Genocide Warning: Russian Incitement against the Baltics
- Genocide Watch
- 5 minutes ago
- 3 min read
March 2026
By Vladimir Kovtun
Genocide Watch is issuing a genocide alert on Russia’s incitement against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Russia has begun an information campaign regarding the Baltic countries which is similar to its propaganda strategy against Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this constitutes a “phase zero” that lays the ideological groundwork for war. Though Russia has not explicitly called for the extermination of the Baltic people, Russia’s incendiary rhetoric is approaching the level of a “Direct and public incitement to commit Genocide,” defined as a punishable act by Article III of the United Nations (U.N.) Genocide Convention.
First and foremost, Russia’s narrative claims that the Baltic states are reportedly working to eliminate the Russian-speaking populations within their borders. To back up this claim, they tend to cite laws such as the ban on Russian language education, even as a second language in school. Indeed, the Baltic states are actively trying to reduce the role of the Russian language in their societies, with Latvia and Estonia actively ending Russian language education. However, Russia uses this fact to push sensationalist narratives that the Baltic states are pursuing ethnocide against Russians.
This claim has been invoked to advance the idea that the Baltics are actively following national socialist (NS) ideology. The Russian Duma has passed a law comparing Latvia’s actions to “The Third Reich,” and Russian-linked figures in Latvia claim that the government’s next steps could be to “create a closed area for Russians” or “ban Russian names.” The Russian Foreign Ministry itself alleges that Latvia’s government is “aggressively imposing a Nazi cult” and that the Baltic states actively celebrate NS ideology. It must be noted that there is no backing to Russia’s claims, and Latvia has been found not to have discriminatory laws against Russians that break the European Convention on Human Rights. This, in effect, is dehumanization, as it provides the same moral justification used in Russian propaganda for atrocities against Ukrainians. This “accusation in a mirror” works to justify atrocities by concocting an existential threat which makes planned actions seem logical rather than morally abhorrent.
Similar to its actions before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has built a historical narrative minimizing the Baltic states’ case for independence from Russia. In 2025, Professor Maxim Grigorev of the Moscow Institute for International Relations (MGIMO), Russia’s top research university, published the book “The History of Lithuania,” which emphasized early Lithuania’s inherent position in the Russian sphere and claimed that Lithuania’s official narrative of its founding is mythical. The book’s foreword was written by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who celebrated its challenge against “False narratives.”
Finally, Russia’s narratives assert that the Baltic states are actively aggressing against Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov has claimed that Lithuania is blocking access to Kaliningrad (a Russian enclave located between Lithuania and Poland) so as to elicit a Russian reaction and a NATO response. Similar allegations were used to justify the invasion of Ukraine. These narratives have also contributed to the spread of hate speech, with Vladimir Solovyov, a famous news anchor on state TV channel Russia 1, calling for Russia to “obliterate the Baltics.” It seems that Russia is suggesting that a casus belli for war already exists, normalizing war for Russians.
Based on Genocide Watch President Gregory Stanton’s Ten Stages of Genocide, Genocide Watch assesses that Russia is engaging in Stage 1: Classification and Stage 2: Dehumanization of the Baltic states and their people.
To prevent this incitement from translating into atrocities, Genocide Watch recommends:
Provide the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) with greater resources to counter propaganda in the Baltics, aiming to weaken Russia’s stranglehold on the local Russian diaspora.
Strengthen European Union-level coordination mechanisms to disrupt illicit financial networks used to sustain Russian intelligence networks.
Reverse policies ending Russian language education in the Baltics, in favor of continuing to protect minority languages in order to mitigate local grievances. This has been shown to stop intercommunal conflict.
