Ecuador’s Oct threat to withdraw over trade dispute with Colombia. Following complaints over alleged violations of freedom of expression, Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IAHCR) 8 Nov asked attorney general’s office for information on libel case against El Universo newspaper; President Correa accused IACHR of abusing of its functions. Correa 10 Nov replaced 15 ministers in major cabinet reshuffle. Venezuela Capture of major Colombian drug trafficker Maximiliano Bonilla Orozco alias “Valenciano” 28 Nov preceded meeting between President Chávez and Colombian president Santos in Caracas. Presidents made new commitments on trade, energy; Chávez confirmed commitment to fight any illegal armed groups on Venezuelan territory. 6 candidates registered to participate in Feb 2012 primary presidential elections. In response to rising insecurity President Chávez mid-Nov placed thousands of National Guard troops onto streets of Caracas and 2 neighbouring states, Vargas and Miranda. Major league baseball player and Chilean Consul briefly kidnapped 9 and 11 Nov respectively. Guatemala Electoral tribunal declared retired general Otto Pérez Molina winner of 6 Nov presidential run-off with 53.74% of votes, ahead of businessman Manuel Baldizón with 46.6%. Outgoing president Álvaro Colom 15 Nov approved extradition of former president Alfonso Portillo to U. S. on money laundering charges. Haiti Increased political uncertainty as tensions continued in parliament over 27 Oct arrest of MP Arnel Bélizaire. Justice Minister Josué Pierre-Louis resigned 22 Nov; PM Conille and Interior Minister Thierry Mayard-Paul avoided confidence vote 23 Nov. Senator Moïse Jean-Charles demanded action be taken against President Martelly over case; Martelly denies involvement, 23 Nov wrote letter to Haitian people calling for peace and reconciliation. Martelly 18 Nov postponed publication of controversial decree to reinstate national army, announced creation of special commission to plan army reconstitution. Continued concerns over insecurity; National Coalition of Haitian Rights 15 Nov reported 98 killed, hundreds injured in gun violence since 1 Oct; victims include advisor to national palace, police officers. 7 injured by gunfire 28 Nov during violent demonstration in Cité Soleil calling for departure of city council head. Mexico Continued violence as 8 bodies found early Nov in Veracruz, 3 police officers killed 21 Nov near U.S. border, 50 suspected cartel members found dead 23-24 Nov in Culiacan, Guadalajara. In blow to govt anti-drug campaign Interior Secretary Francisco Blake Mora killed 11 Nov in helicopter accident, anti-violence activist Nepomuceno Moreno killed 28 Nov in Sonora. 2006 election runner-up Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced intention to present candidacy for July 2012 presidential poll. Governing party 13 Nov lost Michoacán gubernatorial election to Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) amid charges cartels used violence, intimidation to influence results. Govt reported several high-level cartel arrests, including 10 Nov capture of Ovidio Limon Sanchez, senior Sinaloa cartel leader. Middle East & North Africa Israel/Palestine PA President Abbas and Hamas politburo head Meshal met 24 Nov in Cairo for first time since 4 May reconciliation agreement, reportedly agreed to hold elections 4 May but failed to resolve differences over interim unity govt. In protest at Palestine’s 31 Oct admission to UNESCO Israel froze transfers of tax and customs revenues to PA for 4 weeks; pushing PA to brink of financial collapse according to PA PM Fayyad. Israeli govt 1 Nov announced it would accelerate construction of 2,000 housing units in contested areas of E Jerusalem and 2 West Bank settlements. UNSC Membership Committee 11 Nov report showed no majority on Palestinian full membership. Quartet representatives 14 Nov met separately with Israel and PLO counterparts; no progress. Israeli Defence Minister Barak 20 Nov warned Iran less than 1 year away from producing nuclear weapon (see Iran). Intermittent violence along Gaza border including 2 Palestinians killed 3 Nov by IDF following sniper attack; Israeli airstrike killed Islamic Jihad militant 5 Nov; Palestinian police officer killed 14 Nov in air strike following rocket attack. Rockets fired 28 Nov from southern Lebanon struck N Israel, first since 2009, IDF responded with artillery fire. Jordan King Abdullah 14 Nov suggested Syrian President Assad step down. Muslim Brotherhood 18 Nov joined opposition protests for first time, called for release of 100 Salafi activists. Abdullah 21 Nov visited West Bank for first time in 10 years, met PA President Abbas. Lebanon PM Mikati 30 Nov announced payment of Lebanon’s share of funds for UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL); 25 Nov threatened to resign if cabinet refused to pay. Govt voted against Arab League (AL) 12 Nov decision to suspend Syria; “disassociated” itself from 27 Nov AL sanctions. U.S. Treasury official 10 Nov visited Beirut to warn Lebanese banks risk being blacklisted if Syria attempts to use them to avoid sanctions. 2 bombs exploded 17 Nov in Christian community in southern Tyre; no immediate claim of responsibility. Rockets fired 28 Nov from southern Lebanon into Israel; obscure Islamist group Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility. Syria Fears of escalation in violence as month saw failed Arab League attempt to end bloodshed, accelerated militarisation of protest movement, internationalisation of conflict. UN reported some 3,500 killed in crackdown on ongoing anti-regime protests. Authorities blamed violence on foreign-backed armed groups, said killed some 1,100 soldiers and police. Opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) 7 Nov called for international intervention in security forces siege of central city Homs, called it “humanitarian disaster area”. Arab League 12 Nov voted to suspend Syria after it failed to implement 2 Nov deal to end bloodshed and withdraw forces from cities; Russian FM Lavrov called suspension ploy by West to destabilise Syria. Pro-Assad crowds 12 Nov attacked Saudi Arabian embassy, French and Turkish consulates. President Assad 20 Nov said parliamentary elections would be held early-2012 ahead of new constitution including provisions for presidential elections; govt said over 2,000 political prisoners released in month. UNGA 22 Nov adopted non-binding resolution condemning Syria’s actions. French FM Juppe 23 Nov said France seeking international recognition for SNC at UN. UNHRC published report 28 Nov accused regime of systematic murder, torture and rape. Escalating attacks by Free Syrian Army, made up of army defectors, including killing of 8 soldiers in 26 Nov ambush in Idlib. Arab League 27 Nov agreed economic sanctions against regime; Turkey 30 Nov imposed financial sanctions. Bahrain Govt-commissioned panel 23 Nov found that security forces used excessive force including torture to suppress pro-democracy protests in which 35 people died. King Hamad pledged national commission to steer reforms; head of main Shiite opposition party al-Wefaq said govt responsible for abuses not fit to implement report’s recommendations. Report also dismissed govt’s accusation of Iranian involvement in fomenting unrest. Regular pro-democracy protests continued; hours before publication of report 1 man killed as police dispersed protesters in Manana. Security forces clashed with protesters 24 Nov at funeral in Manama. Authorities 21 Nov said 20 members of security forces charged with alleged abuse of protesters. Police clashed with protesters 19 Nov at memorial for teenager killed by police car in Sitra town. King Hamad 29 Nov dismissed National Security Agency head Sheikh Khalifa bin Abdullah, member of ruling Al Khalifa family. Iran IAEA report 8 Nov said Iran appeared to have worked on designing an atomic bomb, may still be conducting secret research. President Ahmadinejad 9 Nov denied report, vowed not to retreat “one iota” on nuclear program. U.S., Britain and Canada 21 Nov announced new sanctions on financial and energy sectors to pressure Tehran to halt nuclear program; Russia dismissed sanctions as “unacceptable”, would damage chances for renewing negotiations. UK embassy stormed 29 Nov by protesters after announcement of unilateral British sanctions; all Iranian diplomats expelled from UK. Iraq U.S. military official 15 Nov said troops will remain in Iraq as military trainers after year-end withdrawal; radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr 3 Nov said he would resist any U.S. presence beyond year-end, including civilian one. Regular bombings continued across country including 19 people killed, 64 injured 24 Nov in series of bombings in Basra. Governor of Anbar province 7 Nov survived assassination attempt just outside Baghdad. Govt 22 Nov said it would sanction U.S. oil company Exxon Mobil for signing “illegal” exploration deal 13 Nov with Kurdistan regional govt. Iraq abstained from 12 Nov Arab League vote to suspend Syria, and 27 Nov sanctions; FM Zebari denied accusations of Iranian pressure on vote. 16 al-Qaeda members convicted of involvement in massacre of 70 people at 2006 wedding executed. Saudi Arabia 4 Shiite Muslims killed 20-21 Nov by “stray” police bullets during demonstrations in Eastern Province. Officials 13 Nov condemned Syrian regime after pro-Assad reporters attacked embassy in Damascus. Yemen After 10 months of mass protest President Saleh 23 Nov signed political transition agreement based on GCC-initiative, immediately transferring power to implement accord to deputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi; Saleh will retain title of president until 21 Feb presidential elections; opposition leader Mohammed Basindwa named 27 Nov as interim PM. Despite signing of power transfer, tens killed in fighting between Saleh’s forces and those loyal to opposition continued in Sanaa, Arhab and Taiz. At least 25 killed 26-27 Nov in fighting between Shiite Huthi rebels and Sunni Islamists in north. Battles continue to rage between govt forces and local tribesmen and al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula-linked militants in southern Abyan province. Algeria At least 6 suspected Islamists killed 23 Nov by security forces in eastern Ergo Mountains. 5 suspects linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) arrested over Oct kidnapping of 3 humanitarian workers. Egypt First parliamentary elections since ouster of President Mubarak began 28 Nov. High turnout for first round despite clashes 19-23 Nov between protesters demanding end of army rule and police in Cairo and other cities. At least 41 killed, over 2,000 injured; truce agreed 24 Nov negotiated by Muslim clerics. Cabinet resigned 21 Nov over violent crackdown on protests; Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) 24 Nov named Kamal al-Ganzouri as new PM. Head of SCAF Field Marshal Tantawi 22 Nov promised civilian president will be elected June 2012, 6 months sooner than planned. Supreme administrative court 18 Nov ruled former members of Mubarak’s NDP party may run in parliamentary elections. 