By Paul Gregoire 3 January 2025 United Liberation Movement for West Papua provisional government interim president Benny Wenda warns that since Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto took office in October, he’s been proven right in having remarked, after the politician’s last February election, that his coming marks the return of “the ghost of Suharto”: the brutal dictator who ruled over the nation for three decades. Wenda, an exiled West Papuan leader, outlined in a 16 December statement that at that moment the Indonesian forces were carrying out ethnic cleansing in multiple regencies , as thousands of West Papuans were being forced out of their villages and into the bush by soldiers. The entire regency of Oksop had been emptied, with over 1,200 West Papuans displaced since an escalation began in Nduga regency in 2018 . Prabowo coming to top office has a particular foreboding for the West Papuans, who’ve been occupied by Indonesia since 1963, as over his military career – which spanned from 1970 to 1998 and saw rise him to the position of general, as well as mainly serve in Kopassus (special forces) – the current president perpetrated multiple alleged atrocities across East Timor and West Papua. According to Wenda, the incumbent Indonesian president can “never clean the blood from his hands for his crimes as a general in West Papua and East Timor” and he further makes clear that Prabowo’s acts since taking office reveal that he is set on “creating a new regime of brutality” in the country of his birth. Enhancing the occupation “Foreign governments should not be fooled by Prabowo’s PR campaign,” Wenda made certain in mid-December. “He is desperately seeking international legitimacy through his international tour, empty environmental pledges and the amnesty offered to various prisoners, including eighteen West Papuans and the remaining imprisoned members of the Bali Nine.” Former Indonesian president Suharto ruled over the Southeast Asian nation with an iron fist from 1967 until 1998. In the years prior to his officially taking office, General Suharto oversaw the mass murder of up to 1 million local Communists, he further rigged the 1969 referendum on self-determination for West Papua , so it failed and he invaded East Timor in 1975. Wenda maintains that the proof Prabowo is something of an apparition of Suharto is that he’s set about forging “mass displacement, increased militarisation” and “increased deforestation” in the Melanesian region of West Papua. And he’s further restarted the transmigration program of the Suharto days, which involves Indonesians being moved to West Papua to populate the region. As Wenda advised in 2015, the initial transmigration program resulted in West Papuans, who made up 96 percent of the population in 1971, only comprising 49 percent of those living in their own homelands at that current time. Wenda considers the “occupation was entering a new phase”, when former Indonesian president Joko Widodo split the region of West Papua into five provinces in mid-2022. And the West Papuan leader advises that Prabowo is set to establish separate military commands in each province, which will provide “a new, more thorough and far-reaching system of occupation”. West Papua was previously split into two regions, which the West Papuan people did not recognise, as these and the current five provinces are actually Indonesian administrative zones. “By establishing new administrative divisions, Indonesia creates the pretext for new military posts and checkpoints,” Wenda underscores. “The result is the deployment of thousands more soldiers, curfews, arbitrary arrests and human rights abuses. West Papua is under martial law.” Ecocide on a formidable scale Prabowo paid his first official visit to West Papua as president in November, visiting the Merauke district in South Papua province, which is the site of the world’s largest deforestation project , with clearing beginning in mid-2024, and it will eventually comprise of 2 million deforested hectares turned into giant sugarcane plantations, via the destruction of forests, wetlands and grasslands. Five consortiums, including Indonesian and foreign companies, are involved in the project, with the first seedlings having been planted in July. And despite promises that the megaproject would not harm existing forests, these areas are being torn down regardless. And part of this deforestation includes the razing of forest that had previously been declared protected by the government. A similar program was established in Merauke district in 2011, by Widodo’s predecessor president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who established rice and sugarcane plantations in the region, aiming to turn it into a “future breadbasket for Indonesia”. However, the plan was a failure, and the project was rather used as a cover to establish hazardous palm oil and pulpwood plantations. “It is not a coincidence Prabowo has announced a new transmigration program at the same time as their ecocidal deforestation regime intensifies ,” Wenda said in a November 2024 statement. “These twin agenda represent the two sides of Indonesian colonialism in West Papua: exploitation and settlement.” Wenda added that Jakarta is only interested in West Papuan land and resources, and in exchange, Indonesia has killed at least half a million West Papuans since 1963. And while the occupying nation is funding other projects via the profits it’s been making on West Papuan palm oil, gold and natural gas, the West Papuan provinces are the poorest in the Southeast Asian nation. Independence is still key The 1962 New York Agreement involved the Netherlands, West Papua’s former colonial rulers, signing over the region to Indonesia . A brief United Nations administrative period was to be followed by Jakarta assuming control of the region on 1 May 1963. And part of the agreement was that West Papuans undertake the Act of Free Choice, or a 1969 referendum on self-determination. So, if the West Papuans didn’t vote to become an autonomous nation, then Indonesian administration would continue. However, the UN brokered referendum is now referred to as the Act of No Choice, as it only involved 1,026 West Papuans, handpicked by Indonesia. And under threat of violence, all of these men voted to stick with their colonial oppressors. Wenda presented The People’s Petition to the UN Human Rights High Commissioner in January 2019, which calls for a new internationally supervised vote on self-determination for the people of West Papua, and it included the signatures of 1.8 million West Papuans , or 70 percent of the Indigenous population. The exiled West Papuan leader further announced the formation of the West Papua provisional government on 1 December 2020, which involved the establishment of entire departments of government with heads of staff appointed on the ground in the Melanesian province, and Wenda was also named the president of the body. But with the coming of Prabowo and the recent developments in West Papua, it appears the West Papuan struggle is about to intensify at the same time as the movement for independence becomes increasingly more prominent on the global stage. “Every element of West Papua is being systematically destroyed: our land, our people, our Melanesian culture identity,” Wenda said in November, in response to the recommencement of Indonesia’s transmigration program and the massive environment devastation in Merauke. “This is why it is not enough to speak about the Act of No Choice in 1969: the violation of our self-determination is continuous, renewed with every new settlement program, police crackdown, or ecocidal development.” © Copyright 2007 - 2025 Sydney Criminal Lawyers®

