Burundi Country Report: November 2025
- Genocide Watch
- 9 minutes ago
- 3 min read
By Larisa Chikanya
Following June 2025 parliamentary elections, Burundi remains under the consolidated rule of President Évariste Ndayishimiye and the National Council for the Defence of Democracy–Forces for the Defence of Democracy(CNDD–FDD) party. In those elections, the ruling party secured nearly all parliamentary seats, effectively eliminating meaningful political opposition. This political dominance has intensified the suppression of civil liberties, including the exclusion of opposition parties from governance, the curtailing of independent media, and widespread reports of arbitrary arrests and disappearances.
Burundi’s cycles of violence are rooted in colonial manipulation of ethnic divisions between the Hutu and Tutsi populations. Following independence in 1962, successive massacres occurred in 1972 and 1988 and during the 1993–2005 civil war, entrenching collective trauma and mistrust. In 2000, the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement sought to establish ethnic power-sharing and end large-scale killings, but its implementation has eroded over time as CNDD-FDD dominance deepened and opposition spaces shrank.
Targeted violence against opposition members, activists, and journalists has increased, signaling potential escalation if current trends persist. While there have been no reports of mass killings in 2025, the combination of legal and political marginalization, hate speech, and the use of youth militias to intimidate dissenters reflect a pattern consistent with the early stages of genocide.
The June 2025 parliamentary elections consolidated CNDD–FDD dominance, as the party won 96.5% of seats amid widespread allegations of fraud and intimidation. During the election period, observers report a surge in human rights violations, including at least 200 cases of sexual violence, 58 enforced disappearances, 62 acts of torture, nearly 900 arbitrary detentions, and more than 600 extrajudicial executions that were reported by United Nations experts. These acts were often linked to the intelligence service and the ruling party’s youth militia, the Imbonerakure. In August 2025 alone, monitoring by ACAT-Burundi documented 11 murders, seven abductions, and five cases of torture.
Given these developments, continuous monitoring is essential. Key areas of concern include the restriction of political freedoms, targeting of opposition actors, and the use of state or militia violence to consolidate power.Burundi’s trajectory underlines the importance of early warning and proactive measures to prevent the escalation of mass atrocities. To mitigate the risks, it will be crucial to sustain preventative diplomatic engagement, support for local civil society organizations, and vigilance regarding human rights abuses.
Due to the government’s systematic repression of opposition members, the Imbonerakure’s continued involvement in violence and intimidation, and the persistent ethnic and political polarization reinforced by state rhetoric, Genocide Watch considers Burundi to be at Stage 5: Organization. The criminalization of dissent, restrictions on media and civil society, and impunity for past atrocities place Burundi at Stage 6: Polarization. The government’s denial of accountability for crimes committed since 2015, alongside its refusal to engage with international investigations, maintains Stage 10: Denial, sustaining the country’s long-term risk of mass atrocity.
Genocide Watch recommends:
The Government of Burundi should restore political pluralism by reopening civic space and ensuring credible electoral processes.
The Government of Burundi must end arbitrary arrests, torture, and enforced disappearances, and hold security forces and militias accountable.
Measures to strengthen judicial independence and protect civil liberties are crucial.
Efforts to promote social cohesion between communities, combined with support for survivors of abuse, are vital to rebuilding trust.
The Government of Burundi should cooperate with regional and international partners to address border insecurity and reduce risks that violence could spread to other countries.