29 injured in 17 Nov clashes with residents during Coptic Christian march in Cairo commemorating 9 Oct clashes with security forces. Libya Muammar Qadhafi son Saif al-Islam captured 19 Nov near Niger border; followed by 20 Nov capture of Qadhafi intelligence chief Abdallah Senoussi. Uncertainty over where his trial for war crimes to take place resolved after ICC prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 24 Nov announced it would be in Libya. PM Abdurrahim El-Keib 23 Nov announced new govt. UN report 24 Nov stated Libya’s former rebels are holding 7,000 detainees, highlighted reports of war crimes committed by rebels and former govt forces in Sirte; Interior Minister Fawzy Abdul-Ali acknowledged abuses occurred, said new govt trying to eliminate them. Concerns over activities of local militias outside capital; 7 dead in 12-13 Nov clashes between rival factions near Zawiya town. 7 dead in 23 Nov clashes in Bani Walid between govt troops and Qadhafi loyalists. Mauritania French FM Juppe 15 Nov said Mauritanian forces averted terrorist attack based on French intelligence; no specific details revealed. Govt 20 Nov approved 2 new TV stations and 5 radio channels following Sept announcement of media liberalisation. Morocco Moderate Islamist Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won 107 of 395 seats in 25 Nov parliamentary election, first under new constitution; PJD will head coalition govt for first time. King Mohamed VI named PJD head Abdelilah Benkirane new PM. Roughly 15,000 demonstrated 20 Nov in major cities calling for boycott of elections. Growing budget deficit reached 25bn dirhams mid-month. Ambassador to Syria recalled 16 Nov after embassy in Damascus attacked by pro-Assad crowds. Tunisia Country saw formation of new govt following historic 23 Oct election. Final poll results announced 14 Nov; moderate Islamist An-Nahda party won 41% of vote, 89 out of 217 Constituent Assembly (CA) seats; left-leaning Congress for the Republic (CPR) led by prominent rights activist Moncef Marzouki 29 seats; populist Popular Petition party led by former Islamist militant 26 seats; liberal socialist Ettakatol 20 seats. New CA inaugurated 22 Nov; 3 main parties formalised power-sharing agreement same day: Hamadi Jebali of An-Nahda to be PM, CPR and Ettakatol holding largely ceremonial Presidency and Speaker of Parliament posts. Military court 30 Nov found ousted president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and several of his senior officials guilty in absentia of torture. Continued concerns over post-election unrest in South and West; thousands-strong peaceful demonstration in Kasserine turned violent 23 Nov, riots in Gafsa region 24 Nov as protestors attacked govt building, authorities declared curfew. Hundreds of demonstrators clashed with students at Manouba University 28-29 Nov over wearing of veil by female students. Interim President Fouad Mebazza 29 Nov signed decree extending state of emergency. Authorities 1 Nov issued international arrest warrant for Suha Arafat, widow of late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, as part of corruption probe into Tunisia’s former first family. Govt 8 Nov approved extradition of former Libya PM Baghdadi al-Mahmudi. Western Sahara UN Western Sahara Envoy Christopher Ross toured capitals of countries included in so-called “Group of Friends of Western Sahara” in attempt to solve deadlocked talks between Polisario Front and Morocco. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________(c) 2011 International Crisis Group

Overview India and Pakistan have consistently subjected Kashmiri interests to their own national security agendas and silenced calls for greater autonomy. With the start of their composite dialogue – comprehensive negotiations to resolve all contentious bilateral issues, including Kashmir, launched in February 2004 – both appeared willing to allow more interaction across the Line of Control (LOC) but failed to engage Kashmiris in the process. As a result, they did not take full advantage of opportunities to enhance cross-LOC cooperation by identifying the most appropriate Kashmir-specific confidence-building measures (CBMs), and bureaucratic resistance in both capitals resulted in uneven implementation of even those that had been agreed. India has suspended the composite dialogue since the November 2008 Mumbai attacks by Pakistan-based militants, but neither New Delhi nor Islamabad has backtracked on these CBMs. Nevertheless, the CBM process will only achieve major results if the two sides devolve authority to Kashmir’s elected representatives and take other vital steps to win over its alienated public. Despite the recent rise in militancy, clashes between separatists and security personnel and other violence, Kashmir (known formally as Jammu and Kashmir, J&K) is not the battlefield it was in the 1990s. The Indian government has pledged to reduce its military presence there and has made some overtures to moderate factions of the separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC). It has also refrained from the blatant election rigging that characterised J&K polls in the past. The roots of Kashmiri alienation, however, still run deep, and outbreaks of violence occur regularly. J&K remains heavily militarised, and draconian laws that encourage human rights abuses by security forces remain, fuelling public resentment that the militants could once again exploit. In Pakistan, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government has taken some action against operatives of the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT), renamed Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JD), responsible for the Mumbai attacks. The alleged masterminds of this action are being tried, the first time in the country’s history that criminal charges were levied against the perpetrators of terrorism on foreign soil. Pakistan-based militants, however, still regularly infiltrate the LOC, and the military, which retains control of Kashmir policy, continues to support Kashmir-oriented jihadi groups, including the LeT/JD and the Jaish-e-Mohammad. A second Mumbai-like attack in India by these or other Pakistan-based jihadis would bring relations to another low, indeed possibly to the brink of war. Post-Mumbai, mounting tensions between the two neigh­bours have eclipsed Kashmiri hopes for political liberalisation and economic opportunity. Given the Kashmiri political elites’ subservience to New Delhi or Islamabad, this atmosphere of mutual hostility is widening the gulf between J&K and Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), undermining the progress that had been made in softening the borders that divide the Kashmiri people. Moreover, the corrupt and dysfunctional state governments in both Srinagar and Muzafarabad are failing to provide basic services and are reluctant to solicit voices from across the political spectrum, thus contributing to the fractures in Kashmiri society. In India-admin­istered Kashmir, for instance, Ladakh and Jammu are increasingly resentful of the Valley’s monopoly over J&K’s relations with New Delhi. The Indian government cannot afford to postpone crucial decisions to improve centre-state relations. It should revive the “special status” guaranteed by the constitution and repeal all draconian laws. Replacing military-led counter-insurgency with accountable policing and reviving an economy devastated by violence and conflict would instil greater confidence among Kashmiris. It is in New Delhi’s interest to be regarded as a sincere partner committed to improving Kashmiri lives, not as an occupying force. While Pakistan’s elected civilian leadership has expressed a desire for improved bilateral relations and to resume the composite dialogue, it must ensure that jihadis can no longer disrupt the regional peace. Islamabad must also make certain that civilian institutions, particularly AJK’s elected bodies, drive the normalisation process. Likewise, policymakers in both the national capital and Muzafarabad should prioritise reforms that open political debate to all shades of Kashmiri opinion, stimulate the local economy and end AJK’s over-dependence on the centre. This briefing resumes Crisis Group reporting on the Kashmir conflict after a four-year gap, assesses existing cross-LOC CBMs and identifies the key political, social and economic needs of Kashmiris that need to be addressed on both sides of the divided state. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ (c) 2010 International Crisis Group

Slovenia: Violence surrounds the Ljubljana Pride Amnesty International condemns the recent attack on the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people which took place on the night of 25 June 2009 in Ljubljana, capital city of Slovenia. The organization calls on the Slovenian authorities to conduct prompt, independent, impartial and thorough investigation of the incident and to bring those responsible to justice. Amnesty International also urges the authorities to publically condemn the attack and to express their support for the participants and organizers of the Ljubljana Pride which is planned for Saturday, 27 of June 2009. On the night of 25 June 2009, as part of a week of cultural events preceding the Ljubljana Pride a literary evening was organized in the Cafe Open in Ljubljana. At around 9 pm between seven and eight unidentified masked men carrying stones and torches gathered in front of the Cafe. They started shouting homophobic statements calling for the death of LGBT people. Shortly after, they started throwing stones and torches at the Cafe which resulted in material damage to the Cafe. Five of the men approached Mitja Blažic, well known Slovenian LGBT activist and journalist, who was standing in front of the Cafe building and started assaulting him. He was severely beaten up. The perpetrators hit him with torches and threw stones at him which resulted in a head injury, burns on his neck and damaged finger. Following the attack Mitja Blažic was taken to hospital where his head was stitched and other injuries fixed. Amnesty International calls on the authorities to ensure the right of everyone to effectively exercise their right to freedom of peaceful assembly without discrimination. The organization urges the authorities to provide effective and adequate protection to LGBT people during and after the Ljubljana Pride. End/ © 2009 Amnesty International USA