By Ananda Teresia 22 Jan 2025 Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto salutes during a welcoming ceremony at the government palace, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Lima, Peru November 14, 2024. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights JAKARTA, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto is considering pardons for prisoners linked to armed organisations in the restive easternmost province of Papua, including separatists, providing they renounce violence and abandon secessionist agendas, a senior minister said on Wednesday. Prabowo plans to grant amnesty to those convicted and awaiting trial if they pledge loyalty to the Indonesian state and "stop all activities aimed to separate Papua from Indonesia", senior minister for law and human rights affairs, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, told Reuters. The government is drawing up lists of individuals eligible, he said. Most armed criminal groups in Papua province are linked to separatist rebels. "It's going to be a new hope for us in finding a solution in Papua," Yusril added. A low-level battle for independence has been waged in the resource-rich island of Papua since it was brought under Indonesian control following a disputed referendum overseen by the United Nations in 1969 at the end of Dutch colonial rule. Many Papuans have said the outcome did not truly reflect local sentiment. Indonesian security forces have since kept a tight rein on the region and have been accused of human rights abuses, which they deny. Separatists have in recent years managed to acquire better weapons, taken in raids on army posts or sourced from the black market. They have also abducted foreigners, including a New Zealand pilot who was released last year after being held for 19 months . Police last August said another New Zealander was killed by rebels when he landed a helicopter in a remote area. Prabowo plans to pardon 44,000 prisoners including drug offenders and activists jailed in Papua for criticising the government. He has previously said that he might allow people who engaged in graft to go unpunished if they return what they stole. It is also considering parole for two former leaders of the militant network Jemaah Islamiyah and amnesty for its jailed members. © 2025 Reuters

The European Union has appointed Danish diplomat Peter Sorensen as its new special envoy for the stalled Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, starting in February. Sorensen succeeds Miroslav Lajcak and aims to revive talks that collapsed in March 2023 over a failed normalization agreement. With decades of experience in the Western Balkans, Sorensen will work to ease tensions rooted in Kosovo's 2008 independence, which Serbia still refuses to recognize. AFP, January 27, 2025 The Serbian flag, left, flies on a lamppost in front of a Kosovo flag (Image credits:AP) BELGRADE: The European Union on Monday named a new envoy to lead long-stalled talks between Kosovo and Serbia, as tensions continue to flare between the archrivals. Danish diplomat Peter Sorensen will take up the post of EU special representative for the Serbia and Kosovo dialogue beginning in February, according to the bloc. "The tasks of the new EU special representative will be to facilitate the dialogue that will contribute to a comprehensive normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo," the EU said in a statement. Sorensen will be taking the reins from Slovak diplomat Miroslave Lajcak, who has held the post since 2020. Sorensen will be charged with helping revive stalled negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, after talks between the two sides all but collapsed in March 2023 during a summit in North Macedonia. It was there that the two sides failed to sign a normalisation agreement that sought to break a years-long diplomatic deadlock following Kosovo's independence in 2008. Animosity between Kosovo and Serbia has persisted since the war between Serb forces and ethnic Albanian insurgents in the late 1990s in what was the breakaway Serbia province. Kosovo later declared independence, a move that Serbia has never acknowledged. Sorensen, 57, is a diplomatic veteran in the Western Balkans and spent six years working in Kosovo following the war and another five in Serbia, along with stints in Bosnia and North Macedonia. Copyright © 2025 Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd.

Baloch leader Hyrbyair Marri (Photo/ANI) ANI | Updated: Jan 28, 2025 15:02  IST London [UK], January 28 (ANI): Baloch  leader Hyrbyair Marri  brought attention to the ongoing horrors that the Pashtun  and Baloch  communities endure under Pakistan 's repressive control in a stirring statement to the Pashtun  National Council (Jirga). Marri brought attention to the Pakistan i state's systematic exploitation, enforced disappearance s, and violence against various ethnic communities. "The sufferings of the Baloch  and Pashtun  under Pakistan 's occupation are countless and unending," Marri stated, emphasizing the urgent need for unity between the two nations to resist colonial oppression. He recalled previous instances of solidarity, such as the Treaty of Kalat in 1758, in which Afghan and Baloch leaders promised to respect and support one another. He asked both groups to rekindle this spirit in their struggle for independence. Audience during Hyrbyair Marri's statement (Photo/ANI) Marri compared British imperialism to the colonial strategies that Pakistan  acquired. He denounced Pakistan 's continuous military actions in Baloch istan, pointing to unlawful executions, torture, and enforced disappearance s as means of quelling dissent. The Baloch  leader cited the targeted profiling of Pashtun s and killings like the 1948 Barbra event in Charsadda, claiming that these practices were continuations of the British heritage of divide and conquer. Recalling how Pashtun  tribes were utilized as frontline combatants in 1948 while Punjabi elites remained behind, he also denounced Pakistan 's abuse of Baloch  and Pashtun  youth. He also drew attention to the fact that thousands of Baloch  youths were forcibly drafted into the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and sent to die under pretences of religious salvation. Marri condemned Pakistan 's racial profiling of Afghan refugees , primarily Pashtun s, and their forced deportation as a pressure tactic against Afghanistan . "These people have lived here for generations, yet they are treated as disposable," he said. Calling for a renewed alliance between the Baloch  and Pashtun nations, Marri declared, "Our unity is the path to freedom. Together, we will break the chains of occupation and build a future rooted in justice, sovereignty, and peace." (ANI) Copyright © 2025 Asia News International (ANI)

