Ethiopia Country Report
- Genocide Watch
- 2 hours ago
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Country Report: Ethiopia
April 2026
By Grace Harris
Once again, fears of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the rise, currently surrounding the contested issue of access to the Red Sea. Their fragile alliance in 2018, forged after decades of conflict, earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a Nobel Peace Prize. However, relations soon broke down in the aftermath of conflict in Tigray.
With tensions on the rise, there is a real risk of further escalation. After initially seeking mediation, leaders have since traded hostile rhetoric over coastal access. Ethiopia has threatened military action to seize Eritrea’s southernmost Assab port, presenting a show of force through military promotions and graduation ceremonies, while using social media to spread the narrative that it is reclaiming an unjust loss. Eritrea, in response, has framed this as a legally-settled issue and accused Ethiopia of inciting conflict.
In the Amhara region, in 2024, regional forces arrested thousands of people in a campaign of mass arbitrary detentions targeting Amharans. While hundreds were released in 2025, thousands remain detained. Alongside active conflict with the Fano militia in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, state-sanctioned violence in anti-insurgency crackdowns in both regions has led to civilian massacres in 2023 and 2024, and by order of a recently-revealed secret committee.
Beyond this, the legacy of atrocities in the Tigray region of Ethiopia remains central. Five years on, there has been no accountability for perpetrators of the genocide of Tigrayans during Ethiopia’s 2020-2022 civil war. An extensive 2024 New Lines Institute report confirms this assessment and provides evidence that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces together committed genocide in Tigray. Today, Tigrayans face discriminatory treatment such as arbitrary detentions and restrictions on movement. There remains an urgent need for justice and accountability, and many have expressed fears of a violent resurgence. Any future conflict will have heightened risks of genocide and mass atrocity crimes. Around 800,000 people remain internally displaced in Tigray, and they rely on informal support networks amidst irregular food distribution, medicine shortages, and aid cuts.
An attempted regional coup in Tigray in March 2025 adds further complexity to the dynamics in Ethiopia. A rival faction of the TPLF overtook the mayor’s office and supplanted provincial government positions. The lasting effects of this internal power struggle are significant in wider considerations of Ethiopian stability and security. Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea of colluding with the TPLF, complicated by the emerging internal divisions within the TPLF and by Ethiopia’s recent admission that Eritrean forces massacred civilians during the war in Tigray. The state of Ethiopia still does not recognize its own complicity and role in these atrocities.
Due to violence against civilians in regional conflicts, escalating tensions, and continued denial of atrocities committed in Tigray, Genocide Watch considers Ethiopia to be at Stage 3: Discrimination, Stage 5: Organization, and Stage 10: Denial.
Genocide Watch recommends that:
States and other parties should charge Ethiopia with violation of the United Nations Genocide Convention in the International Court of Justice for genocide in Tigray.
The U.N. Human Rights Council should appoint a Fact-Finding Mission to investigate massacres and other atrocities committed by the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies and regional militias.
The U.N. and African Union should host mediations between the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments.