The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia’s refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility. The 2000 Algiers agreements, which provided a ceasefire and the institutional mechanisms to resolve the border dispute, have not been fully implemented. The EEBC was unable to bring Ethiopia to accept the physical demarcation foreseen in Algiers, leading to political stalemate. In the absence of adequate support from Security Council members, the EEBC dissolved itself on 30 November 2007, after providing a demarcation by coordinates. Its disappearance removed an important forum where, even if they disagreed, the parties ex­changed views regularly before a third-party arbiter. In January 2008, Eritrea began deploying its army in the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) and forcing UNMEE off its territory by blocking fuel supplies. It considers the EEBC’s virtual demarcation the end of the border dispute and argues that the continued presence of UNMEE or Ethiopian troops on its territory is tantamount to occupation. Furious at the lack of international support for the EEBC ruling, Eritrea tried to provoke a reaction by expelling UNMEE. Ethiopia views the EEBC’s virtual demarcation as “legal nonsense” and continues to insist on the need for a dialogue on normalisation of relations ahead of physical demarcation. Asmara in turn perceives dialogue and nor­malisation of relations as Ethiopian stratagems to undermine the EEBC ruling and, ultimately, its sovereignty. Ethiopia and Eritrea have had no incentive to resolve the frozen border conflict. Indeed, both regimes have used it as an excuse to enhance their domestic power at the expense of democracy and economic growth, thus reducing the attractiveness to them of diplomatic compromise. They support the other’s domestic rebels, and each is convinced that the fall of the other’s regime is imminent and the only real solution to the border dispute. At the same time, the key international actors have allowed this situation to remain frozen because of overriding concerns, such as Washington’s concentration on its counter-terrorism priorities. However, the significance of the bilateral dispute has been magnified by its impact on the region, especially the conflict in Somalia, where insurgents backed by Eritrea battle Ethiopian troops that support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The departure from the scene of the EEBC and the de facto expulsion of UNMEE have made this conflict much more dangerous, removing the means of continuing dialogue between the parties and its “brake lining”. A miscalculation on either side could lead to a disastrous return to conflict. The likely alternative to a solution to the border dispute and other bilateral issues is not continued frozen conflict but a war that would produce chaos in the region and quite possibly result in the loss of power of both contestants’ leaders (President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia). The international community urgently needs to take a number of steps, including acceptance by the Security Council of the virtual demarcation of the border; transformation of UNMEE into a more mobile, faster-reacting tripwire mechanism with a lighter footprint patterned after one of several models that worked well in Sudan in the 2002-2005 period; and appointment by the UN of a senior and widely respected special negotiator to set up and manage an alternative forum for dialogue. The immediate priority is to persuade Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from all land the EEBC awarded Eritrea and for Eritrea to pull its army back from the TSZ. Dialogue on normalisation of relations should start in parallel with progressive border demarcation. This would be consistent with past Council resolutions, which demanded both Ethiopian acceptance and implementation of EEBC decisions and the start of a bilateral normalisation dialogue. The basic goals remain to get Ethiopia to accept the border, Eritrea to accept the need for dialogue and the international community to provide the carrots and sticks needed to press the parties, including financing for trans-border development. Overcoming so many contrary predilections, even in the Security Council and major capitals, but especially in Addis Ababa and Asmara, will be hard. But there are some objective considerations that might attract both sides to the process recommended below. Eritrea wants to consolidate its independence, prefers physical border demarcation to virtual demarcation, seeks Ethiopian withdrawal from Badme in particular and desires better relations with the West. Building a reconfigured progress on the EEBC’s conclusions about the border should give it enough to be open to a wide-ranging dialogue. Prospective access to Eritrean ports and essentially an end to internal armed insurgencies should be meaningful incentives for Ethiopia. Regardless of the obstacles, the attempt must be made. The consequences of renewed war for everyone’s interests are too serious to permit anything less. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (c) 2017 International Crisis Group

The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis. To prevent this, the international community – in particular, the UN Security Council and the U.S., which is the single most influential outsider – must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. Once the immediate danger is past, efforts should be reinvigorated to ensure that the parties comply with their international law obligations, disengage on the ground and restore the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) – in a longer time frame – to develop political and economic initiatives for resolving the fundamental problems between the old foes. Citing Eritrean encroachment into the TSZ, Ethiopia announced on 25 September 2007 that it was considering terminating the Algiers agreement, which ended the war in 2000. In reply Eritrea accused it of repeated violations of that peace treaty and called again for the Security Council to enforce the decision of the Boundary Commission Algiers established. The U.S. now estimates that Eritrea has 4,000 troops, supported by artillery and armour, in the supposedly demilitarised TSZ and an additional 120,000 troops nearby. In August it estimated that Ethiopia maintains 100,000 troops along the border. Both sides agreed in Algiers to submit the border dispute to the Boundary Commission, whose mandate was to “delimit and demarcate the colonial treaty border based on pertinent colonial treaties (1900, 1902 and 1908) and applicable international law”. They further agreed that its decision would be final and binding. In April 2002 the Commission gave its ruling, delimiting the border on the map and in so doing locating the village of Badme, the site of the original dispute that sparked off the war in 1998, in Eritrea. Since then Ethiopia, though it won on other aspects of the ruling, has blocked demarcation of the border on the ground, while Eritrea has called for the international community to insist on this without further delay. Eritrea has right on its side on this point but has played its cards very badly. Frustrated by the lack of progress, it has alienated many of its supporters, including a number of Western states, aid agencies and the UN. It has seized their vehicles, restricted their monitoring teams, expelled their personnel and arrested Eritreans working for embassies. In addition, its repression of its own people and lack of democracy have left it shunned by all but a handful of states. The stalemate came to a head at the Commission’s most recent unproductive meeting, in September 2007, during which the Ethiopian delegate insisted on prior satisfaction of a range of extraneous measures. On balance, however, Ethiopia has played its hand skilfully. It has used its position as the major power in the region to win U.S. toleration of its intransigence and to keep criticism of its own human rights record to a minimum. Its military intervention in Somalia has drawn little overt adverse response. It would not be surprising if Addis Ababa believes an effort in the near future to stage a coup in Asmara and use force against an Eritrean government that has few friends would also be tolerated in Washington. The rapidly approaching danger point is the end of November, when the Boundary Commission indicates it will close down unless it is allowed to proceed to demarcation. Before then it is essential that the two sides be left in no doubt that use of force, directly or indirectly, is not acceptable and that a party that resorts to it will be held accountable. Specifically this means that: the U.S. should convey a firm private message to both sides that direct or indirect use of force to resume the conflict and reach a unilateral solution would be unacceptable and, specifically to Ethiopia where its influence is at this time stronger, that it will take appropriate diplomatic and economic measures against it if it attacks or seeks to overthrow the Eritrean regime; and the Security Council should pass a resolution reiterating its support for the Boundary Commission decision, requesting it to remain in being beyond the end of November so that it is available to demarcate the border, and stating that even without such demarcation the border as found by the Commission is acknowledged as the legal boundary between the two countries. Once this line has been drawn, the international community should resume with new urgency its efforts to break the immediate stalemate. Consideration might be given to the following: a Security Council resolution or statement reiterating the requirement on Ethiopia to accept the Boundary Commission ruling unconditionally and cooperate in its implementation, including by pulling back from its forward military positions south of the border, and on Eritrea to withdraw its army from the TSZ; appointment by the Secretary-General of a new Special Representative and head of the UN mission (UNMEE), who should press both sides to allow the international peacekeepers to reoccupy the positions they have been forced to leave in the TSZ and proceed unhindered in their work; and discussion among members of the Security Council and within other key international constituencies including the guarantors and witnesses of the Algiers agreement – the African Union (AU), the UN, the U.S. and the European Union (EU) – about incentives (primarily economic) and disincentives (credible sanctions) that would likely be required to obtain cooperation in de-escalating the situation on the ground and implementing the Commission decision. In the somewhat longer run, Addis Ababa and Asmara will need to end their military and financial support for rebels operating on the other’s soil, respect the arms embargo on Somalia and restart a dialogue with the support of their regional and other international friends. None of the steps to break the current deadlock and begin to rebuild mutually beneficial relations will be easy or quick. But the immediate need is to prevent the war from restarting so that there is time to work on them. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (c) 2017 International Crisis Group

Latest Updates Africa Burundi Prospect of peace talks between Front National de Libération (FNL) rebels and government remained low, further complicated by UN mission (ONUB) call for FNL to disarm unconditionally. Clashes between security forces and FNL continued, 5 rebels and 1 soldier killed outside Bujumbura 15 February. ONUB continued progressive disengagement with withdrawal of Kenyan peacekeepers. Government rejected UN Special Representative McAskie’s proposal for forum of Burundi’s donors to replace Arusha Accord Implementation and Monitoring Committee, whose mandate expired August 2005, saying proposed body would undertake tasks in government’s domain and justify undesired extension of ONUB’s mandate. Additional 780 political prisoners freed as part of amnesty launched January; released will face questioning by truth commission and possible re-incarceration. Central African Republic Clashes between army and bandits in northwest displaced over 4,000 villagers; many fled to Chad. Refugees reported 50 killed in violence. Chad Relations with Sudan improved with 8 February agreement in Libya to end support to each other’s rebel groups and establish force to patrol border. Cross-border raids continued despite accord and high-level defections from Chad’s army to Darfur-based Chadian rebels increasing likelihood of continued escalation between neighbours; many refugees fled to Darfur to escape fighting. Sudanese and Chadian militias from Darfur, with apparent Sudanese government backing, reportedly behind attacks. Chadian rebels demanded President Deby hold national forum for change ahead of 3 May presidential election; threatened coup. Democratic Republic of Congo New constitution officially adopted 18 February granting DRC new legal framework, including president-PM power share and 2-term limit for elected president. Parliament approved electoral law but election commission announced polls delayed until 18 June from 29 April. EU investigating option of sending troops to reinforce UN mission (MONUC) for elections, but took no decision