By Panu Wongcha-um , Shoon Naing  and Poppy Mcpherson January 29, 2025 7:23 AM GMT+1 Refugees who fled Myanmar are seen at their stilt houses at Mae La refugee camp, near the Thailand-Myanmar border in Mae Sot district, Tak province, north of Bangkok July 21, 2014. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom/File Photo Summary Clinics ordered to shut by Jan 31, aid workers say Trump's aid freeze causes chaos in global aid sector Thai officials plan patient transfers, assess healthcare needs BANGKOK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Healthcare centres serving tens of thousands of refugees on the Thai-Myanmar border have been ordered shut after U.S. President Donald Trump froze most foreign aid last week, forcing Thai officials to transport the sickest patients to other facilities. The International Rescue Committee (IRC), which funds the clinics with U.S. support, told the facilities to shut by Friday, Jan. 31, according to a local official and two camp committee members. The IRC did not respond to a request for comment. Trump last week paused development assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development for 90 days to assess compatibility with his "America First"  policy. The freeze has thrown the global aid sector, which is heavily funded by the U.S., into chaos. It was not immediately clear what impact a waiver for life-saving humanitarian assistance during the 90-day pause issued by the State Department on Tuesday would have, or how many centres across the nine camps housing some 100,000 people were impacted. The health facilities on the border serve tens of thousands of refugees from conflict-torn Myanmar. Bweh Say, a member of the refugee committee at Mae La camp, in Tha Song Yang district, and a local schoolteacher said on Wednesday the IRC had already discharged patients and stopped people including pregnant women and people with breathing difficulties dependent on oxygen tanks from using their equipment and medicine. The camp’s water distribution and garbage disposal systems, which the organisation had also been helping with, were also affected, they said. Relatives of some of those discharged were "trying to find oxygen tanks" to bring home, Bweh Say said. About 50 patients had been discharged, while several severely ill patients remained in the Mae La hospital, including a child recovering from heart surgery, said the schoolteacher, declining to be named because they were not authorised to speak publicly. "Normally that hospital receives about 100 out-patients per day and now none," the teacher said. Chucheep Pongchai, governor of Tak province, told Thai media that the most severely ill patients would be transferred to local state hospitals, adding that officials have asked the IRC for use of their equipment. Dr Tawatchai Yingtaweesak, Director of Tha Song Yang hospital, said he was travelling to the camp to assess patients. “We have to assess which patients can go home, which patients need help with oxygen and so on,” he told Reuters by phone. Nai Aue Mon, the programme director of the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM), a grassroots organisation in southern Myanmar, said there was growing concern that basic healthcare needs in the camps would go unmet. "It’s scary because these refugees depend entirely on this assistance for their day-to-day health services." Additional reporting by Zaw Naing Oo; Editing by Lincoln Feast. Copyright © 2025 Reuters.

Islamic State affiliate expands control since 2023 coup, killing hundreds of civilians and enslaving women, as media ban allows regime to cover up attacks. Pius Adeleye in Niamey Tues 31 Dec 2024 A camp for internally displaced people in Ouallam, Niger. Jihadist violence has doubled in the 18 months since the coup, with about 1,500 deaths reported . Photograph: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty On 12 December, Hadjara Zibo and her three young daughters ran to the hills from their home in Libiri as armed jihadists stormed their village in Niger’s Tillabéri region, near the border with Burkina Faso and Mali. “If they reached us, they could rape and kill us,” says Zibo, 39, describing how they escaped amid gunfire and flames. The assault on the village left 21 people dead, houses burned and valued possessions plundered. Less than 48 hours later, another 18 people were killed, this time in Kokorou, another settlement in Tillabéri. The Nigerien junta has been struggling to contain the rising tide of jihadist attacks in the tri-border area, 18 months after it seized power. In 2021, the same Islamic militants killed Zibo’s husband on their farm, leaving her alone with the financial struggle of raising three children alone. “They kill men in front of the women,” she says, adding that many women were then forced to become jihadists’ wives or sex slaves. Her sister was abducted by suspected jihadists last June. “I think the end is near,” she says. “Women face horror and humiliation, and with no help from the junta, we are left at the mercy of the jihadists.” An image from a video showing the attack by jihadists in Libiri, in Niger’s Tillabéri region, earlier this month, which left 21 civilians dead. Before Niger’s military seized power in July 2023, pro-Russian narratives in the country had blamed the insecurity on western alliances under the ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum , despite Niger outperforming its Moscow-aligned neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso, in combating jihadists. The new military government, led by Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, has leaned into anti-western sentiment, claiming they could better address extremist threats. However, jihadist violence has escalated in the 18 months since the coup, with about 1,599 deaths reported – more than double the 770 recorded under democratic rule , according to the civilian violence monitor Acled. Islamic State – Sahel Province , an affiliate of the group formerly known as Isis, has claimed responsibility for recent attacks on civilians and military outposts in Tillabéri, a region where groups linked to both IS and al-Qaida are active. Women and girls are especially vulnerable, facing rape and enslavement amid escalating violence and dwindling international aid and attention. The junta’s inability to counter jihadist operations, coupled with its expulsion of western media, has obscured the plight of women, according to a senior Nigerien analyst in the capital, Niamey. The media bans and expulsions of journalists have allowed propaganda to flourish, claiming military success against the insurgents and covering up attacks. “With the continued censorship and expulsion of media, the conflict in Niger will soon become a forgotten war, and more women and children will suffer for the junta’s incompetency,” the analyst said. More than a dozen displaced women in Tillabéri told the Guardian how the extremists exploit the existing patriarchal system. The deliberate killing of male relatives and those who resist is a tactic to tighten control over women, leaving them vulnerable to further subjugation under jihadist rule, they say. “Last September, when our settlement was raided, an assailant asked why my 15-year-old daughter was not married,” says Mariama, 41, a widow in Tillabéri. “Then the other assailant took off her clothes and raped her.” At least 90 soldiers were reported to have been killed in a recent jihadist