on size of force and member state contributions. Fighting continued in North Kivu and Katanga between army and militias. MONUC threatened to stop assisting army trying to push out rebels in east, if DRC troops continue to commit human rights violations during operations. Setback for reintegration of ex-fighters into army after 6 starved to death at Kamina training camp because allotted rations and payment not arriving. Rwanda Local government elections held 6 and 20 February passed off peacefully with high voter turnout; mayors to be chosen 1 March by newly elected officials; key steps in broader decentralisation process. Norway agreed to try former Rwandan official Michel Bagaragaza for role during 1994 genocide as Rwanda criticised transfer of case from International Criminal Tribunal. Ethiopia/Eritrea Situation remained tense along disputed border with troop movement reported on both sides. UN Security Council agreed 8 February to give U.S. 30 days to resolve border dispute before considering troop redeployment. Witnesses of 2000 Algiers Agreement (Algeria, AU, EU, UN, U.S.) met 22 February in attempt to expedite border demarcation process but Asmara refused to work with independent boundary commission to resolve dispute. Eritrea arrested 27 local UN mission staff; 25 later released but no official reason given for arrests. Ethiopia Trial of 129 opposition members charged with treason after November 2005 rioting opened 23 February. EU Development Commissioner Louis Michel met with PM Zenawi in effort to restore dialogue; visited jailed opposition and reported many needed urgent medical attention, including CUD party Chairman Hailu Shawel. Somalia Transitional parliament met in Somalia for first time in Baidoa 26 February; adjourned session for 1 week to allow members to resolve personal differences. Insecurity continued throughout country: heavy fighting between militia associated with Islamic courts and those loyal to Mogadishu warlords left at least 38 dead in capital. Severe drought led to clashes between rival clans for control of dam inside Ethiopian border; at least 12 killed. In Puntland, clashes between gunmen loyal to Planning Minister Farole and security forces killed 3; mass protest against Danish newspaper cartoons killed 1. Somaliland Land dispute in Hargeysa flared into inter-clan conflict; 6 killed. President Kahin appointed mediation committee at emergency cabinet meeting. Sudan UN Security Council authorised planning for expected re-hatting of AU mission in Darfur to UN mission, despite strong objections from Khartoum; resolution expected March after AU makes final decision on handover. UNSG Annan asked U.S. President Bush for greater U.S. role in Darfur; Bush called for doubling of international troops and role for NATO in planning and logistics. Little progress in Darfur peace talks with continued insecurity on ground. UK FM Straw warned would consider UN sanctions if no headway made. Sudan and Chad signed agreement in Libya to end cross-border dispute, committing to preventing presence of rebels on other’s territory. UN expert panel recommended Security Council extend arms embargo; discussions on sanctions for individuals seen to be blocking peace process continued. 7 killed in clashes between South Sudan Defence Forces and SPLA in Upper Nile region. Eastern Front rebels indefinitely postponed peace talks with government. Uganda President Museveni reelected with 59% of vote in first ever multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections 23 February. Main opposition rival Kiiza Besigye, still on trial for treason, second with 37%; to contest results. Ruling NRM party reportedly won 202 of 309 parliamentary seats while opposition FDC won 40. No major election day violence reported though police clashed with opposition supporters outside Besigye’s headquarters. International observers said state media favoured Museveni during campaign, while security forces allegedly intimidated opposition. Tensions between courts and military increased after latter defied court and re-arrested 14 accused of treason with Besigye. Military killed 4 LRA rebels in cross-border operations in Sudan. Angola President Eduardo Dos Santos indicated presidential elections to be postponed until 2007 to allow for infrastructure repair and voter registration. Swaziland King Mswati III officially brought new constitution into effect 8 February; maintains monarchy’s absolute powers. Attacks on government targets continued with Mbabane police camp petrol-bombed. 1 of 16 members of banned PUDEMO opposition party charged with high treason pleaded guilty and confessed to planning attacks on government targets. Zimbabwe Former activist Arthur Mutambara voted head of pro-senate faction as battle with disputed leader Morgan Tsvangirai for leadership of opposition MDC party continued. Government announced plan to allow seizure of passports of critics. Zimbabwe avoided IMF’s threat of expulsion by paying off $9 million in debt; inflation expected to worsen beyond current 613% after government printed money to pay off loan. Côte d’Ivoire Key talks between political and rebel leaders, including President Gbagbo and rebel Guillaume Soro, aimed at reviving peace process held 28 February in Yamoussoukro. Meeting of UN-backed international mediators passed off peacefully 17 February; January meeting had provoked violent demonstrations against UN by Gbagbo supporters, angry at mediators’ recommendation to dissolve parliament. UN Security Council approved move of small mechanised unit from Liberia to Côte d’Ivoire, though Annan requested larger reinforcement. UN imposed sanctions on Gbagbo supporters Charles Ble Goude and Eugene Djue and rebel commander Fofie Kouakou for hampering peace efforts. Guinea Unions representing 80% of all workers called 5- day general strike 27 February to demand wage increases. Protests held in Guekedou against appointment of mayor belonging to ruling PUP party, which won disputed electoral victory in December; 2 killed in clashes with police. Liberia New President Johnson-Sirleaf inaugurated 7- member Truth and Reconciliation Commission to investigate crimes committed during 24-year civil war and launched anti- corruption drive with overhaul of finance ministry. Nominations to cabinet and other top posts nearly complete: controversy over appointment of Nigerian to head restructuring of army and former elections commission chief as justice minister. Workers at Firestone rubber plantation went on strike demanding better wages and work conditions. Nigeria Security deteriorated with upsurge in religious and political violence. Protests by Muslims against Danish cartoons satirising Prophet Mohammed turned violent, killing 50, mostly Christians, as churches and Christian businesses targeted in several northern cities. In response, riots broke out against Muslims in Christian south; over 100 reported dead. Security situation remained volatile in Delta region, after new series of politically motivated attacks by Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta on oil infrastructure and kidnapping of 9 foreign workers. Sierra Leone Trial continued for former leader of Civil Defence Forces militia Samuel Hinga Norman, indicted by UN Special Court for crimes against humanity during civil war: President Kabbah subpoenaed to testify. In local trial, former Revolutionary United Front rebel spokesman Omrie Golley and 2 co-defendants charged with treason boycotted proceedings alleging judge biased. Asia China (internal) Beijing moved to prevent future rural unrest through plan to give aid to poor farmers. Former Communist Party chief He Feng jailed for life after hiring thugs to beat up rural protesters. Korean Peninsula Talks with Japan failed to solve any outstanding issues. NK repeated condition for returning to 6-party nuclear talks, suspended since November 2005, would be lifting of U.S. economic sanctions. North-South military-level talks to resume 2 March after 19-month hiatus. Taiwan Strait Tension raised between Beijing and Taipei after President Chen Shui-bian announced National Unification Council and its guidelines would “cease to function” 27 February. Move brought condemnation from Beijing who previously called Chen “troublemaker and saboteur”. Afghanistan London Conference endorsing “Afghanistan Compact” saw 60 nations and organisations pledge ongoing commitment to Afghanistan, with ambitious benchmarks for governance, development and security; over $10 billion promised. Dutch parliament voted in favour of sending troops to restive southern region of Uruzgan, while first British troops arrived in neighbouring Helmand province. 12 killed in violent protests against cartoons in European publications. Violence in Helmand province killed 6 police and 20 Taliban, allegedly in connection with control of drug routes. Sectarian clashes between Shiite minority and Sunnis at 9 February Ashura festival killed at least 5 in western Herat. President Karzai visited Pakistan to discuss upsurge of cross-border violence in south and east. U.S. President Bush made first visit to Kabul 1 March. Bangladesh Main opposition party Awami League (AL) returned to parliament after year-long boycott. Protests caused chaos in Dhaka: AL-organised general strike called for government resignation, while demonstrations also held against Danish cartoons. Dutch development minister indicated EU readiness to mediate dialogue between government and opposition. Senior AL leader Sheikh Yunus Ali targeted and seriously injured in bomb blast. 4 Jamaat- ul-Mujahideen leaders, including Shayek Abdur Rahman, sentenced to 40 years imprisonment for involvement in November 2005 killing of 2 judges. India (non-Kashmir) Maoist violence escalated in Chhattisgarh state while northeastern unrest continued. Maoists killed 70, including 8 police in 9 February raid on state-run explosives factory, and as many as 55 members of anti- Maoist group in 28 February landmine blast. Protests against death of man in police custody in northeastern Tinsukia district turned violent killing 12. Representatives for United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) held productive talks with state officials 7 February ahead of proposed direct talks between government and ULFA leadership; government agreed to series of confidence-building measures. Attack on state gas workers 14 February killed 3; National Liberation Front of Tripura rebels suspected. Kashmir Confidence-building measures continued with resumption of train service across Thar desert after 40-year suspension. Indian PM Manmohan Singh called conference of Indian Kashmiri politicians and separatist leaders for 25 February; many declined calling talks “premature”. Strikes in Indian-controlled Kashmir followed fatal shooting of 4 boys 22 February, apparently in crossfire between security forces and separatists, while further separatist violence killed 5 next day. Clashes erupted between Buddhists and Muslims in Ladakh 8 February, after torn pages of Koran found near mosque in Kargil. India reportedly withdrew 5,000 troops from Indian- controlled Kashmir in response to improving security situation. Nepal Municipal elections boycotted by all major parties and criticised by UK, U.S., Japan and India as deeply flawed. Maoists supported boycott with armed campaign, targeting security forces and government buildings and killing 1 mayoral candidate. Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) launched offensive against Maoists in southwest, reportedly in response to deadly attacks in Palpa district. King’s power weakened by increasingly active judiciary: Supreme Court disbanded royalist anti-corruption commission, and ordered release of detained Nepali Congress Party spokesman. Former PM Deuba also released, along with 17 political leaders, but house arrest of CPN-UML leader M.K. Nepal extended by 2 months. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights released report on rights violations by RNA and Maoists and called for violators to be excluded from UN peacekeeping roles. Pakistan Sectarian violence erupted in North West Frontier Province: at least 35 killed in suicide bombing on Shiite Ashura procession and subsequent unrest. Government officials blamed external elements rather than local sectarian tensions, while local Shiite leaders blamed government for failing to curb Sunni militants. 5 days of increasingly violent protests held to denounce publication of cartoons of Prophet Mohammed in western media. Protests turned deadly in Lahore and Peshawar; 5 reported killed. Islamist coalition Muttahida Majlis- i-Amal leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, briefly held under house arrest to prevent him leading Islamabad rally 19 February. Unrest continued in South Waziristan as 3 soldiers killed by roadside bomb 5 February. Balochistan rebels intensified insurgency with 2 February rocket attack and 5 February bus bomb: at least 21 killed. Nationwide protest planned against 3 March visit of U.S. President Bush. Sri Lanka In significant step forward, government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, meeting in Geneva, released joint statement committing to curb violence and hold further talks in April. Violence decreased considerably in run-up to 22-23 February Norwegian-backed talks. Government freed 4 rebels as good-will gesture. Cambodia Opposition leader Sam Rainsy returned from self-imposed exile 10 February after receiving royal pardon for allegations against PM Hun Sen and National Assembly leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh; pardon followed Rainsy apology. International donor meeting scheduled to start 3 March. Indonesia Draft bill on Aceh governance under consideration in parliament; key issues include participation of independent candidates in local elections scheduled for June and formation of local political parties. Target deadline for new law 31 March. EU/ASEAN Aceh Monitoring Mission extended for 3 months (until 15 June). Diplomatic tension with Timor Leste eased after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono met President Gusmao Xanana to discuss UN-backed report on Indonesian human rights violations in former province. Deadline for decision on legal status of West Irian Jaya province passed 20 February without resolution. Heavy sentences on terrorism charges handed down in Ambon: Asep Jaja, man who led attack on paramilitary police post in May 2005, sentenced to death, while 2 others given life in prison. Mostly peaceful demonstrations against Danish cartoons took place throughout country. Myanmar Opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) offered to recognise military rule if military junta frees NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi and convenes parliament elected in 1990. Under proposal, parliament would then recognise junta as de jure transitional government. Deadly clashes reported between military and Indian Nagaland (NSCN-K) separatist groups based in Myanmar. Philippines State of emergency declared by President Arroyo 24 February amidst reports that military thwarted coup attempt and after minor blast at presidential palace. Top military officers “retired” in end to minor rebellion by marines, Daily Tribune newspaper’s offices raided while 16 members of congress and security forces charged with coup plot. Commemorations to mark 20th anniversary of revolution that ousted President Marcos cancelled but small rallies held, leading to minor standoffs with security forces. Exploratory talks began 6 February between Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and government; both sides hopeful for peace agreement on Moro homeland and future of 12,000-strong MILF force by September 2006. Clashes continued between military and suspected Abu Sayyaf members on Basilan and with Communist National People’s Army south of capital. Thailand PM Thaksin Shinawatra dissolved parliament and called snap election for 2 April following mass protests by People’s Alliance for Democracy and media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul calling for Thaksin’s resignation over corruption. Opposition parties declared intention to boycott election. Meanwhile daily violence continued in south. Local state school teachers in Narathiwat taken hostage by villagers in response to perceived arbitrary arrests by police, as concern persisted over police powers associated with emergency decree. National Reconciliation Committee due to release final report on southern situation and recommendations in March. Fiji Military repeated vow to stop controversial Promotion of Reconciliation, Tolerance and Unity Bill which would give amnesty to perpetrators of 2000 coup. Europe & Central Asia Albania First component of Stabilisation and Association Agreement signed with EU 18 February; EU approval of full agreement expected later in year. EU Commission President Barroso urged Albanian consensus on solving priority issues of judicial reform, organised crime and economy. Bosnia And Herzegovina Milorad Dodik formed new government as PM for Republika Srpska 28 February. EU Commission and High Representative Schwarz-Schilling said negotiations on Stabilisation and Association Agreement could be completed by end 2006 provided Bosnia cooperates with ICTY and strengthens state-level police and public broadcasting. War crimes suspect Milan Lukic transferred from Argentina to Hague. Court charged ex-state presidency member Mirko Sarovic and Bosnian Serb wartime minister Momcilo Mandic with financial irregularities designed to aid Radovan Karadzic. War crimes suspect Dragomir Abazovic, whose wife was killed during his arrest by EUFOR, released. Montenegro EU Council threatened Serbia with suspension of Stabilisation and Association negotiations if Ratko Mladic not arrested by 5 April. False reports that Ratko Mladic arrested caused media furore. EU FMs also supported Miroslav Lajcak’s formula of 55% majority for Montenegro’s independence referendum; Montenegrin PM Djukanovic accepted proposal. First face-to-face Kosovo status negotiations between Serbian government and Kosovo Albanians held 20-21 February in Vienna, ended inconclusively; next round 17 March. Serbian parliament accepted results of first round of talks but announcements by key international officials that Kosovo independence likely outcome set off political firestorm in Belgrade. Serbs in Bujanovac, southern Serbia, proposed referendum on partition of town into Serbian and Albanian sectors, after Serb concern local Albanians will increase links with Kosovo. Serbia EU Council threatened Serbia with suspension of Stabilisation and Association negotiations if Ratko Mladic not arrested by 5 April. False reports that Ratko Mladic arrested caused media furore. EU FMs also supported Miroslav Lajcak’s formula of 55% majority for Montenegro’s independence referendum; Montenegrin PM Djukanovic accepted proposal. First face-to-face Kosovo status negotiations between Serbian government and Kosovo Albanians held 20-21 February in Vienna, ended inconclusively; next round 17 March. Serbian parliament accepted results of first round of talks but announcements by key international officials that Kosovo independence likely outcome set off political firestorm in Belgrade. Serbs in Bujanovac, southern Serbia, proposed referendum on partition of town into Serbian and Albanian sectors, after Serb concern local Albanians will increase links with Kosovo. Armenia Parliament elected long-time aide to President Kocharian as human rights ombudsman. Outgoing ombudsman, seen as more critical, not permitted to present report to parliament but said would still publish findings. Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe issued declaration condemning rigging of November 2005 referendum on constitutional amendments. Azerbaijan President Aliyev removed influential head of Customs Committee, appointing him to minor ministerial post, and dismissed labour minister: measures seen as further sidelining of potential rivals and “old guard”. Musavat party broke with opposition Azadlig alliance by ending boycott of new parliament and announced will participate in May election re-runs in 10 constituencies. OSCE report reaffirmed earlier conclusions that November elections did not meet democratic standards. Protests held in Baku and religious suburb of Nardaran against Danish cartoons. European Parliament passed resolution accusing Baku of destroying Armenian cemetery in Nakchivan. Chechnya (Russia) PM Sergei Abramov resigned over ill health, paving way for likely takeover by current caretaker PM, pro-Kremlin hardliner, Ramzan Kadyrov. Chechen rebels claimed responsibility for military barracks collapse, which Russia said caused by domestic gas explosion: 13 killed. At least 16 soldiers and 4 rebels, reportedly including senior rebel commander, killed in series of clashes. Rebels conducted major leadership reshuffle, ordering most ministers abroad to return; move said to reflect ideological split between leader and radical elements. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour expressed concern over abuses in Chechnya during visit to republic; President Putin warned UN against politicising rights issues. Chechen government banned Danish aid workers in response to Danish newspaper cartoons of Prophet Mohammed. Georgia Tensions escalated between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia. Parliament adopted resolution, watered-down under international pressure, instructing government to replace Russian peacekeepers with international forces, while Russia announced visa halt for Georgians. Joint Control Commission meeting planned in Vienna 20-21 February cancelled, replaced by meeting in Moscow not attended by Georgia or OSCE. Tense situation in conflict zone continued: Georgia detained 3 Russian officers for visa violation, and Georgian and Russian troops set up tit-for-tat roadblocks. UN- led Georgian-Abkhaz negotiations in Geneva 2-3 February failed to finalise agreement on non-resumption of hostilities or set date for both sides’ leaders to meet. Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) Talks between Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian President Kocharian produced no tangible results, reportedly after failure to agree on linkage between referendum on status and withdrawal from occupied territory. Mediated by OSCE Minsk Group, talks sought to produce statement on general principles of settlement. Sides expressed readiness to continue negotiations and OSCE co-chairs set to meet in Washington early March. Russian President Putin during Baku visit said Russia willing to help broker negotiations. Russia/North Caucasus Violence spread north from turbulent border republics with clash between security forces and suspected militants in Stavrapol krai, leaving 7 police, 12 gunmen dead. Head of Daghestan Republic Magomedali Magomedov resigned stoking fears of power struggle: Kremlin installed Mukhu Aliyev as successor. In further clashes, at least 5 reported killed in Daghestan and 2 in Ingushetia. 