assault on Chatoumane town, according to eyewitness reports and intelligence. The Nigerien junta and Russian-backed media claimed only 10 men were lost. Experts argue that Russia’s focus in Niger and the Sahel is on supporting military juntas to protect client regimes, and there is no interest in combating extremism or supporting civilians. The junta leaders announcing the Alliance of Sahel States in Niamey in July. From left, Mali’s Assimi Goïta, Niger’s Tchiani and Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré. Photograph: M Hamidou/Reuters Joseph Siegel, research director at the US Department of Defense’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies, calls this dynamic “the great paradox” of the partnerships between Sahelian juntas and Russia. Nevertheless, Niger has pledged to bolster cooperation with the military juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali by forming a new security pact, the Alliance of Sahel States. The three nations also plan to formally withdraw from the west African regional economic and political union , Ecowas. Nathaniel Powell, a researcher at Oxford Analytica, a global risk consultancy, says: “While Bazoum’s strategy weakened jihadist recruitment in Tillabéri by offering demobilisation pathways, it did not involve negotiations with jihadist leaders, who had little interest in such talks. “But the Niger junta focuses on military solutions to jihadist threats, rejecting diplomatic efforts,” says Powell, who believes the junta’s strategy has increased civilian casualties. In 2023, nearly 42% of Niger’s 26 million people were living in poverty, with 4.4 million in immediate need of humanitarian aid . The country ranked the fourth lowest of 193 countries in the UN’s latest Human Development Index . Foreign assistance makes up nearly 40% of its budget, but the coup led to international aid being cut off . The economic strain from sanctions and aid cuts has heavily affected displaced women in Niger, who face food insecurity as well as fear of attacks and sexual violence. Healthcare shortages, particularly in maternal and reproductive services, have worsened, being restricted by the junta and inaccessible in jihadist-controlled areas. Fatimatu Zahra, 21, from Tillaberi, who lost her relatives in a jihadist attack last year, struggles with the high cost and scarcity of menstrual supplies. Unable to afford pads, she uses old fabrics or leaves instead. “I don’t feel ashamed,” Zahra says. “Many women in similar situations do the same.” The Nigerien military government did not respond to requests for comment. © 2025 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. (dcr)

A child who lost his left leg after accidentally stepping on a landmine in his family's paddy fields in central Myanmar. © UNICEF/Minzayar Oo By Vibhu Mishra 30 January 2025 I  Peace and Security        The UN Secretary-General on Thursday said Myanmar’s military must relinquish power to allow a return to civilian rule through an inclusive democratic transition, as the country marks four years since the junta seized power.         Following the coup, President Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi were detained and the country was plunged into a humanitarian and human rights crisis that has only worsened amid an intensifying civil conflict. “ Secretary-General António Guterres condemns all forms of violence and calls on all parties to the conflict to exercise maximum restraint, uphold human rights and international humanitarian law, and prevent further incitement of violence and intercommunal tensions,” UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in statement .  The situation in Myanmar is in freefall , with nearly 20 million people – a third of the population – expected to need humanitarian aid this year. Hunger has reached alarming levels, with 15 million people projected to face acute food insecurity in 2025, up from 13.3 million last year. The cost of basic food staples has risen by 30 percent in the past year due to soaring inflation and supply chain disruptions caused by conflict . “Even if some food is available in local markets, people simply don't have the resources to buy the basics, which means they are eating less and going hungry,” said  Michael Dunford, UN World Food Programme ( WFP ) Representative in Myanmar. Conflict, displacement and economic collapse Fighting between junta forces and opposition armed groups – marked by indiscriminate aerial bombardments, village burnings, and executions – has displaced over 3.5 million people within the country. Many others have fled across borders seeking safety, particularly in Thailand and Bangladesh. Those in conflict-affected areas, including Chin, Kachin, Rakhine and Sagaing regions, are suffering the worst levels of food insecurity. The collapse of Myanmar’s economy, combined with access restrictions and disasters, has left communities on the brink. Concerns over elections Secretary-General Guterres also expressed concerns over the military’s plan to hold elections, warning that intensifying conflict and widespread human rights violations do not permit free and peaceful polls. He said more cooperation was essential on the part of political and military leaders to bring an end to hostilities and help the people of Myanmar forge a path towards an inclusive democratic transition. “ A viable future for Myanmar must ensure safety, accountability, and opportunity for all its communities, including the Rohingya, and address the root causes of conflict, discrimination and disenfranchisement in all its forms ,” the statement noted. End the nightmare Tom Andrews, the UN’s independent human rights expert on Myanmar, criticized the junta’s election plans as “a fraud,” stressing that it is not possible to hold a legitimate vote while arresting, detaining, and executing opposition leaders and criminalizing media freedom. “ Junta forces have slaughtered thousands of civilians, bombed and burned villages, and displaced millions of people. More than 20,000 political prisoners remain behind bars ,” he said . “The economy and public services have collapsed. Famine and starvation loom over large parts of the population,” he added. Best days lie ahead Calling on the international community “to help end the nightmare” in Myanmar, Mr. Andrews praised the resilience of Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists, journalists, and humanitarian workers who continue to document abuses and provide aid. “ The resilience and courage of Myanmar’s people continue to amaze and inspire others around the world …These heroic efforts are compelling indicators that Myanmar’s best days lie ahead,” he said. The Special Rapporteur urged governments to impose stronger sanctions, restrict the junta’s access to weapons and support international justice mechanisms, including efforts to bring Myanmar’s military leaders to justice  in the International Criminal Court  (ICC). “Impunity has enabled a decades-long cycle of violence and oppression in Myanmar. Ultimately, this sad chapter of Myanmar’s history must end with junta leaders being prosecuted for their crimes ,” he said. Mandated and appointed by the Geneva-based Human Rights Council , Mr. Andrews is works independently of the UN Secretariat. He is not a staff member and draws no salary. © 2025 United Nations.

Counting the costs of losing Ukraine The Washington Post January 31, 2025 By  George F. Will Ukrainian soldiers participate in military exercises in the country's Chernihiv region on Friday, January 31, 2025. (Maksym Kishka/Reuters) Yes, by all means, Secretary of State Marco Rubio should be “realistic” about Ukraine. Let’s win. In the aftermath of costly U.S. frustrations in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, advocating foreign policy “realism” is often shorthand for modest assessments of what U.S. power can accomplish in a world less malleable than many policymakers once thought. Those three interventions involved attempts to cause democratic institutions to take root in inhospitable social soil. The U.S. intervention in Ukraine — the proxy war with Russia  is  a war — is different. And the cost of losing even, perhaps especially, a proxy war can be steep. When Secretary of State  Marco Rubio says  we should be “realistic” regarding Ukraine, he is not, one hopes, worrying about U.S. prestige. The bigger danger is excessive pessimism about what can be achieved, and a too-sanguine calculation of a low cost of choosing defeat. Before he became vice president,  JD Vance said , “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine.”  Richard Moore , head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service, MI6,  says the cost  of not supporting Ukraine “would be infinitely higher” than the cost of supporting it.   Ukrainian troops short of ammunition in September 2024 …credit The Washington Post Elaine McCusker, Frederick W. Kagan and Richard Sims, in their American Enterprise Institute report “ Dollars and Sense : America’s Interest in a Ukrainian Victory,” explain why. They estimate that a five-year $808 billion increase in defense spending would be necessary if Vladimir Putin prevails and menaces Eastern and Central Europe. That is seven times more than the cost they estimate of preventing a 2026 collapse of Ukraine’s military — a cost consisting mostly of money spent in the United States on weapons production. The AEI report projects the budgetary consequences of Ukraine’s defeat: more than 900,000 Russian troops along a new 2,600-mile front between NATO and Russia. This would require the counter-positioning of U.S. and other NATO forces. Russia could conscript battle-tested Ukrainians into its military. For decades, NATO has not configured forces to fight a conventional war in Europe. To the cost of quickly ramping up the surge capacity of the U.S. defense industrial base, add the cost of 266,000 more military personnel. The report does not estimate the costs of the refugee and humanitarian crisis that would be caused by what Russia has shown is in store for occupied Ukraine: murder, pillage, mass rape, barbaric torture, the kidnapping of children. (See the Yale School of Public Health’s  report on Russia ’s “deportation, re-education, and coerced adoption and fostering of children from Ukraine,” as after Russia’s 2014 occupation of Crimea.) Putin’s Russia is hardly an irresistible force. Andrei Kolesnikov of the  Finnish Institute of International Affairs , writing in  Foreign Affairs , notes that to control inflation — now more than 9 percent and rising — Russia’s central bank has a benchmark interest rate of 21 percent. The quick collapse of the Russia-friendly Assad regime in Syria, and the hostility of the Erdogan regime in Turkey (it has called for the return of Crimea to Ukraine), underscores Putin’s futilities after a quarter-century in power. Up to 1 million Russians, many young and talented, have left Putin’s country. It has suffered  700,000 dead and wounded  since Feb. 24, 2022, all for its current occupation of about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. As  The Post has reported , Putin’s redlines “are constantly being crossed”: His warnings against giving Ukraine modern fighter jets, main battle tanks and long-range missiles delayed, but did not prevent, their deliveries. Losing a war in which the dying is done by proxies would tell Putin that the West’s pain threshold is contemptibly low. His dangerous disdain is already evident as he wages barely covert warfare across Europe: assassinations, arson, likely attacks on undersea cables and other sabotage. All wars end. This one will, either with negotiations or with a Ukrainian collapse presaging another war.  Michael McFaul , former ambassador to Russia (2012-2014), now at Stanford and the Hoover Institution, correctly says ( in Foreign Affairs ) that Putin will negotiate seriously only when his forces no longer have the capacity to seize more territory. McFaul thinks that for the negotiations to achieve more than an interval between Putin aggressions, Ukraine needs “the credible deterrence that only NATO can offer.” NATO membership might be currently unattainable. More military muscle for Ukraine is not. Aid sufficient to produce a durable stalemate, and unendurable costs for Putin’s regime, is the way for the United States and its NATO allies to avoid being penny wise and pound foolish. Success, such as it might be in Ukraine, will be unsatisfying but much less costly than failure to achieve it. And defeat in Ukraine is a  choice .   George F. Will writes a twice-weekly column on politics and domestic and foreign affairs. He began his column with The Post in 1974, and he received the Pulitzer Prize for commentary in 1977. His latest book, "American Happiness and Discontents," was released in September 2021. follow on X@georgewill Copyright 2025 The Washington Post

The United Nations Fails Sudan, Again   By Rebecca Tinsley   Founder, Waging Peace In Sudan ten million civilians, a quarter of the population, have fled their homes to escape indiscriminate bombing by the warring parties; more than six million face starvation. There are also serious geopolitical implications whichever of Sudan’s battling militias wins: the Russians and the Iranians will secure military bases on the Red Sea, with the power to menace international trade; Islamists will once more gain influence; and millions of Sudanese will try to migrate to Europe. Yet, a deadly combination of racism (“this is what happens in Africa”) and other conflicts competing for the headlines (“compassion fatigue”) has sidelined Sudan. In response, the United Nations calls on all sides to adhere to international law. Those responsible for the killing have so far faced no consequences, concluding that they can continue the slaughter with impunity. The UN Secretary General’s report to the Security Council on October 28th had echoes of Bosnia, thirty years ago. In practice, Antonio Guterres’s proposals will keep Sudanese civilians alive with humanitarian aid so the militias can kill them at their leisure. So long as the UN does nothing to halt the flood of weapons into Sudan, the conflict will continue. Speaking at Chatham House in London on October 31st, former prime minister Dr Abdullah Hamdok commented that Guterres’s report “fell short of saying anything.” Twenty years ago, at the height of the targeted ethnic killing in Darfur, I interviewed survivors in an IDP camp there. One eighteen-year-old woman called Hawa had been raped so many times she could no longer sit down, even weeks later. She was assaulted, branded, and called a slave by the Janjaweed militia. The Janjaweed has since rebranded as the Rapid Support Force, today fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces for control of Sudan’s lucrative economy which has been in the hands of military factions for decades. Hawa’s message was simple: “I want to thank your government for sending the food and blankets, but what we really need is for you to take the guns away from the men killing us.”   