3 blasts, treated as terrorist attacks, at gaming halls in North Ossetian town of Vladikavkaz killed 2. Belarus Opposition leader Sergei Skrebets, who withdrew from presidential race in January, given 2.5 year prison sentence on corruption charges said by rights activists to be politically motivated. Visit by high-level EU and U.S. officials cancelled after Belarus refused visas. OSCE said 400 observers will monitor March presidential election. As official campaigning of 4 registered candidates started, intimidation of opposition candidates continued: signatures collected by candidate Milinkevich invalidated in Hrodna oblast; 120 opposition supporters arrested in rallies protesting President Lukashenko 16-19 February. Moldova Former Defence Minister Pasat indicted for attempt to stage coup and assassinate senior opposition figure. Pasat already serving prison sentence for abuse of ministerial position. Russia said will not remove weapons cache stored in Transdniestria region until peace settlement reached. EU extended travel ban on senior Transdniestrian officials over lack of cooperation in resolving conflict and smuggling. Ukraine President Yushchenko called for new constitution in annual address to parliament. In apparent reaction to his pro- NATO drive, parliament voted down bill allowing foreign troop exercises in Ukraine. Russia told to increase rent payments for stationing its Black Sea fleet in Crimea. UN condemned deportation of 10 asylum-seekers back to Uzbekistan. Basque Country (Spain) Statements by Spanish PM Jose Zapatero and Basque President Juan Jose Ibarretze fuelled speculation ETA could soon announce ceasefire: but mass protests in Madrid urged government not to negotiate. 3 bombings in Basque Country and 1 in Navarre region were preceded by ETA warnings. Cyprus EU Council voted 27 February to release €139 million in aid to Turkish Cypriots by controversially de-linking aid from direct trade regulation: Turkish Cypriots criticised de-linkage. UNSG Annan and President Papadopoulos met 28 February; agreed resumption of negotiations “must be timely and based on careful preparation”. Greek Cypriot ship attempting to access Turkish port, first time since 2005 Turkish commitment to allow all EU states docking rights, refused access by Turkish authorities. Cypriot government asked EU to take action. New Greek FM Dora Bakoyanni, known to have supported Annan peace plan while mayor of Athens, said Cyprus solution a priority. Northern Ireland (UK) Political party talks halted 20 February as DUP refused to negotiate with Sinn Fein (SF) directly and SF rejected alternative format. UK Northern Ireland Sec. Peter Hain had called for devolution agreement by 8 March; unveiled bill 16 February that facilitates agreement by allowing early elections and increase in assembly responsibility for law and order. Independent Monitoring Commission Report released 1 February: accepted IRA “eschewed terrorism”, confirmed significant, but incomplete, decommissioning, and condemned IRA involvement in organised crime and illegal intelligence gathering. Report also reprimanded UDA for “continuing paramilitary activity”. 41 arrested in Dublin after 25 February Republican riots in protest at Unionist march organised to remember victims of Republican violence. Turkey Explosions in Istanbul café and supermarket killed 1; militant group Kurdistan Liberation Hawks claimed responsibility. Army killed 7 PKK rebels in clashes in southeast Mardin province. Freedom of speech trials continued, including of 5 prominent journalists for insulting judiciary. Kazakhstan Opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaev assassinated along with driver and bodyguard, sending shock waves through political elite: second suspicious death of senior opposition figure since November. Senate General Secretary Erzhan Utembaev arrested and reportedly admitted ordering killing of Sarsenbaev out of “personal enmity”. 5 members of state security service charged with kidnapping and killing, prompting resignation of agency’s head. Opposition suggested Utembaev being used as scapegoat; called for resignation of Senate Speaker Nurtai Abykaev and questioning of president’s daughter, parliamentarian Dariga Nazarbaeva, and her husband Deputy FM Rakhat Aliyevis. Around 1,000 marched in Almaty in memory of Sarsenbaev. U.S. FBI assisting Kazakh government in investigation after request for assistance. Kyrgyzstan Power struggle between President Bakiev and parliament escalated as powerful parliamentary speaker Omurbek Tekebaev resigned after telling Bakiev to “hang himself”. Bakiev had earlier accused parliament of obstruction and corruption. 2 senior security officials sacked by Bakiev for alleged failure to combat organised crime and corruption. Incident between teenage gangs in Iskra escalated into communal clash between Kyrgyz and Chinese Dungan villagers, leaving 20 injured and raising broader concerns about interethnic relations. Government reportedly to ask U.S. to pay massive rent increase for use of Manas military base. Court rejected asylum of 2 Uzbek refugees now likely to be deported despite UNHCR appeal. Tajikistan Trial of ex-commander of presidential guard Gaffor Mirzoyev on charges including plotting government overthrow resumed 14 February. Supreme Court suspended corrective labour sentence against Mukhtor Boqizoda, chief editor of opposition newspaper Nerui Sukhan. Turkmenistan Rare protests held after government pension cuts left quarter of all pensioners without benefits. Uzbekistan Trials of opposition Sunshine Coalition leaders Nigora Khidoyatova and Sanjar Umarov continued with activists reportedly unable to access “open trials”: Khidoyatova sentenced to 10 years prison 1 March. 10 Uzbeks seeking refuge in Ukraine after May 2005 Andijon massacre deported back, while Kyrgyzstan’s Supreme Court rejected asylum of 2 others, now likely to be deported despite UNHCR appeal. Rights activist who reported on Andijon sentenced to 7 years. Latin America & Caribbean Bolivia President Morales threatened protests if congress refused talks on rewriting constitution and continued push towards nationalisation of natural gas industry. Morales controversially re-elected as leader of largest coca farmers union despite indicating would step down from post; later met with U.S. ambassador to discuss drugs issue. Colombia Controversy over government’s alleged links to paramilitaries continued with 2 congresswomen expelled from pro-Uribe party (in addition to 5 expelled in January). 2,500 AUC paramilitaries gave up weapons in ceremony 2 February but arrest warrants issued for 2 demobilised leaders. UN report criticised Justice and Peace legislation and questioned true extent of AUC disarmament; also reported rise in extrajudicial executions by security forces. Second round of exploratory talks held with ELN rebels in Cuba; government officially recognised ELN delegation and agreed to suspend capture orders for 2 ELN leaders to build trust; third round set for April. Military launched bombing raids on Macarena National Park after FARC rebels killed 6 police involved in coca eradication operation. FARC killed 9 civilians and 7 town council members in separate attacks in Caqueta and Huila regions. Head of military resigned after allegations officers tortured 21 recruits. Ecuador Security forces clashed with Colombian FARC rebels near border 18 February after destroying alleged FARC camp. Diplomatic row with Colombia after Colombian helicopter entered Ecuadorian airspace in pursuit of rebels without permission end January. Row worsened as Colombia accused Ecuador of allowing guerrillas to launch attacks across border. State oil firm suspended exports after violent demonstration in Napo province shut key pipeline 21 February. 2 journalists killed in separate incidents in Guayaquil. Venezuela Bush administration and Chavez continued to exchange criticism, with both expelling diplomats early February. Sec. State Rice accused Chavez of being menace to Latin American democracy. President Chavez announced intention to increase weapons purchases. Haiti Former President René Préval declared winner of long- awaited 7 February presidential and parliamentary elections with just over 51% of vote. Voting generally peaceful after chaotic start, with 63% participation despite long lines and distances to polling stations: 3 died, including 1 police officer. Voting irregularities slowed vote count and triggered days of mass protests throughout country calling for Préval to be declared winner without run-off vote. Préval officially declared winner 15 February, after authorities reached deal on allocation of blank ballots; main rivals disputed results. UN Security Council renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate for 6 months. Peru Preparations continued for 9 April presidential and legislative elections. Shining Path guerrilla commander Hector Aponte, believed responsible for killing 8 police in December 2005, killed in shootout with security forces. Middle East & North Africa Israel/Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas asked Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh to form new Palestinian Authority (PA) government 21 February. Hamas rejected Abbas’ call to pursue exclusively peaceful methods of resistance but left open question of respecting existing agreements. Hamas leaders pursued international recognition, visiting Egypt, Qatar, Turkey; received invitation to Moscow. Israel vowed to sever remaining relations with PA, although interim PM Olmert did not rule out negotiations. Israeli government prevented new Palestinian legislature from meeting 18 February, characterised PA as “terrorist entity”, and instituted sanctions including halt to monthly transfer of tax revenues collected on behalf of PA. Hamas called on Arab and Muslim states to make up shortfall. EU announced aid package of €120 million to avoid breakdown of administration. Violence escalated with 8 killed in Israeli raids on Palestinian towns and villages in West Bank, clashes between youths and Israeli troops, and air strikes on Gaza militants. Protesters threw stones at headquarters of international observers in Hebron and EU offices in Gaza in protest at European publication of caricatures of Prophet Mohammed. Lebanon First anniversary of assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri marked 14 February: son and parliament majority leader Saad Hariri branded President Lahoud agent of Syria during mass rally. Major political parties continued efforts to remove Lahoud. 