UN Secretary General Guterres’s report to the Security Council made clear that the same racist motivation guides the targeted killing of non-Arab Sudanese today, and it includes mass rape, torture and atrocities. Moreover, the violence now affects much of the country beyond Darfur. The US envoy, Tom Perriello, suggests 150,000 may have been killed since hostilities erupted in April 2023. The Security Council has access to a wealth of UN-generated information about atrocities occurring in Sudan. On October 29th, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan reported that the scale of sexual violence being committed is “staggering” and widespread, with girls as young as eight and women as old as 75 targeted for rape and sexual slavery. The report accused both sides of sexual violence, but said the Rapid Support Forces were responsible for the “large majority” of gang rapes and rape as “punishment for perceived links to their opponents.” Other UN agencies are monitoring human rights violations and coordinating the provision of aid in refugee camps in neighboring countries such as Chad, where more than a million Sudanese have fled. However, the UN Secretary General failed to confront the diplomatically inconvenient facts by naming names: the UN’s own investigation shows that the United Arab Emirates is supplying weapons to the Rapid Support Forces, brazenly flying planes into the region. Yet, the UN will not extend the (unenforced) Darfur arms embargo to cover all of Sudan. Egypt, Russia and Iran are backing the Sudanese Armed Forces, although their roles are not mentioned by Guterres. The Secretary General urged all sides to attend peace negotiations and to obey international law. Yet, neither side will stop fighting so long as they believe they can prevail. While outside countries supply weapons, the carnage will not stop. Nor is the UN calling for a no-fly zone over Sudan to prevent the continual bombardment of civilians. Guterres ruled out intervention to protect civilians or deliver aid. This is embarrassing territory for the UN: it was the withdrawal of the UN/African Union peacekeepers from Darfur in 2020 (despite warnings from NGOs and civil society) that signaled to Sudan’s militias that they could resume their campaigns of ethnic slaughter unimpeded. Unsurprisingly, the conflict has spread from Darfur to most regions of Sudan because the stakes – control of the economy and the opportunity to return Sudan to the Islamist fold – are so high. The UN Secretary General calls for good behavior from men with guns who daily prove that they have no concern for civilians. Sudanese civil society, including Dr Hamdok of the Taggadum alliance against the war, has responded by asking the international community to stop waiting for a ceasefire and to start finding ways to protect civilians. Both militias control how much aid enters Sudan and how it is distributed, using starvation as a weapon of war. The US envoy believes the Sudanese Armed Forces allow only 10% of aid arriving in Port Sudan to reach those in need. Back in May 2023, the warring parties signed the Jeddah Declaration, promising to protect civilians and allow unfettered humanitarian aid access. Both sides broke their promises within hours but faced no consequences because there was no mechanism to hold them to account. Leading figures in the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces have bank accounts and business entities registered in Gulf nations, and yet no meaningful action has been taken to apply targeted smart sanctions on them or to freeze their assets. Making sanctions personal is the only way the militias will take notice. Calls for monitoring and recording human rights violations are important for future accountability, but are of little comfort to the millions of Sudanese currently in daily jeopardy. The UN Secretary General rightly praised Sudan’s civil society for stepping in as their government has collapsed. But Emergency Response Rooms and Resistance Committees, the community-based support systems, deserve direct and immediate funding to deliver humanitarian aid and medical services to the long-suffering population. They cannot wait for the diplomatic etiquette that renders the UN toothless.   * Waging Peace is a human rights group. It campaigns for justice and supports Sudanese refugees.   First published by Ariel University Center for the Research and Study of Genocide https://www.ariel.ac.il/wp/rsg/ Twitter: Ariel University Genocide Research Center @ariel_genocide   Copyright 2025 Rebecca Tinsley

The strike on one of the last operational hospitals in El-Fasher, Darfur, also injured dozens more. The attack comes amid escalating violence between Sudan's army and the paramilitary RSF. Le Monde with AFP January 25 2025 This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital, center, in El Fasher, Sudan, Saturday, Jan. 25, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP) A drone attack on one of the last functioning hospitals in El-Fasher in Sudan's Darfur region has killed 67 people and injured dozens, local activists and a medical source said Saturday, updating an earlier toll. "Thirty-seven of those injured in the drone strike yesterday died today, bringing the number of victims up to 67," the source told AFP, requesting anonymity for fear of retaliation. He added that a number of those injured were still being treated, but could not give an exact figure. The bombing of the Saudi Hospital late Friday had "led to the destruction" of the hospital's emergency building, the source said. AFP could not independently verify which of Sudan's warring sides had launched the attack. Since April 2023, the Sudanese army has been at war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have seized nearly the entire vast western region of Darfur. Since May they have besieged El-Fasher, the state capital of North Darfur, but have not managed to claim the city where army-aligned militias have repeatedly pushed them back. Last week, the RSF issued an ultimatum demanding army forces and allies leave the city by Wednesday afternoon in advance of an expected offensive. Local activists have reported intermittent fighting since, including repeated artillery fire from the RSF on the famine-hit Abu Shouk displacement camp. On Friday morning alone, heavy shelling killed eight people in the camp, according to civil society group the Darfur General Coordination of Camps for the Displaced and Refugees. The United Nations has voiced alarm, calling on both parties to ensure the protection of the city's civilian population – some two million people. "The people of El-Fasher have suffered so much already," Seif Magango, spokesman of the UN rights office, said Wednesday. RSF drones According to the medical source, the Saudi Hospital's emergency building had been hit by an RSF drone "a few weeks ago". Between December 9 and January 14, Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab observed three advanced drones at the RSF-controlled Nyala Airport, some 200 kilometres (124 miles) south. In its report, it said the Chinese-made drones have "significant electronic surveillance and warfare capabilities and can be equipped with air-to-ground munitions", but could not verify which countries had purchased them. The United Arab Emirates has