5 pro-Syrian ministers ended their boycott of government after PM characterised Hizbollah guerrillas as national resistance fighters and not militias, allowing them to retain arms. Israeli aircraft and artillery attacked suspected Hizbollah positions in south 3 February after guerrillas attacked military post in border Shebaa Farms area, in retaliation for Israeli troop shooting of teenager inside Lebanese territory. Protests against Danish cartoons of Prophet Mohammed led to burning of Denmark’s Beirut consulate, accidental death of 1 protester and resignation of Interior Minister Hassan Sabei. Syria Opposition showed signs of unity: former Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam and exiled leader of Muslim Brotherhood Ali Bayanouni agreed to form joint plan of action to topple President Bashar al-Assad. Opposition unanimously rejected $5 million U.S. funding program for NGOs working on issues related to “core democratic values”. Government reshuffle saw hardliner Faruq al-Shara removed from long-standing position as FM and sworn in as vice president. Serge Brammertz, head of UN investigation into killing of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri, met new FM Walid al-Muallim to discuss further investigations. Security forces clashed with armed Islamist group on outskirts of Damascus, killing group’s leader. Norwegian and Danish embassies attacked in Damascus in protest at Danish cartoons of Prophet Mohammed. Bahrain Human rights groups expressed concern at 2-year sentence given to 12 activists for unauthorised anti- government gathering in December 2005. Iran U.S. Sec. State Rice said Iran in “open defiance” of international community; asked Congress for $75 million to fund dissident groups and media. Inconclusive talks held 20-22 February in Moscow on Russian compromise plan to enrich uranium for Iran. Natanz nuclear plant, location of uranium conversion facility, reopened 13 February. UN Security Council debate on Iran due 6 March. Violent protests against European publication of cartoons depicting Prophet Mohammed targeted several European embassies. Iraq Fears grew of descent into full-scale civil war as sectarian violence escalated and political negotiations over composition of new government increasingly characterised by pursuit of narrowly-defined ethnic and sectarian interests. Bombing of Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samara 22 February set off worst sectarian violence of U.S. occupation. Massive demonstrations, reprisal attacks and suicide bombings followed; estimates put death toll at 800. Surge in violence prompted talks between Sunni and Shiite leaders who promised to work together. Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) sought coalition partners to form new majority government but agreement with Kurdish, Sunni Arab and secular parties remained elusive. Interim PM Jaafari selected as UIA candidate for prime minister; requires two-thirds parliamentary approval for cabinet. U.S. intensified effort to bring Sunni Arabs into political process; U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad issued thinly-veiled threat to restrict U.S. aid should new government include politicians with “sectarian agenda”. Saudi Arabia Failed attack on Abqaiq oil installation 24 February claimed by al-Qaeda, led to shootout with security forces. 5 militants including suspected head of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia killed. Yemen Fighting reported in northwest between government troops and tribesmen, killing 30. Jailbreak of 13 al-Qaeda members seen as serious blow to security efforts. Algeria Government provisionally approved amnesty plan 21 February extending rebel surrender deadline and providing compensation to families of those killed or who disappeared during civil war. U.S. Defense Sec. Rumsfeld met President Bouteflika in 3-day North Africa tour, stating intention to deepen military and counter-terrorism ties. Reaction to Danish cartoons depicting Prophet Mohammed caused media upheaval: 2 reportedly pro-Islamist newspaper editors arrested and their publications banned after reprinting cartoons, while several journalists dismissed from state television. Egypt Parliament voted to delay local elections by 2 years. Move, criticised by U.S., seen as effort to block Islamists from fielding presidential candidates in any elections before 2008 due to local council role in presidential nomination process. 4 prominent independent judges stripped of immunity and charged with “insulting and defaming” state after they called for international investigation into judicial vote-rigging in parliamentary elections. 1 killed in sectarian rioting in Luxor over church demolition, while 8 injured in Christian-Muslim clash in Al-Ayat village. Libya At least 10 killed in riots outside Italian consulate in Benghazi 17 February after Italian reform minister Roberto Calderoli appeared on television wearing t-shirt depicting Danish newspaper cartoons of Prophet Mohammed. Libyan Interior Minister Nasr al-Mabrouk suspended as investigation launched into police conduct during riots. Mauritania 7 men suspected of links with Algerian “Armed Islamic Group” being held without trial. Western Sahara Polisario Front rejected Moroccan proposal to UN that territory become autonomous part of Morocco, insisting only self-determination referendum could bring lasting solution. Floods in Algeria devastated Western Saharan refugee camps, leaving 50,000 homeless. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ (c) 2006 International Crisis Group

The Faulds Lecture, Warren Wilson College, Swannanoa, North Carolina, March, 1987 Revised for the Annual Meeting of the American Anthropological Association, 1987 Occasional Paper of the Montreal Institute for Genocide Studies, April 1989 © 1987 Gregory H. Stanton This lecture in 1987 was the first public presentation of Dr. Gregory H. Stanton's path-breaking Stages of Genocide model of the genocidal process. It was the basis of his paradigmatic Eight Stages of Genocide memo for the US State Department in 1996. It is the basis of the Ten Stages of Genocide model currently used for genocide prediction and prevention by Genocide Watch. April 17, 1975 was a day of hope and horror for the people of Cambodia. It was the day the Khmer Rouge Communists rolled into Phnom Penh and took control of the government. Cheering people lined the streets hoping for peace. What they got instead was horror--one of the worst genocides in human history. Premeditated murder. Genocide as state policy. Intentional killing of all "class enemies," elimination of cities and city dwellers, destruction of every ethnic and religious minority, mass murder of the Eastern Zone of Democratic Kampuchea, execution of all teachers, doctors, lawyers, soldiers and government officials. If you wore glasses, or could speak a foreign language, or were educated, you were classified as an enemy; were arrested, tortured, then killed. From 1975 through 1978, according to censuses taken by the Cambodian Genocide Project in Cambodian villages, 1.7 million to 2.2 million people died out of a population of eight million. Half a million to a million were intentionally murdered. Another million were starved or worked to death in the forced labor communes the Khmer Rouge imposed at gunpoint in every region of the country. The horror began even before April 17, 1975, in regions controlled by the Khmer Rouge. People who lived in Prey Veng, Svay Rieng, Takeo, and other provinces that fell in 1972 tell of the mass murders that began in those provinces even then. The blue-print for the Khmer Rouge revolution, the Mein Kampf of Kampuchea, was written in 1956 by Khieu Samphan, in his Ph.D. dissertation in economics at a French university. Khieu Samphan and his close friends, Pol Pot (a.k.a. Saloth Sar) and Ieng Sary were all members of the French Communist party while they were students in France. It was and is a Marxist-Leninist party. It was also Stalinist. The Khmer Rouge leaders read the Marxist theorists of the day, people like Jean-Paul Sartre, Andre Gunder Frank, and Mao-Tse-tung. And they planned a Communist revolution to put their ideas into practice. Later, when the Maoist cultural revolution wreaked terror in China, they wholeheartedly added its radical equalitarianism to their own. Marxism-Leninism (and its Maoist variant) teaches that revolutions must be violent, that class struggles are inevitable, and that class enemies must be crushed. In every Communist revolution so far, crushed means killed. Apologists for Communist revolutions like to use euphemisms like purged, eliminated, or liquidated. Euphemisms allow people to avoid thinking; they are shields against consciousness; earplugs to shut out the screams of the murdered and the cries of the conscience. I will not use euphemisms here. In Democratic Kampuchea, the Khmer Rouge murdered about two million people. In this paper I will begin to explain why and how the Pol Pot regime committed this genocide. I have spent much of the past eight years working to bring the Khmer Rouge leaders to justice for their crimes. I will describe what interviews with survivors inside Cambodia have revealed about the first two operations in the genocidal process: classification and symbolization. Classification and Symbolization At the beginning of their planning for the Holocaust, the National Socialists in Germany passed detailed laws defining membership in the Jewish race, and then conducted inquiries to identify who were members of the race. Later, they decreed that each Jew had to wear a yellow star. It was a symbolic marker. It signified that this person was not to be seen as an individual person but as a member of a class, a classification determined by religion and "race." The yellow star marked a classification of people the Nazis had decided to kill. The ultimate depersonalization--murder, killing persons--was preceded by the depersonalization of classification and symbolization, the Nuremberg laws and the yellow star. The Khmer Rouge classified, too. First, they classified people as "base people"--people under Khmer Rouge control before April 17, 1975 -- and new people -- mostly city people. They had read André Gunder Frank's Marxist theory that cities are parasitic on the countryside, that only labor value is true value, that cities extract surplus value from the rural areas. Therefore, immediately after they took power, the Khmer Rouge evacuated all the cities at gunpoint. Patients in hospitals in the middle of operations were forced to leave, and to die. Women in labor were made to get up and walk and their new babies died in the scorching sun. A whole infant ward at the Calmette Hospital was abandoned when the Khmer Rouge forced the staff to leave. The ward became a mass grave. The new people were marked for heavier labor, less food, and much harsher treatment than the base people. Children were taken away from their parents and forced to work in children's brigades. If a new person complained of the food shortages and slave labor, he or she was taken away to the killing fields. In 1976, people were reclassified as full rights (base) people, candidates, and depositees --so called because they included most of the new people who had been deposited from the cities into the communes. Depositees were marked for destruction. Their rations were reduced to two bowls of rice soup per day. Hundreds of thousands starved. The Khmer Rouge leadership boasted over their radio station that only one or two million people out of the population were needed to build the new agrarian communist utopia. As for the others, as their proverb put it, "if they survive no gain, if they die, no loss." Hundreds of thousands of the new people, and later the depositees, were taken out, shackled, to dig their own mass graves. Then the Khmer Rouge soldiers beat them to death with iron bars and hoes or buried them alive. A Khmer Rouge extermination prison directive ordered, "Bullets are not to be wasted." The Khmer Rouge also classified by religion and ethnic group. They abolished all religion and dispersed minority groups, forbidding them to speak their languages or to practice their customs. The Cham Muslims were especially singled out for murder. A Central Committee directive ordered, "The Cham nation no longer exists on Kampuchean soil belonging to the Khmer. Accordingly, the Cham nationality, language, customs and religious beliefs must be immediately abolished. Those who fail to obey this order will suffer all the consequences for their acts of opposition to Angkar," the Khmer Rouge high command. Whole Cham villages were murdered. Cham children were taken away from their parents and raised as Khmers. Chams were not, permitted to speak their language. Though Muslims, they were forced to eat pork. Their leaders were killed. "We drank tears," said a Cham to me. Most Chams were classified as "new people" because they were Cham. Censuses I have taken in Cham villages-show that a quarter to a third, over a hundred thousand of them, died out of a pre-Khmer Rouge population of about 200,000. There is evidence that the Khmer Rouge planned to kill the rest of the Cham and were only stopped by the Vietnamese invasion on Christmas Day of 1978. The Khmer Rouge also disrobed all Buddhist monks, subjected them to brutal forced labor and wiped out the practice of Buddhism. They did the same to Christianity, leaving only one Khmer pastor, who survived only because he hid his identity. Chinese and Vietnamese minorities were also marked for murder. Perhaps the most massive murder of all was committed on the population of the Eastern zone of Democratic Kampuchea in 1978, in the provinces of Svay Rieng, Prey Veng and parts of Kandal and Kompong Cham near the Vietnamese border. The Khmer Rouge leaders declared the entire population of this region to have "Khmer bodies, but Vietnamese heads." In 1978 most of the Eastern zone people were evacuated to other provinces where they were placed in forced labor communes, then systematically underfed and overworked, often to death. Many were murdered outright. Blue Scarves In December, 1986, while interviewing witnesses in that region with Australian historian Ben Kiernan, we made a dramatic discovery of the symbolic means the Khmer Rouge leaders used to mark Eastern zone people for extermination. It is the clinching proof that the Eastern zone genocide was ordered by the Khmer Rouge leadership in Phnom Penh. The people of the Eastern zone were evacuated up the rivers and roads to Phnom Penh, then sent onward to other provices. At Phnom Penh, the Khmer Rouge issued every man, woman and child from the Eastern zone a new blue and white checked scarf, a “kroma.” The Khmer Rouge then required them to wear the scarf at all times. "Other people wore red and white or yellow and white scarves, but weren't allowed to wear blue and white scarves," Huy Rady, an eye-witness explained. "People from the Eastern zone would be known by their scarf If you were wearing a blue scarf, they would kill you. There was a plan to kill all the Eastern zone people. They were not going to spare any of them." The blue scarf was the yellow star. It was a symbol of a classification made by the Khmer Rouge Central Committee and imposed by its own cadres in Phnom Penh. It is the clearest evidence we have yet gathered of the genocidal intent of the Khmer Rouge. As a witness told me, "I have seen the Khmer Rouge come to a place and take away the people with blue scarves. Every day was a killing day. They put on a killing sign. " Chhun Vun of lower Neak Leung village explained, "They could tell who was an Eastern zone person. No one else wore blue scarves. The blue scarves were distributed to us directly by Pol Pot's Standing Group, the Permanent Committee of the Party. They distributed them to everyone of the Eastern Zone. The scarves were distributed as a sign in Phnom Penh city at Chbar Ampeou." I asked Chhun Vun, "If a Pursat base person wanted to wear a blue scarf would the Khmer Rouge permit it?" He answered, "They were absolutely not allowed to wear the clothes of the Eastern Zone people. They planned to kill us all." The Stages of the Genocidal Process It is human to classify. Indeed, structural linguists who follow Roman Jakobson believe that classification and combination are the two fundamental operations of the human mind. We classify whenever we name something or describe someone. Human beings are the symbol-using animal; in symbolizing, we classify. But our symbols and our classifications are made, are invented, by us. They are our product. They are abstractions away from the concrete reality of the world of persons. The problem is not that we humans classify. It is that we treat the classifications as if they had ultimate reality. We forget that it is we who made the classifications and we treat our abstractions as if they were concrete. To use Whitehead's term, we misplace concreteness. We human beings overvalue our abstractions and tum them against other persons and even against ourselves. Like the nuclear weapons and guns we have invented because of our extraordinary ability to symbolize, we turn our own creations, our own symbolic classifications, against ourselves. And we kill with them. Classifications and symbolizations that define group boundaries and that exclude people who are enemies are by nature depersonalizing. Totalitarian regimes like the Khmer Rouge are regimes of ultimate depersonalization. Even the leaders referred to themselves as Brother Number One and Brother Number Two in their orders to the Director of the Tuol Sleng extermination prison. Genocide is defined in the international convention for the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, as "the intentional destruction in whole or in part of a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such." The Khmer Rouge committed genocide when they classified the Cham Muslims, the Buddhist monks, Christians, and other groups as class enemies and then destroyed them. They may also have committed legal genocide, and certainly committed politicide, a crime against humanity, by classifying part of the Democratic Kampuchean national group, the people of the Eastern Zone, as enemies, marking them with blue scarves, and marching them to their deaths. Classification and symbolization are the first two operations in the genocidal process. Later operations, which may be both concurrent and sequential, are vilification (dehumanization), organization, polarization, preparation, and extermination. Vilification (dehumanization), the third stage of genocide, is the process by which members of a class are designated as enemies. The Nazis vilified Jews as subhuman rats and vermin. In the Tuol Sleng extermination prison, people -- persons -- were photographed with numbers and forced to "confess" they were animals, not persons, before being murdered by the guards. People of the Eastern Zone were vilified as possessing corrupt, enemy Vietnamese minds. Organization, the fourth stage of genocide, is necessary because genocide is a group crime. In Cambodia, the Khmer Rouge literally referred to their “party center” as the Angkar, the “organization.” Orders came from a shadowy authority, a supernatural force, not individuals. Polarization, the fifth stage of genocide, is a strategy of all genocidal regimes, used to target people they designate as “enemies of the people” “traitors,” “collaborators”, or “counter-revolutionaries.” Genocidal regimes have a need to conduct internal purges of their own ranks to identify and blame members of their regime they suspect of causing the inevitable failures of totalitarian rule. That is why many of the victims at the infamous Tuol Sleng extermination prison in Phnom Penh, which killed at least 14,000 people, were cadres from the Khmer Rouge themselves. Preparation, the sixth, penultimate stage of genocide, is the operation when extermination prisons are built and members of vilified groups (class enemies, the Cham, people from: the Eastern zone) are identified and are transported to them. It is the moment when Dr. Mengele, the Doctor of Death, beckons to those who are doomed. One of the striking needs of the genocidal mind is the need for orderly determination of who will be included in the groups to be killed. The Nazis kept meticulous records of their crimes, including records of those classified and identified for murder, the lists of the damned. The Khmer Rouge, too, kept voluminous records in their extermination prisons, and tortured their victims to reveal names of others in the network of class enemies. They photographed each victim of the Tuol Sleng prison, including the children. Kinship identification was enough for condemnation to death, since it was Khmer Rouge policy to kill entire families. The stated purpose was to prevent later bitterness toward the Angkar by the children of enemies who had been executed. The seventh, final criminal stage of genocide is Extermination. The individuals identified as members of vilified groups are taken to the killing fields and murdered. At this stage a strange means rationality takes over, an ethic of efficiency. The most efficient, lowest cost method of mass murder is preferred and bureaucracies are organized to administer the murder in an orderly, "rational" way. The SS chose an ordinary insecticide, Zyklon B, as the lowest cost, most efficient means of exterminating the Jewish "vermin". The Khmer Rouge murder weapons of choice were ordinary hoes and iron bars. The victims were tied together in a line, and forced to kneel at the edge of mass graves they had been forced to dig. Then the Khmer Rouge guards beat each victim to death by blows to the skull, severing the spinal cord. In Kandal and Kompong Speu provinces, along with the many mass graves filled with thousands of bodies (Choeng Ek--8000, Tonle Bati--4000, etc.), there are unfilled mass graves prepared for thousands of additional victims. The planning necessary to efficiently dispose of bodies requires a pathological order, a bureaucracy of death. As Max Weber pointed out, even the most irrational end can be pursued by rational means. The “ends- justifies- the- means” mentality of Marxism-Leninism and of all other totalitarian ideologies is what makes them so radically evil. Kierkegaard's "teleological suspension of the ethical" is taken to its extreme. In the name of creating a perfect new world, all morality is suspended, all persons are merely means to the end. Class enemies are to be killed. Genocide is the pattern of human history, not its aberration. More people have died from genocides in this century than from all the wars combined. There are many types of genocides. Many of them are national, ethnical, racial, or religious like those committed against the Jews, the Native Americans, the Armenians, the Bengalis in Bangladesh/East Pakistan, the Hutu in Burundi, and countless others. But the most massive genocides of our century have been part of politicides committed by totalitarian regimes, by National Socialists and Marxist-Leninists. Two million murdered in Cambodia. Three million intentionally starved to death in the Ukraine. Sixty million murdered in the Soviet Union. Twenty-five million murdered under Mao. In those regimes the genocidal process has been glorified by ideology, by the Nazi doctrine of the master race and the Aryan nation, by the Marxist-Leninist doctrine of class enemies and communism. For the future of mankind, anthropologists must make the study, the understanding, and the conquest of genocide a central goal of our vocation. Our understanding of the processes of classification and symbolization will be a key to attacking genocide yet to come, to preventing genocide, the scourge of humanity. Dr. Gregory H. Stanton is Assistant Professor of Law and of Anthropology, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, Virginia and Founder and Director, The Cambodian Genocide Project. cite as "Blue Scarves and Yellow Stars:Classification and Symbolization in the Cambodian Genocide" by Dr. Gregory H. Stanton. The Faulds Lecture, Warren Wilson College, Swannanoa, North Carolina, March, 1987; Revised for the Annual Meeting of the American Anthropological Association, 1987; Occasional Paper of the Montreal Institute for Genocide Studies, April 1989. www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/1987/03/14/Blue-Scarves-and-Yellow-Stars-Classification-and-Symbolization-in-the-Cambodian-Genocide Copyright 1987 Gregory H. Stanton