been repeatedly accused of funnelling weapons, including drones, to the RSF. United Nations experts determined in December 2023 the allegations were "credible", but Abu Dhabi has issued repeated denials in the face of mounting international criticism. In December, it assured the outgoing administration of US president Joe Biden that it was "not now transferring any weapons" to the RSF. But on Friday, two US lawmakers said the UAE had violated its promises to Washington and "is continuing to provide weapons" to the RSF – who the United States concluded earlier this month had committed "genocide" in Darfur. Army gains The RSF's latest attempt to consolidate its hold on war-ravaged Darfur – a vast region about the size of France, home to a quarter of Sudan's population – comes as the army claims significant victories elsewhere. Some 850 kilometres east, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Saturday toured the Jaili oil refinery, the country's largest, a day after his forces reclaimed it. In a statement, his ruling Transitional Sovereignty Council said Burhan "pledged to rebuild what the militia had destroyed" and rehabilitate a key economic resource. The military on Friday also broke a paramilitary siege on its Khartoum headquarters, which the RSF had encircled since the war began in April 2023. Earlier this month, the army successfully wrested control of key state capital Wad Madani, just south of Khartoum, from the RSF. Since the war began, both the army and the RSF have been accused of war crimes, including targeting civilians and indiscriminately shelling residential areas. Before leaving office on Monday, the Biden administration sanctioned Burhan, accusing the army of attacking schools, markets and hospitals and using food deprivation as a weapon of war. Across the country, up to 80 percent of healthcare facilities have been forced out of service, according to official figures. In El-Fasher, where ambulances and hospital buildings have been routinely targeted, medical charity Doctors Without Borders said this month the Saudi Hospital was "the only public hospital with surgical capacity still standing". The war has so far killed tens of thousands, uprooted more than 12 million and brought millions to the brink of mass starvation. In the area around El-Fasher, famine has already taken hold in three displacement camps – Zamzam, Abu Shouk and Al-Salam – and is expected to expand to five more areas including the city itself by May, according to a UN-backed assessment. Le Monde with AFP

End Repeated, Arbitrary Harassment of Civil Society Organizations Men in downtown Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, November 3, 2021. © 2021 Eduardo Soteras/AFP via Getty Images (Nairobi) – Ethiopian authorities have shut down two more prominent human rights organizations in recent weeks as part of their escalating crackdown against civil society, Human Rights Watch said today. The authorities should immediately rescind the decision and stop targeting independent voices. In late December 2024, the Ethiopian Authority for Civil Society Organizations, a government body that oversees civil society groups, suspended the  Ethiopian Human Rights Council , the country’s oldest independent human rights organization, and the  Ethiopian Human Rights Defenders Center , on allegations they lacked independence and were acting beyond their mandate. “The Ethiopian authorities over the past year have waged a relentless assault against human rights groups,” said  Mausi Segun , Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “By suspending groups engaged in critical human rights documentation and advocacy, the government is showcasing its intolerance of independent scrutiny.” The suspensions came a few weeks after the government’s civil society authority had  suspended three other prominent rights groups: the Center for the Advancement of Rights and Democracy (CARD), Lawyers for Human Rights (LHR), and the Association for Human Rights in Ethiopia (AHRE). The authorities temporarily  lifted the suspension of CARD and LHR on December 11, but reinstated it on December 17. The government alleged that the two organizations did not “ learn from past mistakes ” and had not taken corrective measures after receiving a warning. The ban on AHRE was not reinstated. The suspensions mirror  past intimidating bureaucratic tactics that had crippled human rights work in the country. For  over a decade, Ethiopian authorities restricted the right to freedom of association and the work of civil society organizations through repressive laws such as the 2009  Charities and Societies Proclamation . Under the law, the government had broad discretion to freeze organizations’ assets and order their closure. Human Rights Watch  found that the law enabled the government to decimate civil society activities and human rights activism in the country. In 2019, the Ethiopian government adopted the Organization of Civil Societies Proclamation , which replaced an abusive 2009 proclamation, and removed many of the intrusive powers of the civil society authority.  Article 77(4) of the 2019 law empowers the agency to issue a suspension order if, during the course of its investigation, it finds that the group has carried out a “grave violation of law.” Yet article 78 outlines several administrative steps that the agency should take, including issuing warning notices in writing specifying alleged violations, and allowing the relevant organizations adequate time to address concerns, before issuing a suspension. Human Rights Watch found that the government’s allegations against the affected rights organizations, based on vague and politicized grounds, were inconsistent with provisions of the country’s civil society law. CARD had also said that the government did not follow the required procedures under the 2019  Charities and Societies Proclamation , including by failing to provide prior written notice that the groups were not in compliance with the law. The four organizations are engaging with the civil society authority regarding their suspensions.  The suspension of prominent rights groups sends a chilling signal to rights advocates regarding the government’s intolerance of human rights work, Human Rights Watch said. The suspensions follow a series of government attempts in the past year to silence criticism in the country, including through  arbitrary arrests and detention ,  surveillance, and threats . In July 2024, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hinted at increased government repression when he  remarked before parliament that it was important to  examine human rights institutions and their procedures . The national Ethiopian Human Rights Commission issued a  statement expressing concern about the recent suspensions. As one of the few human rights entities operating in Ethiopia, the commission, as well as the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, should speak out more strongly about the government’s increased targeting of civil society groups and human rights defenders. Independent public scrutiny and documentation of Ethiopia’s rights situation also remain crucial to assess the government’s willingness to ensure meaningful accountability and redress for ongoing atrocities in the country, notably in the conflict-affected Amhara and Oromia regions. African regional rights mechanisms, including the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, as well as Ethiopia’s foreign partners, notably the  United States and  France , should demonstrate their support for the critical role of independent civil society by publicly and privately condemning these suspensions and threats, Human Rights Watch said. Both the United States and France have provided  assistance to the government’s civil society authority that regulates nongovernmental groups and should condition their support on the agency’s respect for civil society and civic space. France has also provided  assistance to some of the suspended rights groups. Those donors, together with other countries, have also supported the government’s transitional justice process meant to address the atrocities committed during the devastating  two-year conflict in northern Ethiopia , as well as abuses in the country since 1995.  The participation of independent civil society organizations, such as the suspended rights groups, is crucial for the credibility of the transitional justice process. Opposition groups and national and international human rights institutions have already  criticized the process for lacking transparency and oversight. The government’s gradual weakening of international involvement  in the transitional justice process , despite a  prominent call from Ethiopia’s international partners , further curtails opportunities for objective scrutiny and monitoring of the process. The Ethiopian government’s hostility to international oversight is not new. However, with ongoing rights abuses, and by largely closing the country to crucial documentation by independent rights groups and regional and international oversight mechanisms, the government has made it difficult to assess whether its transitional justice process is credible and can bring genuine accountability for past and ongoing abuses in the country, Human Rights Watch said. “Regional and international rights institutions and concerned governments should act in a coordinated, decisive manner to press Ethiopian authorities to halt the attack on human rights defenders in the country,” Segun said. “Failing to do so would signal a green light for even more egregious acts of repression.” © 2025 Human Rights Watch

Ponchaud’s 1977 book “Cambodge, année zero” was one of the first detailed accounts of the horrors that unfolded after the communist takeover. By David Whitehouse 28 January 2025 A man wanders through the Tuol Sleng Genocide Museum in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, a monument to the horrors of Khmer Rouge rule. Credit: ID 47056750 © Presse750 | Dreamstime.com François Ponchaud, the French missionary who revealed the reality of Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge to the outside world, has died aged 85. Ponchaud spent 56 years of his life as a missionary in Cambodia, and was the first to provide an authoritative account of the horrors committed by Pol Pot’s genocidal regime which ruled Cambodia from 1975 to 1979. The world was willing to hope for the best when the Khmer Rouge took control of Phnom Penh in April 1975. The previous regime of Lon Nol had been corrupt, and the war between Lon Nol’s forces and the insurgents was over. The Khmer Rouge immediately ordered the entire population of Phnom Penh and other cities in Cambodia to leave for the countryside, citing the threat of imminent bombing by the United States. The claim that the U.S. was about to attack seemed plausible. It had already carried out massive bombing campaigns in Cambodia as an overspill of the war in Vietnam. The Khmer Rouge used the perceived danger for their own ends. The real aim of the Khmer Rouge was the abolition of all private property in an extreme form of agrarian communism which amounted to an end to urban life. The regime systematically slaughtered its own people and allowed others to die of starvation. Estimates of the total number of victims range from 1.5 million to 3 million, or as much as a quarter of the population. Ponchaud took refuge in the French embassy in April 1975, and in May was one of the last foreigners deported from Cambodia. He published articles in La Croix and Le Monde newspapers alerting the world to the reality of the new regime. His book “Cambodge, année zero” was published in 1977, and is based on 94 interviews with Cambodian refugees on the Thai border in 1975 and 1976. “There is no justification for so few voices being raised in protest against the assassination of a people,” Ponchaud wrote. “How many of those who approve the Cambodian revolution without reserve would accept a centimeter of the current suffering of the Cambodian people? . . . France has organizations for animal protection. They have factories where they make dog and cat food. Are Cambodians worth less than animals?” “Black Misery” Ponchaud was born in November 1939 in Sallanches in the Haute-Savoie, southeastern France, the seventh in a family of 12 children. He joined the Missions Étrangères de Paris (MEP) missionary order in 1957, and was ordained as a priest in France in 1964. The MEP sent Ponchaud to Cambodia, where he arrived by boat in 1965 and set about studying Khmer, a language that he mastered. After leaving Cambodia in 1975, Ponchaud highlighted the plight of Cambodians who had succeeded in fleeing the Khmer Rouge to Thailand, where the conditions in the refugee camps were atrocious, as well as in North America and Europe. The Khmer Rouge regime was ended in early 1979 by a Vietnamese invasion, though conflict between Vietnam and the retreating Khmer Rouge continued through the 1980s, culminating in the signing of the Paris Peace Agreements of 1991. Ponchaud returned to Cambodia in 1993. He established the Cambodian Catholic Cultural Center to teach Khmer to foreign volunteers in Cambodia, and translated the Bible into Khmer. Ponchaud in 2013 testified to the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC), set up by the Cambodian government and the United Nations, to try Khmer Rouge officials. Speaking in Khmer, Ponchaud told the ECCC that the Khmer Rouge revolt had initially seemed to bring hope to the population. An arbitrary land seizure by Sihanouk in 1967 to make way for a sugar factory in Samlaut in western Cambodia triggered a rebellion and contributed to the emergence of the Khmer Rouge. The Lon Nol regime, which came to power in 1970, had led to rampant corruption in government, but not as bad as that which existed in 2013, Ponchaud said. I heard Ponchaud speak at a MEP fundraising event for Cambodia held in Paris in November 2018. He explained that the work of the MEP in Cambodia had changed over the years, with the modern aim being to improve education for children rather than converting them to Christianity. Children were now left to decide for themselves on religious questions, he said. Ponchaud strongly criticized Cambodian dictator Hun Sen, a commander in the Khmer Rouge from 1970 to 1977, and his entourage for amassing private fortunes while the rural population lived in “black misery.” He expressed his support for Cambodia’s banned opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party, led by Kem Sokha. The knowledge gained over the decades led to more published works. “La cathédrale de la rizière : 450 ans d’histoire de l’Église au Cambodge, ” published in 1990, is a valuable resource for historians of state colonialism and missionary activity. Ponchaud returned permanently to France in 2021. He died on 17 January at a missionary retirement home in Lauris. Ponchaud was cremated according to his wishes in solidarity with the Cambodian people. © 2025 DIPLOMAT MEDIA INC.